Darwin Barney

Summary: This will be the last WAR vs WAA post for awhile and I only include it because Darwin Barney’s WAR rating inspired me to devise the WAA rating.  If things slow down later in the year perhaps we can examine historical ratings from season best to career best.  I have done that analysis and in general, over the long term for great careers, WAR and WAA ratings are extremely close.  Where WAR and WAA differ the most is on a season basis where statistical anomalies can pollute the data.

I started this data model last spring when someone pointed out that Darwin Barney had a WAR=4.8 which was the highest on the Chicago Cubs that year. I didn’t think Barney was anywhere near the best Cub that year let alone being considered one of the best non-pitcher in the league.

Like the previous post we’ll show the top either WAR overrated or WAA underrated differences for 2012.  Darwin Barney tops the list.  Below are the rank and pertinent stats table of the top 5 in that category.  Then we’ll list top 5 Cubs for both systems.

WAA vs WAR 2012 batters

Diff WAR WAA Name_tm
462 27 489 Darwin_Barney_CHN
419 22 441 Denard_Span_MIN
387 34 421 Erick_Aybar_ANA
262 12 274 Michael_Bourn_ATL
238 19 257 Martin_Prado_ATL
WAR WAA BA OBP PA RBI R Name_Tm BAT/PITCH
4.8 -2.0 0.254 0.299 588 44 73 Darwin_Barney_CHN BAT
5.1 -1.4 0.283 0.342 568 41 71 Denard_Span_MIN BAT
4.3 -1.3 0.290 0.324 554 45 67 Erick_Aybar_ANA BAT
6.0 -0.4 0.274 0.348 703 57 96 Michael_Bourn_ATL BAT
5.5 -0.3 0.301 0.359 690 70 81 Martin_Prado_ATL BAT

2012 Chicago Cubs WAA and WAR rankings

The following tables will show the top three players on the 2012 Chicago Cubs according to each system.

Ranked according to WAA

Alfonso Soriano should have been listed as the Cubs best player for 2012.  Ryan Dempster would have rated higher but he got traded mid season so isn’t listed here.

WAR WAA BA/IP OBP/ERA PA/G RBI/W R/L Name_Tm BAT/PITCH
2.0 3.9 0.262 0.322 615 108 68 Alfonso_Soriano_CHN BAT
0.7 1.5 69.3 3.25 77 7 7 James_Russell_CHN PITCH
1.8 1.3 174.7 3.81 28 9 9 Jeff_Samardzija_CHN PITCH

Ranked according to WAR

And here is Darwin Barney amongst the other top rated 2012 Cubs according to WAR.  Starlin Castro also seems to have garnered a rather large WAR rating.  Was it the 0.323 OBP that propelled him or his league leading 27 errors?

WAR WAA BA/IP OBP/ERA PA/G RBI/W R/L Name_Tm BAT/PITCH
4.8 -2.0 0.254 0.299 588 44 73 Darwin_Barney_CHN BAT
3.6 -0.3 0.283 0.323 691 78 78 Starlin_Castro_CHN BAT
2.3 0.8 0.285 0.342 368 48 44 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN BAT