Is Homer Bailey worth $17.5M/year?

It’s hard to say. Here are Homer Bailey’s stats compared with Mat Latos, the Reds’ best pitcher in 2013.  Homer Bailey did perform above average the last two years so perhaps the Reds are betting he trends upwards.

Homer Bailey

Year WAA IP ERA G W L Name_Tm BAT/PITCH
2007 -1.4 45.3 5.76 9 4 2 Homer_Bailey_CIN PITCH
2008 -3.2 36.3 7.93 8 0 6 Homer_Bailey_CIN PITCH
2009 -0.7 113.3 4.53 20 8 5 Homer_Bailey_CIN PITCH
2010 -1.1 109.0 4.46 19 4 3 Homer_Bailey_CIN PITCH
2011 -1.7 132.0 4.43 22 9 7 Homer_Bailey_CIN PITCH
2012 1.6 208.0 3.68 33 13 10 Homer_Bailey_CIN PITCH
2013 1.7 209.0 3.49 32 11 12 Homer_Bailey_CIN PITCH

Career WAA PITCH Value = -4.8

Mat Latos

Throwing out his brief appearance in 2009 Latos is averaging +3.2 WAA/season and pretty consistent with no violent performance swings year to year

Year WAA IP ERA G W L Name_Tm BAT/PITCH
2009 -0.4 50.7 4.62 10 4 5 Mat_Latos_SDN PITCH
2010 5.1 184.7 2.92 31 14 10 Mat_Latos_SDN PITCH
2011 2.2 194.3 3.47 31 9 14 Mat_Latos_SDN PITCH
2012 2.6 209.3 3.48 33 14 4 Mat_Latos_CIN PITCH
2013 3.4 210.7 3.16 32 14 7 Mat_Latos_CIN PITCH

Career WAA PITCH Value = 12.9