Masahiro Tanaka is having an incredible year in the Japanese Pacific League throwing a 1.24 ERA over 212 innings pitched winning all 24 games he started. This has gotten MLB teams interested in him. This post will list some Japan prospects who had recent success in the majors ending with Hideki Matsui, one of the more famous successful transfers.
Masahiro Tanaka
Masahiro has had a colossal 2013 but his previous years are very good as well. That WAA discerns a lot of stats and league averages into a single number it provides an easy way to spot year to year trends. Everyone varies year to year; the best less so. How does WAA in the Japanese league translate into WAA for MLB? It can’t. They are different leagues. The next set of tables give an idea as to how other transfers went with respect to WAA. Since the data pool of Japanese players transferring to MLB is so small it is not possible to determine a statistical average for this difference that makes any sense. To determine what Masahiro might be worth to an MLB franchise requires good old fashion scouting knowledge, a bit of guesswork, risk management, and some luck.
Year | WAA | BA/IP | OBP/ERA | PA/G | RBI/W | R/L | Name_Tm | BAT/PITCH |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2007 | -1.0 | 186.1 | 3.82 | 28 | 11 | 7 | Masahiro_Tanaka_Tohoku_Rakuten_Golden_Eagles_XYZ_jpl | PITCH |
2008 | 1.7 | 172.2 | 3.49 | 25 | 9 | 7 | Masahiro_Tanaka_Tohoku_Rakuten_Golden_Eagles_XYZ_jpl | PITCH |
2009 | 7.9 | 189.2 | 2.33 | 25 | 15 | 6 | Masahiro_Tanaka_Tohoku_Rakuten_Golden_Eagles_XYZ_jpl | PITCH |
2010 | 5.5 | 155.0 | 2.50 | 20 | 11 | 6 | Masahiro_Tanaka_Tohoku_Rakuten_Golden_Eagles_XYZ_jpl | PITCH |
2011 | 9.3 | 226.1 | 1.27 | 27 | 19 | 5 | Masahiro_Tanaka_Tohoku_Rakuten_Golden_Eagles_XYZ_jpl | PITCH |
2012 | 4.9 | 173.0 | 1.87 | 22 | 10 | 4 | Masahiro_Tanaka_Tohoku_Rakuten_Golden_Eagles_XYZ_jpl | PITCH |
2013 | 12.1 | 212.0 | 1.27 | 28 | 24 | 0 | Masahiro_Tanaka_Tohoku_Rakuten_Golden_Eagles_XYZ_jpl | PITCH |
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Hisashi Iwakuma
Here’s a case of a Japanese pitcher performing in the MLB about equal to his performance in Japanese league. Being a pitcher might help because he might have a pitching style that MLB batters haven’t seen.
Year | WAA | BA/IP | OBP/ERA | PA/G | RBI/W | R/L | Name_Tm | BAT/PITCH |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2007 | 0.5 | 90.0 | 3.40 | 16 | 5 | 5 | Hisashi_Iwakuma_Tohoku_Rakuten_Golden_Eagles_XYZ_jpl | PITCH |
2008 | 10.0 | 201.2 | 1.87 | 28 | 21 | 4 | Hisashi_Iwakuma_Tohoku_Rakuten_Golden_Eagles_XYZ_jpl | PITCH |
2009 | 3.2 | 169.0 | 3.25 | 24 | 13 | 6 | Hisashi_Iwakuma_Tohoku_Rakuten_Golden_Eagles_XYZ_jpl | PITCH |
2010 | 5.6 | 201.0 | 2.82 | 28 | 10 | 9 | Hisashi_Iwakuma_Tohoku_Rakuten_Golden_Eagles_XYZ_jpl | PITCH |
2011 | 1.6 | 119.0 | 2.42 | 17 | 6 | 7 | Hisashi_Iwakuma_Tohoku_Rakuten_Golden_Eagles_XYZ_jpl | PITCH |
2012 | 2.5 | 125.3 | 3.16 | 30 | 9 | 5 | Hisashi_Iwakuma_SEA | PITCH |
2013 | 6.3 | 219.7 | 2.66 | 33 | 14 | 6 | Hisashi_Iwakuma_SEA | PITCH |
Yu Darvish
Yu Darvish had a slightly above average year his first year in the majors and had a very good 2013 but around half what he contributed to his Japanese league. A > 5 WAA is a $12+M player to that team. Perhaps his upside is +10 WAA. We’ll have to wait and see.
Year | WAA | BA/IP | OBP/ERA | PA/G | RBI/W | R/L | Name_Tm | BAT/PITCH |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2007 | 8.8 | 207.2 | 1.82 | 26 | 15 | 5 | Yu_Darvish_Nippon_Ham_Fighters_XYZ_jpl | PITCH |
2008 | 10.0 | 200.2 | 1.88 | 25 | 16 | 4 | Yu_Darvish_Nippon_Ham_Fighters_XYZ_jpl | PITCH |
2009 | 10.2 | 182.0 | 1.73 | 23 | 15 | 5 | Yu_Darvish_Hokkaido_Nippon_Ham_Fighters_XYZ_jpl | PITCH |
2010 | 10.6 | 202.0 | 1.78 | 26 | 12 | 8 | Yu_Darvish_Hokkaido_Nippon_Ham_Fighters_XYZ_jpl | PITCH |
2011 | 8.6 | 232.0 | 1.44 | 28 | 18 | 6 | Yu_Darvish_Hokkaido_Nippon_Ham_Fighters_XYZ_jpl | PITCH |
2012 | 0.6 | 191.3 | 3.90 | 29 | 16 | 9 | Yu_Darvish_TEX | PITCH |
2013 | 5.3 | 209.7 | 2.83 | 32 | 13 | 9 | Yu_Darvish_TEX | PITCH |
Koji Uehara
He’s MVP of the ALCS. He has been a consistent +2 WAA player until this year. Overall I would estimate he halved his value moving to the MLB. This should be expected however since the average MLB player is higher than that of the Japanese league.
Year | WAA | BA/IP | OBP/ERA | PA/G | RBI/W | R/L | Name_Tm | BAT/PITCH |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1999 | 9.7 | 197.2 | 2.09 | 25 | 20 | 4 | Koji_Uehara_Yomiuri_Giants_XYZ_jcl | PITCH |
2000 | 1.1 | 131.0 | 3.57 | 20 | 9 | 7 | Koji_Uehara_Yomiuri_Giants_XYZ_jcl | PITCH |
2001 | -0.8 | 138.2 | 4.02 | 24 | 10 | 7 | Koji_Uehara_Yomiuri_Giants_XYZ_jcl | PITCH |
2002 | 4.7 | 204.0 | 2.60 | 26 | 17 | 5 | Koji_Uehara_Yomiuri_Giants_XYZ_jcl | PITCH |
2003 | 4.9 | 207.1 | 3.17 | 27 | 16 | 5 | Koji_Uehara_Yomiuri_Giants_XYZ_jcl | PITCH |
2004 | 7.1 | 163.0 | 2.60 | 22 | 13 | 5 | Koji_Uehara_Yomiuri_Giants_XYZ_jcl | PITCH |
2005 | 3.6 | 187.1 | 3.31 | 27 | 9 | 12 | Koji_Uehara_Yomiuri_Giants_XYZ_jcl | PITCH |
2006 | 2.0 | 168.1 | 3.21 | 24 | 8 | 9 | Koji_Uehara_Yomiuri_Giants_XYZ_jcl | PITCH |
2007 | 3.1 | 62.0 | 1.74 | 55 | 4 | 3 | Koji_Uehara_Yomiuri_Giants_XYZ_jcl | PITCH |
2008 | -0.2 | 89.2 | 3.81 | 26 | 6 | 5 | Koji_Uehara_Yomiuri_Giants_XYZ_jcl | PITCH |
2009 | 0.5 | 66.7 | 4.05 | 12 | 2 | 4 | Koji_Uehara_BAL | PITCH |
2010 | 1.3 | 44.0 | 2.86 | 43 | 1 | 2 | Koji_Uehara_BAL | PITCH |
2011 | 2.6 | 47.0 | 1.72 | 43 | 1 | 1 | Koji_Uehara_BAL | PITCH |
2011 | -0.0 | 18.0 | 4.00 | 22 | 1 | 2 | Koji_Uehara_TEX | PITCH |
2011 | 2.5 | 65.0 | 2.35 | 65 | 2 | 3 | Koji_Uehara_TOT | PITCH |
2012 | 2.0 | 36.0 | 1.75 | 37 | 0 | 0 | Koji_Uehara_TEX | PITCH |
2013 | 5.0 | 74.3 | 1.09 | 73 | 4 | 1 | Koji_Uehara_BOS | PITCH |
Hiroki Kuroda
Here’s a pitcher who started out inconsistent year to year, then settled down and transferred to MLB with success. Any team would want a pitcher with this kind of consistency year to year.
Year | WAA | BA/IP | OBP/ERA | PA/G | RBI/W | R/L | Name_Tm | BAT/PITCH |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1999 | -5.7 | 87.2 | 6.78 | 21 | 5 | 8 | Hiroki_Kuroda_Hiroshima_Toyo_Carp_XYZ_jcl | PITCH |
2000 | -1.4 | 144.0 | 4.31 | 29 | 9 | 6 | Hiroki_Kuroda_Hiroshima_Toyo_Carp_XYZ_jcl | PITCH |
2001 | 3.4 | 190.0 | 3.03 | 27 | 12 | 8 | Hiroki_Kuroda_Hiroshima_Carp_XYZ_jcl | PITCH |
2002 | -0.3 | 164.1 | 3.67 | 23 | 10 | 10 | Hiroki_Kuroda_Hiroshima_Carp_XYZ_jcl | PITCH |
2003 | 5.1 | 205.2 | 3.11 | 28 | 13 | 9 | Hiroki_Kuroda_Hiroshima_Carp_XYZ_jcl | PITCH |
2004 | -1.0 | 147.0 | 4.65 | 21 | 7 | 9 | Hiroki_Kuroda_Hiroshima_Carp_XYZ_jcl | PITCH |
2005 | 5.1 | 212.2 | 3.17 | 29 | 15 | 12 | Hiroki_Kuroda_Hiroshima_Carp_XYZ_jcl | PITCH |
2006 | 8.6 | 189.1 | 1.85 | 26 | 13 | 6 | Hiroki_Kuroda_Hiroshima_Carp_XYZ_jcl | PITCH |
2007 | 1.1 | 179.2 | 3.56 | 26 | 12 | 8 | Hiroki_Kuroda_Hiroshima_Carp_XYZ_jcl | PITCH |
2008 | 2.6 | 183.3 | 3.73 | 31 | 9 | 10 | Hiroki_Kuroda_LAN | PITCH |
2009 | 1.3 | 117.3 | 3.76 | 21 | 8 | 7 | Hiroki_Kuroda_LAN | PITCH |
2010 | 3.3 | 196.3 | 3.39 | 31 | 11 | 13 | Hiroki_Kuroda_LAN | PITCH |
2011 | 4.6 | 202.0 | 3.07 | 32 | 13 | 16 | Hiroki_Kuroda_LAN | PITCH |
2012 | 3.7 | 219.7 | 3.32 | 33 | 16 | 11 | Hiroki_Kuroda_NYA | PITCH |
2013 | 2.8 | 201.3 | 3.31 | 32 | 11 | 13 | Hiroki_Kuroda_NYA | PITCH |
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Hideki Matsui
I could be wrong about this but as far as my search goes post 2000, except for Ichiro Suzuki Hideki Matsui is the only other Japan batter prospect to have sustained success in MLB. Here are his jcl stats along with only his first three MLB years to illustrate his initiation into MLB. He clearly provided value to the Yankees but less than the value he had in Japan Central League (jcl).
Year | WAA | BA/IP | OBP/ERA | PA/G | RBI/W | R/L | Name_Tm | BAT/PITCH |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1999 | 7.2 | 0.304 | 0.416 | 572 | 95 | 100 | Hideki_Matsui_Yomiuri_Giants_XYZ_jcl | BAT |
2000 | 10.5 | 0.316 | 0.438 | 589 | 108 | 116 | Hideki_Matsui_Yomiuri_Giants_XYZ_jcl | BAT |
2001 | 9.2 | 0.333 | 0.463 | 611 | 104 | 107 | Hideki_Matsui_Yomiuri_Giants_XYZ_jcl | BAT |
2002 | 10.4 | 0.334 | 0.461 | 623 | 107 | 112 | Hideki_Matsui_Yomiuri_Giants_XYZ_jcl | BAT |
2003 | 2.9 | 0.287 | 0.353 | 695 | 106 | 82 | Hideki_Matsui_NYA | BAT |
2004 | 6.0 | 0.298 | 0.390 | 680 | 108 | 109 | Hideki_Matsui_NYA | BAT |
2005 | 7.1 | 0.305 | 0.367 | 704 | 116 | 108 | Hideki_Matsui_NYA | BAT |
The next post to this series will examine the rise and fall of Kosuke Fukudome, a batter transferring from a Japan league who never quite made it in MLB.