MLB announced their MVP winners for 2013 awhile ago and I forgot to make a post about it. In the previous post this data model correctly picked the two best players from the two Japanese baseball leagues, Japan Central and Japan Pacific. How did this model fare with the two MVP picks? The AL winner was Miguel Cabrera and the NL winner was Andrew McCutchen who plays for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Since this model treats both AL and NL as one bowl of soup so to speak all my rankings mix NL and AL players so you’ll have to discern them on your own. I posted a list of the top ten MLB players according to this model back in mid October. Below is a repost of that table which not only combines AL and NL but also BATters and PITCHers. The way WAA is calculated batters can be compared numerically with pitchers.
Rank | WAA | BA/IP | OBP/ERA | PA/G | RBI/W | R/L | Name_Tm | BAT/PITCH |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 11.8 | 236.0 | 1.83 | 33 | 16 | 9 | Clayton_Kershaw_LAN | PITCH |
2 | 11.6 | 0.348 | 0.442 | 652 | 137 | 103 | Miguel_Cabrera_DET | BAT |
3 | 10.6 | 0.286 | 0.370 | 673 | 138 | 103 | Chris_Davis_BAL | BAT |
4 | 8.8 | 0.302 | 0.401 | 710 | 125 | 103 | Paul_Goldschmidt_ARI | BAT |
5 | 7.6 | 0.300 | 0.389 | 602 | 94 | 103 | Matt_Holliday_SLN | BAT |
6 | 7.0 | 172.7 | 2.19 | 28 | 12 | 6 | Jose_Fernandez_MIA | PITCH |
7 | 7.0 | 0.309 | 0.395 | 600 | 103 | 84 | David_Ortiz_BOS | BAT |
8 | 6.9 | 0.319 | 0.396 | 629 | 109 | 89 | Freddie_Freeman_ATL | BAT |
9 | 6.7 | 0.272 | 0.370 | 621 | 104 | 90 | Edwin_Encarnacion_TOR | BAT |
10 | 6.7 | 178.3 | 2.27 | 26 | 9 | 5 | Matt_Harvey_NYN | PITCH |
From the above table Miguel Cabrera was an obvious choice but something is wrong with the NL MVP pick. McCutchen isn’t even in the top ten MLB players. Based on this model Clayton Kershaw was the best player in MLB but they probably didn’t want to give MVP to a pitcher who already won a Cy Young. Let’s assume only batters get it this year. The above table lists Paul Goldschmidt, Matt Holliday, and Freddie Freeman as NL batters in the top ten MLB players. So where does McCutchen rank? I decided to throw out pitchers and isolate batters in the below table.
Rank | WAA | BA/IP | OBP/ERA | PA/G | RBI/W | R/L | Name_Tm | BAT/PITCH |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 11.6 | 0.348 | 0.442 | 652 | 137 | 103 | Miguel_Cabrera_DET | BAT |
2 | 10.6 | 0.286 | 0.370 | 673 | 138 | 103 | Chris_Davis_BAL | BAT |
3 | 8.8 | 0.302 | 0.401 | 710 | 125 | 103 | Paul_Goldschmidt_ARI | BAT |
4 | 7.6 | 0.300 | 0.389 | 602 | 94 | 103 | Matt_Holliday_SLN | BAT |
5 | 7.0 | 0.309 | 0.395 | 600 | 103 | 84 | David_Ortiz_BOS | BAT |
6 | 6.9 | 0.319 | 0.396 | 629 | 109 | 89 | Freddie_Freeman_ATL | BAT |
7 | 6.7 | 0.272 | 0.370 | 621 | 104 | 90 | Edwin_Encarnacion_TOR | BAT |
8 | 6.6 | 0.285 | 0.318 | 689 | 108 | 100 | Adam_Jones_BAL | BAT |
9 | 6.1 | 0.323 | 0.432 | 716 | 97 | 109 | Mike_Trout_ANA | BAT |
10 | 5.8 | 0.256 | 0.337 | 505 | 87 | 73 | Brandon_Moss_OAK | BAT |
11 | 5.7 | 0.262 | 0.329 | 697 | 109 | 89 | Jay_Bruce_CIN | BAT |
12 | 5.7 | 0.318 | 0.392 | 717 | 78 | 126 | Matt_Carpenter_SLN | BAT |
13 | 5.7 | 0.259 | 0.360 | 578 | 92 | 79 | Mike_Napoli_BOS | BAT |
14 | 5.6 | 0.255 | 0.302 | 626 | 101 | 84 | Alfonso_Soriano_TOT | BAT |
15 | 5.5 | 0.318 | 0.398 | 532 | 82 | 84 | Jayson_Werth_WAS | BAT |
16 | 5.3 | 0.302 | 0.367 | 436 | 70 | 72 | Carlos_Gonzalez_COL | BAT |
17 | 5.3 | 0.315 | 0.373 | 563 | 97 | 71 | Allen_Craig_SLN | BAT |
18 | 5.2 | 0.345 | 0.402 | 336 | 57 | 62 | Hanley_Ramirez_LAN | BAT |
19 | 4.9 | 0.312 | 0.391 | 512 | 82 | 72 | Troy_Tulowitzki_COL | BAT |
20 | 4.8 | 0.261 | 0.310 | 666 | 103 | 80 | Brandon_Phillips_CIN | BAT |
21 | 4.8 | 0.283 | 0.339 | 687 | 99 | 91 | Hunter_Pence_SFN | BAT |
22 | 4.7 | 0.234 | 0.294 | 678 | 100 | 85 | Mark_Trumbo_ANA | BAT |
23 | 4.7 | 0.331 | 0.389 | 540 | 84 | 74 | Michael_Cuddyer_COL | BAT |
24 | 4.6 | 0.292 | 0.315 | 466 | 79 | 63 | Wilin_Rosario_COL | BAT |
25 | 4.6 | 0.259 | 0.358 | 528 | 73 | 82 | Jose_Bautista_TOR | BAT |
26 | 4.5 | 0.279 | 0.362 | 712 | 106 | 82 | Prince_Fielder_DET | BAT |
27 | 4.4 | 0.301 | 0.384 | 668 | 93 | 89 | Josh_Donaldson_OAK | BAT |
28 | 4.4 | 0.314 | 0.383 | 681 | 107 | 81 | Robinson_Cano_NYA | BAT |
29 | 4.4 | 0.304 | 0.334 | 652 | 84 | 90 | Torii_Hunter_DET | BAT |
30 | 4.3 | 0.291 | 0.336 | 579 | 88 | 75 | Marlon_Byrd_TOT | BAT |
31 | 4.2 | 0.233 | 0.296 | 614 | 100 | 70 | Pedro_Alvarez_PIT | BAT |
32 | 4.0 | 0.317 | 0.404 | 674 | 84 | 97 | Andrew_McCutchen_PIT | BAT |
33 | 4.0 | 0.273 | 0.338 | 470 | 65 | 68 | Jarrod_Saltalamacchia_BOS | BAT |
McCutchen posted a 4.0 WAA which is quite good but nowhere near MVP. Choosing MVP is done by voting and not necessarily scientific. Andrew McCutchen is a nice person and fan favorite so that probably had a lot to do with him winning. Pittsburgh won on their pitching and actually had below average hitting as a team. Soon I will get into more detail how that was calculated.
Here are the top ten most valuable Pirates for 2013 according to WAA.
Rank | WAA | BA/IP | OBP/ERA | PA/G | RBI/W | R/L | Name_Tm | BAT/PITCH |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 4.2 | 71.0 | 1.39 | 72 | 3 | 2 | Mark_Melancon_PIT | PITCH |
2 | 4.2 | 0.233 | 0.296 | 614 | 100 | 70 | Pedro_Alvarez_PIT | BAT |
3 | 4.0 | 0.317 | 0.404 | 674 | 84 | 97 | Andrew_McCutchen_PIT | BAT |
4 | 3.2 | 161.0 | 3.02 | 26 | 16 | 8 | Francisco_Liriano_PIT | PITCH |
5 | 3.1 | 73.7 | 2.08 | 58 | 6 | 1 | Justin_Wilson_PIT | PITCH |
6 | 2.5 | 71.7 | 2.39 | 67 | 3 | 1 | Tony_Watson_PIT | PITCH |
7 | 2.4 | 191.0 | 3.30 | 30 | 10 | 11 | A.J._Burnett_PIT | PITCH |
8 | 1.8 | 73.7 | 2.81 | 57 | 8 | 2 | Vin_Mazzaro_PIT | PITCH |
9 | 1.7 | 117.3 | 3.22 | 19 | 10 | 7 | Gerrit_Cole_PIT | PITCH |
10 | 1.6 | 116.0 | 3.26 | 20 | 7 | 4 | Charlie_Morton_PIT | PITCH |
Eight of the top ten Pirates were pitchers. As a fan of fun to watch players McCutchen could be considered MVP. He did not however bring as many wins to his team as other NL players. If you’re a GM who wants to have an accurate picture of what went on in the 2013 season, the above tables and figures are an accurate representation. The WAA numerical figure discerns many stats and averages into a single number that relates to a player’s value to his team’s win/loss record. Winning games is what matters most in the game of baseball.