Cubs Status 4/28/2017

I have been compiling rankings but won’t release any until sometime next week.  These rankings are accurate but they will need some explaining because they can be vastly different than WAR rankings.  I will show both for you to decide.  But that’s for another time.

Let’s do simple team analysis.  Here are CHN team status lines for various dates.

BAT PITCH Rs Ra W L UR LR TeamID
11.4 2.0 84 73 10 7 -1.0 -1.4 CHN 4/23/2017
17.8 6.6 109 89 12 9 -4.7 0.2 CHN 4/28/2017

The last snapshot we took was 5 days ago.  Both Cubs’ BAT and PITCH are up even though they went 2-2 during that period.  Their Unearned Runs Above Average (UR) tanked and is now down to -4.7.  That’s near the worst in the league.  PIT is the worst with -7.7.  Not much to this status difference which is why I usually do this every 10 days instead of 5.

Let’s look at the current series with BOS.  Here is where the Ouija Board comes in handy — especially since we have no reliable rankings to look at.

DATE 04_28 7:10_PM Apr_28_10:05 CHN BOS
LINEAWAY CHN [ 0.558 ] < 0.531 >
STARTAWAY XXXXX Jake_Arrieta_CHN
LINEHOME BOS [ 0.463 ] < 0.493 >
STARTHOME XXXXX Drew_Pomeranz_BOS

The XXXXX would be where their WAA value would go.  With no knowledge of the matchup an away team should be at 0.46.  CHN is at 0.53 so they’re getting a premium over BOS.  Let’s look at BOS team status line.

BAT PITCH Rs Ra W L UR LR TeamID
-11.6 14.6 78 77 11 9 -0.7 -1.3 BOS 4/28/2017

BOS is a pitching team this year.  They have about the same record as the Cubs.   Let’s look at the career of their starter today, Drew Pomeranz.

Year WAA Name_TeamID POS Rank
2011 -0.6 Drew_Pomeranz_COL PITCH XXXXX
2012 -1.9 Drew_Pomeranz_COL PITCH -122-
2013 -1.2 Drew_Pomeranz_COL PITCH -241-
2014 2.2 Drew_Pomeranz_OAK PITCH +144+
2015 0.6 Drew_Pomeranz_OAK PITCH XXXXX
2016 4.1 Drew_Pomeranz_SDN PITCH +079+
2016 -0.6 Drew_Pomeranz_BOS PITCH +079+
Total = 2.5

At WAA=2.5 Total  makes him a very slightly above average pitcher over his career.  His best year was 2016 with a WAA=4.1 – 0.6 = 3.5 and his worst year was 2012 with a WAA=-1.9.  This is a very capable starter.  Since BOS has such a high PITCH they probably have a very high value on their relief staff.  We can start making that calculation next month.

Note: We’ll get into more about ranking later.  An XXXXX rank means the pitcher is in purgatory, neither in the top or bottom 200 MLB players.  Ranking is for the entire MLB, both pitchers and batters.  The -number- means a bottom 200 tank, +number+ means a top 200 rank.  More on this later.

tl;dr I have no idea who to bet on.  :-)