Here’s what the noon snapshot of the Ouija Board says.
DATE 05_22 8:05_PM May_22_12:17 SFN CHN
LINEAWAY SFN [ 0.365 ] < 0.370 >
STARTAWAY -0.17(0.478) Ty_Blach_SFN
LINEHOME CHN [ 0.648 ] < 0.667 >
STARTHOME -0.17(0.484) John_Lackey_CHN
The Cubs again are at 0.667 which is a probability of 2 out of 3 to win this game. According to the above the starting pitchers are of equal value. Cubs have home field which is 0.54 without any other information available. Let’s look at yesterday’s lineups for both teams. Lineups won’t be available for today until later.
| WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | PA | 05212017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.44 | Ben_Zobrist_CHN | 2B | 141 | |
| -0.40 | Kyle_Schwarber_CHN | LF | 174 | |
| 0.50 | Kris_Bryant_CHN | 3B | 180 | |
| -0.13 | Anthony_Rizzo_CHN | 1B | 189 | |
| 0.42 | Ian_Happ_CHN | CF | 26 | |
| 0.27 | Jason_Heyward_CHN | RF | 111 | |
| 0.27 | Willson_Contreras_CHN | C | 129 | |
| 0.71 | Addison_Russell_CHN | SS | 158 | |
| -0.23 | Jake_Arrieta_CHN | P | 18 | |
| TOTAL | WAA=0.99 | PA=1126 | WinPct=0.517 |
| WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | PA | 05212017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.53 | Denard_Span_SFN | CF | 93 | |
| -1.09 | Joe_Panik_SFN | 2B | 165 | |
| -0.27 | Christian_Arroyo_SFN | 3B | 104 | |
| -0.02 | Brandon_Belt_SFN | 1B | 182 | |
| 0.06 | Brandon_Crawford_SFN | SS | 117 | |
| -0.71 | Eduardo_Nunez_SFN | LF | 167 | |
| -0.57 | Nick_Hundley_SFN | C | 77 | |
| 0.02 | Mac_Williamson_SFN | RF | 17 | |
| -0.19 | Matt_Cain_SFN | P | 12 | |
| TOTAL | WAA=-3.30 | PA=934 | WinPct=0.432 |
The Giants have a below average lineup so far this season and the Cubs are slightly above average. Note: The above numbers include all games up to the day before yesterday, not yesterday’s games. That shouldn’t matter much anyway.
Here are relief staff numbers for all games up to today.
| TeamID | WAA | IP | WinPct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SFN | -0.17 | 165.7 | 0.495 | |
| CHN | 3.25 | 158.2 | 0.593 |
SFN is slightly below average. Cubs still top tier. Here’s SFN team status.
| BAT | PITCH | Rs | Ra | W | L | UR | LR | TeamID | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -43.8 | -18.1 | 154 | 217 | 19 | 26 | -0.4 | -0.7 | SFN |
At 19-26, the Giants aren’t having a good start to this season. Both BAT and PITCH are under water. In theory the Cubs should be favored much higher than they were the last two games against a first place team but they’re not. Whatever happens in a single game does not prove or disprove any of this however. We’ll do Cubs’ status in a couple of days. Until then….