Cubs Rockies Matchup

Today the Cubs start a series in Colorado after being swept at home by a very good Yankees team.  Here are the current status lines for the two teams.

BAT PITCH Rs Ra W L UR LR TeamID
13.9 -0.7 154 144 16 15 -4.9 1.6 CHN
13.4 -10.7 152 145 20 12 4.1 0.1 COL

At 20-12 Colarado is top of the league even though their run differential isn’t top of the league.  Regardless, when MLB determines who goes to the playoffs they look at W-L record not run differential.  COL and CHN have almost identical BAT and COL has worse PITCH.  The Cubs have a very bad UR=-4.9 and COL has a UR++4.1 which is quite a difference.  We’ll see how fielding plays out in this series.

Here is what the Ouija Board thinks.

DATE 05_08 8:40_PM May_8_16:17:02 CHN COL
LINEAWAY CHN [ 0.574 ] < 0.565 >
STARTAWAY -0.59 Jake_Arrieta_CHN
LINEHOME COL [ 0.444 ] < 0.476 >
STARTHOME 0.97 Antonio_Senzatela_COL

The Cubs as an away team should be at 0.46 but they’re getting another good premium.  COL has a better starter this season although he’s a rookie.  Arrieta has had a rough start so far and is underwater.  Let’s look at lineups.  Here is COL.

WAA Naem_TeamID Pos PA
1.49 Charlie_Blackmon_COL CF 146
-0.88 DJ_LeMahieu_COL 2B 136
1.07 Nolan_Arenado_COL 3B 133
-0.94 Carlos_Gonzalez_COL RF 116
2.02 Mark_Reynolds_COL 1B 124
0.42 Gerardo_Parra_COL LF 94
0.42 Trevor_Story_COL SS 120
0.21 Ryan_Hanigan_COL C 9
-0.25 Antonio_Senzatela_COL P 15
TOTAL WAA=3.55 PA=893 WinPct=0.576

The Cubs lineup isn’t available yet so here is the lineup they fielded yesterday which should be close to today.

WAA Naem_TeamID Pos PA
0.00 Kyle_Schwarber_CHN LF 128
0.76 Kris_Bryant_CHN 3B 141
0.23 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B 141
0.21 Ben_Zobrist_CHN RF 110
0.46 Addison_Russell_CHN SS 126
0.00 Jon_Jay_CHN CF 64
0.10 Willson_Contreras_CHN C 92
-0.08 Jon_Lester_CHN P 13
0.38 Javier_Baez_CHN 2B 89
TOTAL WAA=2.06 PA=904 WinPct=0.544

Like the BAT RAA on their team status lines, both lineups are very close.  The Ouija Board is banking on the Cubs playing like WS Champions and Arrieta, the veteran, out pitching the rookie starting for COL.  We’ll see.  Until then….