Step away from the ledge

NOTE:  Ironically when I started making this data model in 2013 I covered the St. Louis Cardinals and Boston Red Sox extensively.  Now that my Cubs have a legit shot at a World Series I haven’t done much here at all.  This is because the data model is finished and although data comes in every day I still haven’t found a way to beat the lines put out by Vegas or ESPN.  Now that the Cubbies are down 2-1 I made this analysis.

The Cubs just have to win one in LA to get back home field advantage.  Step away from the ledge.  Here is today’s line…

DATE 10_19 8:05_PM Oct_19_10:02 CHN LAN
LINEAWAY CHN [ 0.545 ] < 0.512 >
STARTAWAY 3.46 John_Lackey_CHN
LINEHOME LAN [ 0.500 ] < 0.512 >
STARTHOME 1.39 Julio_Urias_LAN

At WAA=1.39 Urias is unranked, out of the top 200 so he’s average.  According to an analysis I did awhile ago Cubs do well against average pitchers.  Rich Hill and Kershaw are well above
average.  The Cubs had problems with way above average and for some reason  way below average pitchers (but there won’t be any of them).

The line started giving the Cubs home field advantage but now it’s in we absolutely have
no idea territory.  Flip a coin.  Heads the Cubs win, tails they lose.  It’s that close.

If both games are even steven the probability for LAN to win the next two games are:

P(win next two) = (1/2)*(1/2) = 1/4 or 25%

Same for the Cubs.  So the probability of Cubs returning to Wrigley this year is 1-0.25=0.75 or 75%.  Not too complicated. This series is far from over.  Whoever wins today changes these probabilities drastically.

Here was the Kershaw game line ….

DATE 10_16 8:05_PM Oct_16_18:02 LAN CHN
LINEAWAY LAN [ 0.567 ] < 0.554 >
STARTAWAY 8.57 Clayton_Kershaw_LAN
LINEHOME CHN [ 0.452 ] < 0.467 >
STARTHOME 8.88 Kyle_Hendricks_CHN

The Ouija board had the Dodgers as clear favorites. They didn’t care that Kershaw wasn’t Clayton Kershaw in the playoffs.  I think that when Dave Roberts put Kershaw in to close out the NLDS in a real live game situation that did something to Kershaw’s psyche.  That’s a trait which can   earn one a Manager of the Year trophy.  Let’s hope that’s the only trophy LAN gets.

If the Cubs make it back to Wrigley hopefully Kershaw reverts back to playoff Kershaw.  Then
the Cubs should be OK.