Summary: This will be the last WAR vs WAA post for awhile and I only include it because Darwin Barney’s WAR rating inspired me to devise the WAA rating. If things slow down later in the year perhaps we can examine historical ratings from season best to career best. I have done that analysis and in general, over the long term for great careers, WAR and WAA ratings are extremely close. Where WAR and WAA differ the most is on a season basis where statistical anomalies can pollute the data.
I started this data model last spring when someone pointed out that Darwin Barney had a WAR=4.8 which was the highest on the Chicago Cubs that year. I didn’t think Barney was anywhere near the best Cub that year let alone being considered one of the best non-pitcher in the league.
Like the previous post we’ll show the top either WAR overrated or WAA underrated differences for 2012. Darwin Barney tops the list. Below are the rank and pertinent stats table of the top 5 in that category. Then we’ll list top 5 Cubs for both systems.
WAA vs WAR 2012 batters
| Diff | WAR | WAA | Name_tm |
|---|---|---|---|
| 462 | 27 | 489 | Darwin_Barney_CHN |
| 419 | 22 | 441 | Denard_Span_MIN |
| 387 | 34 | 421 | Erick_Aybar_ANA |
| 262 | 12 | 274 | Michael_Bourn_ATL |
| 238 | 19 | 257 | Martin_Prado_ATL |
| WAR | WAA | BA | OBP | PA | RBI | R | Name_Tm | BAT/PITCH |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.8 | -2.0 | 0.254 | 0.299 | 588 | 44 | 73 | Darwin_Barney_CHN | BAT |
| 5.1 | -1.4 | 0.283 | 0.342 | 568 | 41 | 71 | Denard_Span_MIN | BAT |
| 4.3 | -1.3 | 0.290 | 0.324 | 554 | 45 | 67 | Erick_Aybar_ANA | BAT |
| 6.0 | -0.4 | 0.274 | 0.348 | 703 | 57 | 96 | Michael_Bourn_ATL | BAT |
| 5.5 | -0.3 | 0.301 | 0.359 | 690 | 70 | 81 | Martin_Prado_ATL | BAT |
2012 Chicago Cubs WAA and WAR rankings
The following tables will show the top three players on the 2012 Chicago Cubs according to each system.
Ranked according to WAA
Alfonso Soriano should have been listed as the Cubs best player for 2012. Ryan Dempster would have rated higher but he got traded mid season so isn’t listed here.
| WAR | WAA | BA/IP | OBP/ERA | PA/G | RBI/W | R/L | Name_Tm | BAT/PITCH |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | 3.9 | 0.262 | 0.322 | 615 | 108 | 68 | Alfonso_Soriano_CHN | BAT |
| 0.7 | 1.5 | 69.3 | 3.25 | 77 | 7 | 7 | James_Russell_CHN | PITCH |
| 1.8 | 1.3 | 174.7 | 3.81 | 28 | 9 | 9 | Jeff_Samardzija_CHN | PITCH |
Ranked according to WAR
And here is Darwin Barney amongst the other top rated 2012 Cubs according to WAR. Starlin Castro also seems to have garnered a rather large WAR rating. Was it the 0.323 OBP that propelled him or his league leading 27 errors?
| WAR | WAA | BA/IP | OBP/ERA | PA/G | RBI/W | R/L | Name_Tm | BAT/PITCH |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.8 | -2.0 | 0.254 | 0.299 | 588 | 44 | 73 | Darwin_Barney_CHN | BAT |
| 3.6 | -0.3 | 0.283 | 0.323 | 691 | 78 | 78 | Starlin_Castro_CHN | BAT |
| 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.285 | 0.342 | 368 | 48 | 44 | Anthony_Rizzo_CHN | BAT |