Giant Mets Analysis

The Ouija board says!

DATE 10_05 8:05_PM Oct_5_14:02 SFN NYN
LINEAWAY SFN [ 0.512 ] < 0.535 >
STARTAWAY 7.37 Madison_Bumgarner_SFN
LINEHOME NYN [ 0.535 ] < 0.488 >
STARTHOME 6.76 Noah_Syndergaard_NYN

I converted the lines into probabilities they represent which is what they really are.  The number in [] is the starting bid, in <> is current as of this snapshot at 2pm.

It’s moving slightly towards SFN.  Even though both starters are about equal SFN has home field advantage as an away team.  Home field advantage is around 0.540 for the  past 50 or so years.

BAT|PITCH|Rs|Ra|W|L|UR|LR|TeamID
-48.2 94.9 671 617 87 75 12.0 -5.6 NYN
-13.2 71.8 715 631 87 75 16.0 3.4 SFN

Both teams have won through pitching.  SFN’s bat is a bit better.  Both teams have  extraordinary URs, unearned runs above average at +12 and +16.

Bumgarner is a vet and Syndergaard is a relative newbie so the Ouija board tilts towards SFN.  Not sure if it matters who the Cubs play because they had better be able to take either team if they’re a WS champion caliber team.

I don’t have lineups yet but here’s a snapshot of both team’s last game on 10/2.

DATE 10022016
-0.06 Curtis_Granderson_NYN CF
-0.36 Asdrubal_Cabrera_NYN SS
3.74 Jay_Bruce_TOT RF
0.53 Lucas_Duda_NYN 1B
-1.87 Kelly_Johnson_TOT 2B
0.04 Michael_Conforto_NYN LF
-0.25 Eric_Campbell_NYN 3B
-1.91 Kevin_Plawecki_NYN C
-0.04 Gabriel_Ynoa_NYN P
TOTAL -0.19

DATE 10022016
-2.69 Denard_Span_SFN CF
0.82 Brandon_Belt_SFN 1B
2.33 Buster_Posey_SFN C
1.68 Hunter_Pence_SFN RF
1.07 Brandon_Crawford_SFN SS
0.13 Angel_Pagan_SFN LF
1.26 Joe_Panik_SFN 2B
-0.00 Conor_Gillaspie_SFN 3B
-0.65 Matt_Moore_TOT P
TOTAL 3.95

Both lineups better than their status lines but SFN is still a little better hitting wise.
Also note Curtis Granderson, at -0.06, has made a tremendous comeback from a poor start.  Here’s his trajectory since start of August.

08052016 -2.42 Curtis_Granderson_NYN RF
08112016 -2.21 Curtis_Granderson_NYN RF
08152016 -2.50 Curtis_Granderson_NYN RF
08192016 -2.65 Curtis_Granderson_NYN RF
08232016 -2.44 Curtis_Granderson_NYN RF
08282016 -2.62 Curtis_Granderson_NYN RF-CF
09032016 -2.10 Curtis_Granderson_NYN RF-CF
09072016 -1.76 Curtis_Granderson_NYN RF-CF
09112016 -1.53 Curtis_Granderson_NYN RF-CF
09152016 -1.28 Curtis_Granderson_NYN RF-CF
09192016 -1.45 Curtis_Granderson_NYN RF-CF
09252016 -1.07 Curtis_Granderson_NYN RF-CF
09302016 -0.40 Curtis_Granderson_NYN RF-CF
2016-final 0.04 Curtis_Granderson_NYN RF-CF

He’s one the main reasons the Mets are playing this game today.  The Cubs were looking at him a couple years ago IIRC.

We’ll see.

I’ll do Cubbies Friday.