Top Cubs as of 6/25/2016

Top Cubs

53.1 102.7 384 224 48 25 3.1 1.1 CHN

The Cubs have a real WAA=W-L=+23 which some people call 23 games above 0.500. This is where they were 3 weeks ago. PITCH has remained the same as well as BAT. They are cruising at this altitude. Baseball is a long season and we’re not even to the half way point. No team can hold a 0.700+ record. At least they aren’t going negative by playing below 0.500.

Here are Cubs in top 100
+002+ 5.61 Jake_Arrieta_CHN PITCH
+005+ 4.85 Jon_Lester_CHN PITCH
+016+ 3.49 Kris_Bryant_CHN 3B-LF
+022+ 3.13 Jason_Hammel_CHN PITCH
+025+ 3.04 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B
+035+ 2.83 Kyle_Hendricks_CHN PITCH
+055+ 2.42 Ben_Zobrist_CHN 2B
+074+ 2.08 John_Lackey_CHN PITCH

Zobrist hovered most the season in the top 25 but he’s down to 55 now. There is nothing wrong  with fluctuating like that.  Rizzo was down in the 50s and now he’s back up there. That’s why the Cubs have been playing even steven for these three weeks. Even Lackey with his bad outing  yesterday is still in the  top 100 as well as the other 4 Cubs’  starters. This is still a great team.   Most teams would be happy with 5 guys in the top 100.

Here’s a guy making his way to the top.

XXXXX 0.90 Willson_Contreras_CHN BAT

He only has 24 PA so he’s doing very very well.  Even though not a Cub anymore this guy has  been killing the Cubs these last few games.

+073+ 2.10 Justin_Bour_MIA 1B

We’ll see if he can maintain that all season.

Blast from the Past — 2015

This day last season.

BAT|PITCH|Rs|Ra|W|L|UR|LR|TeamID 06/26/2015
-13.5 32.2 293 276 39 33 -2.0 0.4 CHN
+030+ 2.62 Jason_Hammel_CHN PITCH
+039+ 2.33 Kris_Bryant_CHN 3B
+050+ 2.18 Jake_Arrieta_CHN PITCH
+075+ 1.87 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B

The Cubs real WAA=W-L=+6 and only 4 guys in the top 100. They start to take off right about now  I think.

Here is this day in 2008, the last year   the Cubs had a dominant season even though  they choked in the playoffs.

BAT|PITCH|Rs|Ra|W|L|UR|LR|TeamID 06/26/2008
72.6 26.3 434 328 49 30 2.8 4.2 CHN
+014+ 3.78 Aramis_Ramirez_CHN 3B
+018+ 3.53 Ryan_Dempster_CHN PITCH
+038+ 2.77 Derrek_Lee_CHN 1B
+039+ 2.73 Alfonso_Soriano_CHN OF
+054+ 2.42 Carlos_Zambrano_CHN PITCH
+085+ 1.85 Mark_DeRosa_CHN SS
+099+ 1.68 Reed_Johnson_CHN OF

The Cubs were much better in 2008 than they were in 2015 but not as good as the team the Cubs have now. Their real WAA=+19 on this day in 2008.

Note: In this model, the sum of the number you see in the second column, WAA, for all players on each team must add to (and does) equal the team’s WAA as estimated by Pythagorean Expectation, a formula developed by Bill James a long time ago.

The sum of WAAs for all PITCHers and BATters in MLB must and do always equal exactly zero.

Those two principles have a proof.