Cubs Brewers Matchup

Today is a day game so the Cubs are in the top of the 4th down 2-1 and Eddie Butler has thrown 92 pitches which is a lot.   Here’s what the Ouija Board has to say about the game that’s going on right now.

DATE 05_19 2:20_PM May_19_14:17:02 MIL CHN
LINEAWAY MIL [ 0.380 ] < 0.391 >
STARTAWAY 0.00(NA) Paolo_Espino_MIL
LINEHOME CHN [ 0.644 ] < 0.624 >
STARTHOME 0.59(NA) Eddie_Butler_CHN

There’s a new field added in () which will compute the Winpct of the pitcher for context.  Both pitchers above do not have enough innings to make that calculation meaningful.  This is Paolo Espino’s first pitching appearance and Eddie Butler had his first a few days ago and pitched well. The Cubs are favored much higher than standard home field advantage which is 0.54.

Let’s see what kind of team MIL has by examining their status line.

36.8 -3.4 221 190 24 18 2.5 0.1 MIL

You can quickly see they are a hitting team with a well above average BAT and very slightly below average PITCH.  This may be why they’re trying out a new guy today.  MIL is in first place in NL Central.  Let’s peruse lineups.

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA 05192017
0.73 Eric_Sogard_MIL LF 22
2.83 Eric_Thames_MIL 1B 155
0.15 Jonathan_Villar_MIL 2B 180
1.78 Travis_Shaw_MIL 3B 155
0.57 Domingo_Santana_MIL RF 149
0.36 Jett_Bandy_MIL C 87
0.48 Keon_Broxton_MIL CF 139
0.17 Orlando_Arcia_MIL SS 139
TOTAL WAA=7.08 PA=1026 WinPct=0.632
WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA 05192017
-0.19 Kyle_Schwarber_CHN LF 170
0.71 Kris_Bryant_CHN 3B 176
-0.02 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B 185
0.44 Ian_Happ_CHN CF 22
-0.27 Ben_Zobrist_CHN 2B 138
0.23 Willson_Contreras_CHN C 125
0.92 Javier_Baez_CHN SS 127
-0.06 Eddie_Butler_CHN P 3
-0.13 Jon_Jay_CHN RF 86
TOTAL WAA=1.64 PA=1032 WinPct=0.530

Milwaukee has a far better lineup than CHN. Let’s look at relief because with new guys on both teams starting the relief staff may be getting some work today.

TeamID WAA IP WinPct
MIL 2.14 148 0.565
CHN 3.44 149.2 0.604

Both teams have above average relievers with the Cubs slightly better.

Given MIL has much better hitting and starting pitching is a wash because we don’t know and relief staffs are close to equal, the Ouija Board is giving a big premium to the Cubs.  The Ouija Board believes the Cubs will continue to play like they did the last three games at home.

Finally, before hitting post, Cubs up 3-2 in the bottom of the 4th inning, Butler is out, Montgomery is in to probably pitch a bunch of innings.  Until then….

UPDATE 5/20/2017

Yesterday was horrible weather for playing baseball.  Not sure if the Ouija Board took that into account.  The Brewers are a first place team and this model shows they have a good team.  That the Ouija Board is giving such a premium to the Cubs is interesting.  If yesterday was an outlier, let’s look at today’s line even though the game is rained out.

DATE 05_20 2:20_PM May_20_10:17 MIL CHN
LINEAWAY MIL [ 0.330 ] < 0.357 >
STARTAWAY 0.63(0.563) Chase_Anderson_MIL
LINEHOME CHN [ 0.688 ] < 0.667 >
STARTHOME -1.36(0.363) Jake_Arrieta_CHN

Arrieta is having a rough start to this year and Anderson is above average but not quite in the top 200.   The Ouija Board still gives the Cubs a 2/3 probability of winning this game.  Later in the season I’ll present my Ouija Board analysis over the past 6 years of lines for every baseball game.  The bottom line:  It’s very accurate as a whole but for particular games it can be very inaccurate.  Devising an algorithm to discern this is a difficult challenge.  That is all for Ouija Board talk until the next series and matchup analysis.