1938 Cubs and Gabby Hartnett

On Monday, June 13, 2016 at 4:10:29 PM UTC-5, The old geezer wrote:
> ....hit the "Homer in the Gloamin'" back in '38!!!
> ND: Southern Tier 2X IPA
> NP: She Can't Find Her Keys - Paul Peterson

OK.  You made me lookup homer in the gloamin and Wikipedia
has an entire page on it.


Here are top Cubs today back in 1938.

BAT|PITCH|Rs|Ra|W|L|UR|LR|TeamID 06/14/1938
50.6 20.3 285 201 31 21 15.6 0.9 CHN

BAT a little better than PITCH.  UR=15.6 so
they had very good fielding.  W-L = 31-21=+10
+006+ 3.78 Bill_Lee_CHN PITCH
+016+ 2.77 Augie_Galan_CHN LF-OF
+035+ 2.04 Joe_Marty_CHN OF-CF
+043+ 1.81 Gabby_Hartnett_CHN CR
+044+ 1.76 Tony_Lazzeri_CHN SS
+046+ 1.72 Dizzy_Dean_CHN PITCH

The above would be top 100 today.  I had to
look this up but manager Grimm gets fired
mid season and replaced by Gabby Hartnett.
Here's how they finished the season to make
it into the World Series.

-32.2 121.1 713 598 89 63 28.8 -2.9 CHN
+004+ 10.12 Bill_Lee_CHN PITCH
+017+ 6.66 Clay_Bryant_CHN PITCH
+038+ 4.85 Charlie_Root_CHN PITCH
+047+ 4.07 Dizzy_Dean_CHN PITCH

BAT tanks and PITCH takes off.  They were
lucky to win a pennant with only 89 wins.
Where's Gabby?

+098+ 1.39 Gabby_Hartnett_CHN CR

It must have been difficult for Gabby to
both manage a team and hit because from
now until the end of the season he declines
around 0.5 WAA and loses rank in the process.

The walk off homer helped get them in
the WS but they weren't as good as
these guys.

107.8 -72.9 862 795 84 70 25.8 6.1 DET
+002+ 13.33 Hank_Greenberg_DET 1B
+008+ 8.25 Rudy_York_DET CR-LF-OF
+010+ 7.92 Charlie_Gehringer_DET 2B

There are three guys ending the season
in the top ten. 

Update:  Status lines between DET and CHN in the 1938 World Series show two diametrically opposite teams.  DET has tremendous BAT, CHN below average BAT.  CHN has tremendous PITCH and DET is way below average in that category.  The old saying that defense wins championships wasn’t true in 1938.  It was offense that beat the Cubs.

As we saw in last year’s playoffs, team status lines can deceive.  New York Mets posted an almost completely average BAT  for the year yet their lineup was way way above average because they made deals throughout the season to improve.   It is possible in 1938 DET improved their starting pitching significantly through trades.   If they just improved it to average that would have been significant.

It is probable that CHN having such a high BAT before AS break or trade deadline or however they did things back then caused them not to improve anything with their hitting so that below average -32 BAT probably reflected their playoff roster.

I could drill deeper in this but 1938 is water under the bridge.  Later in the season this data model keeps  track of lineup WAA, relief WAA, and bench WAA.   WAA has additive properties so the value of a set of players is simply the sum of their WAAs.  For each team we can know the WAA for starter, relievers, lineup, and bench for each team.  How these 4 categories interact with the opposition categories to determine a winning probability is still a work in progress.