Today is a day game so the Cubs are in the top of the 4th down 2-1 and Eddie Butler has thrown 92 pitches which is a lot. Here’s what the Ouija Board has to say about the game that’s going on right now.
DATE 05_19 2:20_PM May_19_14:17:02 MIL CHN
LINEAWAY MIL [ 0.380 ] < 0.391 >
STARTAWAY 0.00(NA) Paolo_Espino_MIL
LINEHOME CHN [ 0.644 ] < 0.624 >
STARTHOME 0.59(NA) Eddie_Butler_CHN
There’s a new field added in () which will compute the Winpct of the pitcher for context. Both pitchers above do not have enough innings to make that calculation meaningful. This is Paolo Espino’s first pitching appearance and Eddie Butler had his first a few days ago and pitched well. The Cubs are favored much higher than standard home field advantage which is 0.54.
Let’s see what kind of team MIL has by examining their status line.
You can quickly see they are a hitting team with a well above average BAT and very slightly below average PITCH. This may be why they’re trying out a new guy today. MIL is in first place in NL Central. Let’s peruse lineups.
Milwaukee has a far better lineup than CHN. Let’s look at relief because with new guys on both teams starting the relief staff may be getting some work today.
Both teams have above average relievers with the Cubs slightly better.
Given MIL has much better hitting and starting pitching is a wash because we don’t know and relief staffs are close to equal, the Ouija Board is giving a big premium to the Cubs. The Ouija Board believes the Cubs will continue to play like they did the last three games at home.
Finally, before hitting post, Cubs up 3-2 in the bottom of the 4th inning, Butler is out, Montgomery is in to probably pitch a bunch of innings. Until then….
Yesterday was horrible weather for playing baseball. Not sure if the Ouija Board took that into account. The Brewers are a first place team and this model shows they have a good team. That the Ouija Board is giving such a premium to the Cubs is interesting. If yesterday was an outlier, let’s look at today’s line even though the game is rained out.
DATE 05_20 2:20_PM May_20_10:17 MIL CHN
LINEAWAY MIL [ 0.330 ] < 0.357 >
STARTAWAY 0.63(0.563) Chase_Anderson_MIL
LINEHOME CHN [ 0.688 ] < 0.667 >
STARTHOME -1.36(0.363) Jake_Arrieta_CHN
Arrieta is having a rough start to this year and Anderson is above average but not quite in the top 200. The Ouija Board still gives the Cubs a 2/3 probability of winning this game. Later in the season I’ll present my Ouija Board analysis over the past 6 years of lines for every baseball game. The bottom line: It’s very accurate as a whole but for particular games it can be very inaccurate. Devising an algorithm to discern this is a difficult challenge. That is all for Ouija Board talk until the next series and matchup analysis.