I usually run an analysis of Cubs as a team once a week or two. A baseball season is a marathon and running rankings day by day is like watching grass grow. In between there can be analysis of match ups for which the Vegas lines (aka The Ouija Board) comes in handy. I call it The Ouija Board because like a Ouija Board is supposed to guide the hands of the people using it to hear a message from the beyond, an active betting market somehow settles on a price that translates very close to an actual probability. How a large random group of strangers, all with different ideas and theories, can settle upon that is very mysterious to me. But I digress …
The Cubs are starting a series with the Reds today. Here’s what the Ouija Board says.
DATE 04_21 7:10_PM Apr_21_12:14 CHN CIN
LINEAWAY CHN [ 0.643 ] < 0.667 >
STARTAWAY XXXXX Jon_Lester_CHN
LINEHOME CIN [ 0.370 ] < 0.370 >
STARTHOME XXXXX Tim_Adleman_CIN
This is a 12:14pm snapshot, game starts 7:10pm EST. The line started for the Cubs at .643 ( number in [] ) and moved a little more in favor of CHN ( number in <> ). Adleman is a rookie unknown. Lester is a known known. Cincinnati has had a very good start so far. Here are their Team Status lines:
| BAT | PITCH | Rs | Ra | W | L | UR | LR | TeamID | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.6 | 7.4 | 71 | 52 | 9 | 6 | 3.1 | -0.1 | CIN | |
| 4.7 | 3.3 | 66 | 60 | 8 | 7 | -0.9 | -1.1 | CHN |
Both teams above average BAT and PITCH. Still early in the season but these status lines shows two equal teams playing each other so the only difference is pitching. The Ouija Board is giving a huge advantage to Lester. Without any knowledge of the two teams an away team should be at 0.46, home team at 0.54.
It should be a good series. I only run Ouija Board numbers when they’re interesting. It gets more interesting when we have player evaluations. Until then ….