Make or break players

Since we’re in the middle of winter baseball news is slow slow slow.  I thought I’d take a random article on baseball and run their mentioned players through this data model to see how their analysis stacks up to our analysis.  Here’s a quote from some blog post entitled Five players in make-or-break seasons.  This blog is affiliated with ESPN.

Keith Law will unveil his Top 100 prospects on Wednesday (you can find his organizational rankings here) so I thought I’d look at five former top-100 prospects who are entering crucial, make-or-break seasons.

You can read the link to see their analysis.  Below are career table dumps for the top five players that are going to have a make or break season this year.

Dustin Ackley

Dustin shows a lot of negatives and outfielders are supposed to produce.

Year WAA BA OBP PA RB R Name_Tm BAT/PITCH
2010 -0.2 0.274 0.338 237 23 37 Dustin_Ackley_Tacoma_Rainiers_SEA_pcl BAT
2010 -1.1 0.263 0.389 350 28 42 Dustin_Ackley_West_Tenn_Diamond_Jaxx_SEA_sl BAT
2011 0.6 0.303 0.421 331 35 57 Dustin_Ackley_Tacoma_Rainiers_SEA_pcl BAT
2011 -1.1 0.273 0.348 376 36 39 Dustin_Ackley_SEA BAT
2012 -1.8 0.226 0.294 668 50 84 Dustin_Ackley_SEA BAT
2013 0.6 0.365 0.472 126 14 21 Dustin_Ackley_Tacoma_Rainiers_SEA_pcl BAT
2013 -2.2 0.253 0.319 427 31 40 Dustin_Ackley_SEA BAT

Starlin Castro

How can you have a -2.2 WAA and hit 0.300 in the year 2010?  When most of your hits are in situations that don’t matter.  In situations that matter, like with runners in scoring position, you can’t hit them in.  Although Castro had an overall average of 0.300, he hit only 0.256 in RISP situations in 2010.  See here to see his RISP numbers for 2013. He was third to last.

Year WAA BA OBP PA RBI R Name_Tm BAT/PITCH
2009 -0.2 0.288 0.347 122 14 11 Starlin_Castro_Tennessee_Smokies_CHN_sl BAT
2010 1.4 0.376 0.421 121 20 20 Starlin_Castro_Tennessee_Smokies_CHN_sl BAT
2010 -2.2 0.300 0.347 506 41 53 Starlin_Castro_CHN BAT
2011 -0.1 0.307 0.341 715 66 91 Starlin_Castro_CHN BAT
2012 -0.3 0.283 0.323 691 78 78 Starlin_Castro_CHN BAT
2013 -5.5 0.245 0.284 705 44 59 Starlin_Castro_CHN BAT

Ike Davis

Ike had a pretty decent 2011 and 2012.

Year WAA BA OBP PA RBI R Name_Tm BAT/PITCH
2009 2.4 0.309 0.386 233 43 30 Ike_Davis_Binghamton_Mets_NYN_east BAT
2010 0.3 0.364 0.500 42 4 8 Ike_Davis_Buffalo_Bisons_NYN_int BAT
2010 0.9 0.264 0.351 601 71 73 Ike_Davis_NYN BAT
2011 1.5 0.302 0.383 149 25 20 Ike_Davis_NYN BAT
2012 2.8 0.227 0.308 584 90 66 Ike_Davis_NYN BAT
2013 1.3 0.293 0.424 92 13 21 Ike_Davis_Las_Vegas_51s_NYN_pcl BAT
2013 -1.1 0.205 0.326 377 33 37 Ike_Davis_NYN BAT

Desmond Jennings

Production might be a little low for a center fielder but Jennings has been above average according to this model every year he has been in MLB.

Year WAA BA OBP PA RBI R Name_Tm BAT/PITCH
2008 -0.0 0.259 0.360 102 6 17 Desmond_Jennings_Vero_Beach_Devil_Rays_TBA_fla BAT
2009 1.2 0.325 0.419 137 17 23 Desmond_Jennings_Durham_Bulls_TBA_int BAT
2009 1.8 0.316 0.395 440 45 69 Desmond_Jennings_Montgomery_Biscuits_TBA_sl BAT
2010 1.7 0.278 0.362 458 36 82 Desmond_Jennings_Durham_Bulls_TBA_int BAT
2010 0.2 0.190 0.292 24 2 5 Desmond_Jennings_TBA BAT
2011 2.2 0.275 0.374 397 39 68 Desmond_Jennings_Durham_Bulls_TBA_int BAT
2011 0.6 0.259 0.356 287 25 44 Desmond_Jennings_TBA BAT
2012 -0.2 0.167 0.167 12 0 1 Desmond_Jennings_Durham_Bulls_TBA_int BAT
2012 0.7 0.246 0.314 563 47 85 Desmond_Jennings_TBA BAT
2013 0.9 0.252 0.333 598 54 81 Desmond_Jennings_TBA BAT

Devin Mesoraco

As a catcher -0.1 WAA isn’t bad.  In general catchers have problems hitting.  Out of all 9 fielders in any given inning, the catcher is the most important defensive asset.  His batting numbers aren’t that bad according to the below table so it will depend upon his defensive numbers.  Soon I’ll be weaving defensive analysis into this model. Based upon the numbers below I don’t see Mesoraco as having a make or break season this year.

Year WAA BA OBP PA RBI R Name_Tm BAT/PITCH
2010 1.4 0.335 0.414 181 31 24 Devin_Mesoraco_Lynchburg_Hillcats_CIN_car BAT
2010 0.5 0.231 0.310 58 13 5 Devin_Mesoraco_Louisville_Bats_CIN_int BAT
2010 2.7 0.294 0.363 212 31 42 Devin_Mesoraco_Carolina_Mudcats_CIN_sl BAT
2011 2.5 0.289 0.371 499 71 60 Devin_Mesoraco_Louisville_Bats_CIN_int BAT
2011 -0.0 0.180 0.226 53 6 5 Devin_Mesoraco_CIN BAT
2012 -0.5 0.167 0.211 19 0 0 Devin_Mesoraco_Louisville_Bats_CIN_int BAT
2012 -1.1 0.212 0.288 184 14 17 Devin_Mesoraco_CIN BAT
2013 -0.1 0.238 0.287 352 42 31 Devin_Mesoraco_CIN BAT