Cubs Reds Matchup

Today the Cubs start a series with the Reds. Let’s see what the Ouija Board has to say after the Cubs lost 2 out of 3 at SLN.

DATE 05_16 8:05_PM May_16_18:17 CIN CHN
LINEAWAY CIN [ 0.361 ] < 0.357 >
STARTAWAY -1.60 Bronson_Arroyo_CIN
LINEHOME CHN [ 0.653 ] < 0.667 >
STARTHOME -0.25 John_Lackey_CHN

The Cubs are heavy favorites at 0.667 which is exactly 2-1. If you want to bet the Cubs today you have to risk $2 to win $1. Bronson Arroyo is having a bad year and is ranked #33 worst MLB player this season. Lackey has fought back and at -0.25 is almost even steven. If he pitches well today he’ll be above average for the season. So the Cubs have home field advantage which gives them 0.54 and a better pitcher. Let’s look at lineups.

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
-0.50 Kyle_Schwarber_CHN LF 160
0.61 Kris_Bryant_CHN RF 162
-0.23 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B 171
0.13 Ian_Happ_CHN CF 8
-0.21 Jeimer_Candelario_CHN 3B 18
0.44 Addison_Russell_CHN SS 146
0.19 Willson_Contreras_CHN C 116
-0.10 John_Lackey_CHN P 14
0.44 Javier_Baez_CHN 2B 119
TOTAL WAA=0.76 PA=914 WinPct=0.516
WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
0.10 Billy_Hamilton_CIN CF 164
0.55 Zack_Cozart_CIN SS 132
2.46 Joey_Votto_CIN 1B 163
1.28 Adam_Duvall_CIN LF 150
1.20 Eugenio_Suarez_CIN 3B 149
0.57 Scott_Schebler_CIN RF 145
-0.73 Jose_Peraza_CIN 2B 147
-1.09 Tucker_Barnhart_CIN C 95
-0.36 Bronson_Arroyo_CIN P 15
TOTAL WAA=3.97 PA=1160 WinPct=0.566

CIN has a much better lineup today. here are their relief numbers.

TeamID WAA IP WinPct
CHN 3.67 139.6 0.618
CIN 2.21 145 0.568

Cubs have better relief pitching but CIN is also well above average and with Arroyo pitching they may need to rely on that today.  The Ouija Board is giving the Cubs a very large premium.  Perhaps they think Arroyo will finish off his lengthy career like Edwin Jackson.  If so the Cubs should get some of their hitting mojo back today.  We can only hope.

We only do one of these per series matchup unless the lines move unexpectedly in either direction.