Dexter Fowler

On Friday, June 10, 2016 at 11:25:44 PM UTC-5, Mordecai Brown wrote:
> I take a snapshot of current year data every
> other day.  This Dexter Fowler WAR fascinated
> me because he did hit #10 in my model earlier
> so I have been watching his
> progress closely all year.
>
> I had to modify some code to make this
> report and now I can do it for any player
> any year.  Here is a table of partial lines
> for Fowler.  I wanted to show BA and OBP
> because they too confirm  my observation
> about Fowler.  I don't compute
> OPS and it would be too much work for
> now to recalculate rank because I forgot
> to save that data off and have to write
> a script to recreate it.  
>
> Here's the daily data.  Date is the snapshot
> date which includes all data up to the
> date before.  So 0414 includes all games up
> to 4/13 of this year.
>
>
> Date|WAA|BA|OBP|NAME_TEAMID|POS
> ------------------------------------------
> 0414 0.57 0.455 0.586 Dexter_Fowler_CHN BAT
> 0416 0.53 0.423 0.559 Dexter_Fowler_CHN BAT
> 0418 0.55 0.424 0.558 Dexter_Fowler_CHN CF
> 0420 0.78 0.375 0.510 Dexter_Fowler_CHN CF
> 0422 0.82 0.375 0.508 Dexter_Fowler_CHN CF
> 0424 1.18 0.393 0.521 Dexter_Fowler_CHN CF
> 0426 1.47 0.385 0.506 Dexter_Fowler_CHN CF
> 0428 1.36 0.385 0.506 Dexter_Fowler_CHN CF
> 0430 1.26 0.368 0.488 Dexter_Fowler_CHN CF
> 0502 1.43 0.347 0.474 Dexter_Fowler_CHN CF
> 0504 1.34 0.350 0.470 Dexter_Fowler_CHN CF
> 0506 1.41 0.352 0.473 Dexter_Fowler_CHN CF
> 0507 1.26 0.340 0.462 Dexter_Fowler_CHN CF
> 0509 1.26 0.337 0.455 Dexter_Fowler_CHN CF
> 0511 1.39 0.340 0.462 Dexter_Fowler_CHN CF
> 0513 1.28 0.339 0.467 Dexter_Fowler_CHN CF
> 0515 1.20 0.333 0.458 Dexter_Fowler_CHN CF
> 0517 1.28 0.331 0.447 Dexter_Fowler_CHN CF
> 0519 1.20 0.331 0.449 Dexter_Fowler_CHN CF
> 0521 0.97 0.319 0.443 Dexter_Fowler_CHN CF
> 0522 1.09 0.315 0.441 Dexter_Fowler_CHN CF
> 0524 1.22 0.324 0.445 Dexter_Fowler_CHN CF
> 0526 1.05 0.314 0.435 Dexter_Fowler_CHN CF
> 0528 1.22 0.319 0.436 Dexter_Fowler_CHN CF
> 0529 1.07 0.318 0.432 Dexter_Fowler_CHN CF
> 0531 1.13 0.316 0.429 Dexter_Fowler_CHN CF
> 0602 1.11 0.316 0.433 Dexter_Fowler_CHN CF
> 0604 0.97 0.313 0.435 Dexter_Fowler_CHN CF
> 0606 0.76 0.305 0.427 Dexter_Fowler_CHN CF
> 0608 0.76 0.303 0.421 Dexter_Fowler_CHN CF
> 0610 0.90 0.307 0.422 Dexter_Fowler_CHN CF
>
> He's now at 0.90 WAA down from his high
> of 1.47 on 4/25.  His BA/OBP was also
> 0.393 /0.521 then and it's down to 0.307/0.422.
> Even old school stats confirm my model.
> Why WAR has him ranked so high is a mystery.
> He's almost in the top ten in WAR ranking
> right now.
>
> It would have been interesting to show
> his daily WAR but I don't have that data
> and can't even reproduce it as its generation
> is also a mystery.
>
> And finally, at 0.9 Fowler is doing well.
> My issue is he's not top of the league
> right now and maybe shouldn't even
> be in the AS game this season.  He
> very much helped make the Cubs so dominant
> in April with his bat.  I'm not dissing
> on Fowler here at all.

I want to show Rizzo who has a WAR=1.8 when
Fowler's WAR was 3.0.  Rizzo has had a very
low BA but a decent OBP throughout the year.
He ends up yesterday at +2.25 WAA compared
to Fowler's 0.9.  Who is right about this?

Date|WAA|BA|OBP|NAME_TEAMID|POS
======================================
0414 1.01 0.240 0.424 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN
0416 0.97 0.207 0.395 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN
0418 0.80 0.189 0.348 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN
0420 0.82 0.186 0.352 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN
0422 0.69 0.163 0.339 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN
0424 1.36 0.186 0.333 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN
0426 1.36 0.185 0.346 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN
0428 1.78 0.203 0.360 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN
0430 1.68 0.205 0.356 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN
0502 1.97 0.218 0.384 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN
0504 1.78 0.220 0.385 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN
0506 2.16 0.242 0.395 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN
0507 2.37 0.253 0.398 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN
0509 2.60 0.257 0.409 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN
0511 2.60 0.270 0.413 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN
0513 2.54 0.281 0.423 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN
0515 2.46 0.275 0.424 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN
0517 2.88 0.279 0.419 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN
0519 2.79 0.273 0.409 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN
0521 2.65 0.259 0.395 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN
0522 2.46 0.253 0.392 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN
0524 2.37 0.245 0.382 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN
0526 2.31 0.239 0.374 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN
0528 2.10 0.234 0.371 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN
0529 2.04 0.234 0.371 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN
0531 1.89 0.229 0.368 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN
0602 2.02 0.239 0.378 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN
0604 1.81 0.238 0.377 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN
0606 2.04 0.246 0.385 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN
0608 2.21 0.251 0.390 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN
0610 2.25 0.260 0.392 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN