The Ouija Board

It looks like my vegas lines scripts still work.  There are many places to get betting lines for baseball games.  I choose this site because it parses well and stays current.  We aren’t here to arbitrage betting lines.  The lines represent a market which has many different interests pull and pushing in every direction.  The end result of all of this is a very close approximation of an actual probability.   More on this later.

NOTE: This site does not endorse gambling.  If you think you have a system to beat the lines  you most likely don’t.  I have 6 seasons of daily line data and none of my theories can beat them with a reasonable margin.  If you bet baseball on any of these sites you’re gambling and the house has the edge.  You will lose in the long term.  These are posted here for commentary only.

Here is the current line as output by this data model:

DATE 04_19 2:20_PM Apr_19_12:36 MIL CHN
LINEAWAY MIL [ 0.312 ] < 0.357 >
LINEHOME CHN [ 0.706 ] < 0.677 >

The Date line lists the time of game in EST   The second date and time is the snapshot time.  This was done manually for this post.  Usually it’s done automatically.   The LINEAWAY shows the Brewers start out at 31.2% chance today ( the number in [] ) and currently they are at 35.7% chance of winning so the line has moved in their favor.  Pitchers are Milone and Hendricks.  The XXXXX would show their WAA but there isn’t enough seasonal data to make that calculation right now.

Looks like the probability of the Cubs winning is .677.  The Ouija Board likes Kyle Hendricks.