Now and for the next two weeks is like preseason for this blog since we can’t compile player rankings. Even May can be sketchy but that’s where I begin to use the rankings in this model in simulations to try and beat Vegas lines. I haven’t been able to yet. More on that stuff later.
This post will be an example of comparing with previous seasons. I have daily snapshots of baseball for every game going back to 1911. Before that daily box scores are incomplete. The main feature of this model is to discern the myriad of baseball statistics into a readable, understandable, and mathematically factual format. Since right now we can only see team status lines let’s look at some. Here is the current CHN status line as of yesterday:
| BAT | PITCH | Rs | Ra | W | L | UR | LR | TeamID | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.4 | 2.0 | 84 | 73 | 10 | 7 | -1.0 | -1.4 | CHN |
Cubs are doing well. BAT is up, PITCH is down, but we all know that if we watched the last few games. 🙂 They’re still a little below average in Unearned Runs and Lucky Runs. There is absolutely nothing a team can do to improve Lucky Runs which is why they’re called Lucky. The Cubs have had a little below average luck but they’re still 10-7, which is all that actually matters. Let’s look at where this team was the last couple of years on this date.
| BAT | PITCH | Rs | Ra | W | L | UR | LR | TeamID | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.6 | -0.5 | 66 | 62 | 8 | 7 | 3.5 | 0.4 | CHN | 04/23/2015 | |
| 35.2 | 20.6 | 110 | 51 | 13 | 5 | 1.4 | 1.9 | CHN | 04/23/2016 |
The Cubs were off the charts April last year. In April 2015 they were pretty much an average team which at the time was a huge improvement.
| BAT | PITCH | Rs | Ra | W | L | UR | LR | TeamID | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31.9 | 3.6 | 133 | 94 | 15 | 6 | 0.3 | 3.2 | CHN | 04/23/2008 | |
| 27.4 | 28.6 | 126 | 79 | 13 | 8 | -9.8 | 0.7 | CHN | 04/23/2003 | |
| 13.0 | 6.8 | 79 | 56 | 9 | 6 | 3.5 | -0.4 | CHN | 04/23/1984 | |
| 16.2 | 6.8 | 74 | 53 | 11 | 4 | -2.2 | 0.3 | CHN | 04/23/1969 |
Once you get used to scanning the BAT and PITCH and then the W and L on these status lines you can quickly see when the Cubs have very good Aprils they tend to have very good years. Although they went to the playoffs in 2003, they didn’t finish the season very well but they had an April as good as April was for the Cubs last season.
Edit: That should read; when the Cubs were legitimate contenders they had very good Aprils. In order for me to say what has been stricken above I’d have to check all the years and I know off the top of my head a couple years where the Cubs had very good Aprils and ended with very bad or average years.
Note: Check out the UR= -9.8 in 2003. That is incredibly terrible this early in the season. Even though it didn’t affect their W-L record much, we all know what happened in the NLCS that year.
When you go back past 1969 the dates don’t line up because they started later. Once we get into May we can start comparing current players’ performances to past Cubs players like Gabby Hartnett or Andy Pafko or Ernie Banks. Until then ….