NLCS and Nate Silver

On Friday, October 21, 2016 at 1:23:11 AM UTC-5, Frank Sereno wrote:

> Nate Silver’s Fivethirtyeight.com has installed the Cubs as
> favorites to win the World Series after last night’s win at 51%
> while the Indians are at 39 and the Dodgers at 10.

That’s interesting.  The Vegas lines on this would be far more accurate than Nate Silver.  I don’t have them however.

Although Nate Silver’s  election analysis is the best in industry because polling data can predict the future, he struggles with sports and much of it is simply made up.  It would be interesting to see all his math on this.  Some of the writers who work for him have published complete nonsense with their sports analysis but I digress…

The next two games for the Cubs should be around 50/50.  Kershaw should be favored in Game 6 like he was in game 2 but Arrieta should be equally favored the next game.  To keep the math simple let’s just say even steven both games.

The Dodgers have a 25% chance of going to the World Series, Cubs 3/4 or 75%.

If Nate is giving the Cubs 50% to win the WS that means his handicap for them is  66.6% favorites for the series against Cleveland.  This is quite high.  He thinks Dodgers would be almost even with Cleveland.

For LAN:  0.25 * 0.40 =~ 10%
For CHN:  0.75 * 0.67 =~ 50%

P(CLE) = P(Opponent = LAN)*( 1 – P(LAN)) + P(Opponent = CHN) * (1 – P(CHN))

where P(TeamID) is probability that team wins the series after winning the NLCS.

We know P(LAN) = 0.40 , P(CHN) = 0.67
P(Opponent = LAN) = 0.25
P(Opponent = CHN) = 0.75

Plugging all those numbers in I get Cleveland should be 40%.

> I have to work Saturday so at least I won’t have to hear Joe Buck
> verbally fellate Clayton Kershaw.

It will be funny to listen if Clayton has a bad game which is very much in the realm of possibility.  I will miss Larry King however.Watching Larry squirm and check his watch was priceless.  I hope I never have to see his face on TV  again.