Cubs Padres Matchup

Padres are a bad team this year so let’s get this over with.  The Cubs need to win today and the next two afterwards if they want to consider themselves as playoff caliber this season.  Here’s what the Ouija board says (10am snapshot).

DATE 05_29 4:40_PM May_29_10:17 CHN SDN
LINEAWAY CHN [ 0.652 ] < 0.677 >
STARTAWAY 1.11(0.595) Kyle_Hendricks_CHN
LINEHOME SDN [ 0.362 ] < 0.351 >
STARTHOME -0.17(0.453) Jarred_Cosart_SDN

The Cubs are very heavy favorites today with their best starter on the mound. Here’s SDN team status line.

BAT PITCH Rs Ra W L UR LR TeamID
-44.6 40.7 177 271 19 33 -9.7 -3.0 SDN

Everything is wrong with this team and at 19-33 their team WAA=-14. There are a lot of below average players on this team. Let’s look at lineups yesterday.

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA 05282017
0.97 Javier_Baez_CHN 2B 145
1.03 Kris_Bryant_CHN 3B 204
0.50 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B 213
0.23 Ian_Happ_CHN LF 48
0.48 Jason_Heyward_CHN RF 134
0.42 Willson_Contreras_CHN C 146
0.50 Addison_Russell_CHN SS 177
0.15 Albert_Almora_CHN CF 104
-0.13 Jon_Lester_CHN P 23
TOTAL WAA=4.16 PA=1194 WinPct=0.567

Cubs still fielding a fairly good lineup for a team with an average W-L record. Here is SDN yesterday.

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA 05282017
-0.48 Allen_Cordoba_SDN LF 94
-0.78 Yangervis_Solarte_SDN 2B 206
0.61 Wil_Myers_SDN 1B 218
0.46 Ryan_Schimpf_SDN 3B 177
-0.65 Hunter_Renfroe_SDN RF 201
-0.04 Franchy_Cordero_SDN CF 6
0.44 Chase_d’Arnaud_TOT SS 21
-0.59 Luis_Torrens_SDN C 37
-0.29 Jhoulys_Chacin_SDN P 21
TOTAL WAA=-1.32 PA=981 WinPct=0.474

Not bad considering what the BAT in their team status indicates.  As the season progresses teams will make deals to improve which will cause the numbers in the team status lines to be worse than the actual team roster.  Notice Plate Appearances (PA) totals for SDN are around 200 less than CHN already.  SDN is working on improving and hopefully they show no improvement with the Cubs today.  Let’s look at relief staff season totals.

TeamID WAA IP WinPct
CHN 3.42 177.8 0.587
SDN -1.70 184.1 0.458

CHN relief staff has flat lined (i.e. play average) but they’re still ranked #7 out of 30 MLB teams. SDN is below average as should be expected.  Not much more to say about this series.