Mets Cubs Analysis 7/18/2016

Here we ago again.  I did this 2 1/2 weeks ago
at the start of the last series in New York
when the Cubs got swept.  Here’s what the Ouija
board has to say about today’s game.

DATE 07_18 7:05_PM Jul_18_10:02 NYN CHN
LINEAWAY NYN +156 +140
STARTAWAY 1.97 Steven_Matz_NYN
LINEHOME CHN -166 -150
STARTHOME 3.09 Jon_Lester_CHN

CHN is -150 and it started at -166 so the line
is moving away from CHN.  Matz vs. Lester is
almost exactly what Matz vs. Lackey was
on June 30 except Cubs now have home field
advantage.  Here are the lines on June 30.

DATE 06_30 7:10_PM Jun_30_10:06 CHN NYN
LINEAWAY CHN -109 -125
STARTAWAY 2.12 John_Lackey_CHN
LINEHOME NYN -101 +115
STARTHOME 1.74 Steven_Matz_NYN

Normally an away team will be +118 and a
home team should be -118 with no other
knowledge of the two teams.  The delta
of -150 to -118 is -32 which are the
points above home field advantage the
Cubs are getting right now.

On June 30 the delta from +118 to -125
is -53.  I’m not sure comparing these
two numbers is mathematically legal
but it seems CHN may have lost some
but not a lot of luster these last
2 1/2 weeks.

Let’s look at NYN status lines

BAT|PITCH|Rs|Ra|W|L|UR|LR|TeamID  6/30/2016
-69.2 70.7 276 272 40 37 7.2 -4.7 NYN

BAT|PITCH|Rs|Ra|W|L|UR|LR|TeamID  Today
-60.4 80.8 342 322 48 42 4.9 -5.2 NYN

Their PITCH got better, their BAT got better and their
real WAA=W-L=48-42= +6 so they’re up 3 in that category.

+012+ 4.20 Noah_Syndergaard_NYN PITCH
+028+ 3.57 Jacob_deGrom_NYN PITCH
+053+ 2.81 Bartolo_Colon_NYN PITCH
+086+ 2.31 Yoenis_Cespedes_NYN CF-LF
+091+ 2.18 Addison_Reed_NYN PITCH
+106+ 1.97 Steven_Matz_NYN PITCH

They have 5 guys now in top 100 compared to only
3 on 6/30.  If Matz pitches well they’ll have 6
guys in top 100.  Hopefully the Cubs can drop him
down a bunch of notches today.

NYN is improving and the Ouija board shows that.

That is all for now.  Now that we’re getting late
in the season I’ll need to show lineup values because
as we saw last year, lineups and relief staffs
can be vastly different than from their yearly
stat totals indicate.