It’s hard to say. Here are Homer Bailey’s stats compared with Mat Latos, the Reds’ best pitcher in 2013. Homer Bailey did perform above average the last two years so perhaps the Reds are betting he trends upwards.
Homer Bailey
| Year | WAA | IP | ERA | G | W | L | Name_Tm | BAT/PITCH |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | -1.4 | 45.3 | 5.76 | 9 | 4 | 2 | Homer_Bailey_CIN | PITCH |
| 2008 | -3.2 | 36.3 | 7.93 | 8 | 0 | 6 | Homer_Bailey_CIN | PITCH |
| 2009 | -0.7 | 113.3 | 4.53 | 20 | 8 | 5 | Homer_Bailey_CIN | PITCH |
| 2010 | -1.1 | 109.0 | 4.46 | 19 | 4 | 3 | Homer_Bailey_CIN | PITCH |
| 2011 | -1.7 | 132.0 | 4.43 | 22 | 9 | 7 | Homer_Bailey_CIN | PITCH |
| 2012 | 1.6 | 208.0 | 3.68 | 33 | 13 | 10 | Homer_Bailey_CIN | PITCH |
| 2013 | 1.7 | 209.0 | 3.49 | 32 | 11 | 12 | Homer_Bailey_CIN | PITCH |
Career WAA PITCH Value = -4.8
Mat Latos
Throwing out his brief appearance in 2009 Latos is averaging +3.2 WAA/season and pretty consistent with no violent performance swings year to year
| Year | WAA | IP | ERA | G | W | L | Name_Tm | BAT/PITCH |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | -0.4 | 50.7 | 4.62 | 10 | 4 | 5 | Mat_Latos_SDN | PITCH |
| 2010 | 5.1 | 184.7 | 2.92 | 31 | 14 | 10 | Mat_Latos_SDN | PITCH |
| 2011 | 2.2 | 194.3 | 3.47 | 31 | 9 | 14 | Mat_Latos_SDN | PITCH |
| 2012 | 2.6 | 209.3 | 3.48 | 33 | 14 | 4 | Mat_Latos_CIN | PITCH |
| 2013 | 3.4 | 210.7 | 3.16 | 32 | 14 | 7 | Mat_Latos_CIN | PITCH |
Career WAA PITCH Value = 12.9