Cubs Rockies Matchup

Cubs start a series with the Rockies today.  We did the Cubs status yesterday.  Here’s what the Ouija Board has to say about today (10am snapshot).

DATE 06_08 8:05_PM Jun_8_10:17 COL CHN
LINEAWAY COL [ 0.351 ] < 0.377 >
STARTAWAY -0.92(0.442) Tyler_Chatwood_COL
LINEHOME CHN [ 0.667 ] < 0.643 >
STARTHOME 0.55(0.534) Jon_Lester_CHN

Jon Lester is still above average but Tyler Chatwood is not.   At 0.643 the Ouija Board is giving the Cubs a big premium over home field advantage today.  Let’s look at the Rockies’ team status.

BAT PITCH Rs Ra W L UR LR TeamID
48.5 -5.5 311 259 37 23 10.5 -1.4 COL

At 37-23 the Rockies are a top tier MLB team at +14.  They have very good hitting and very good fielding with a UR=+10.5.  Their PITCH is slightly underwater but at this point in the season could be considered virtually average.   Since the game starts tonight lineups won’t be available until later so let’s look at yesterday’s lineups for the two teams.

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA 06072017
3.19 Charlie_Blackmon_COL CF 268
-0.61 DJ_LeMahieu_COL 2B 260
2.29 Nolan_Arenado_COL 3B 258
-0.04 Carlos_Gonzalez_COL RF 228
3.63 Mark_Reynolds_COL 1B 228
0.19 Ian_Desmond_COL LF 138
0.69 Trevor_Story_COL SS 179
0.04 Ryan_Hanigan_COL C 38
-0.17 Kyle_Freeland_COL P 20
TOTAL WAA=9.22 PA=1617 WinPct=0.609

As expected from their BAT number, COL has an exceptional lineup. Lester will have his hands full with these guys today.

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA 06072017
0.21 Ian_Happ_CHN CF 78
0.69 Kris_Bryant_CHN 3B 247
0.80 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B 256
-0.71 Ben_Zobrist_CHN 2B 189
0.38 Jason_Heyward_CHN RF 174
0.17 Willson_Contreras_CHN C 174
1.18 Javier_Baez_CHN SS 167
-0.34 John_Lackey_CHN P 22
-0.38 Kyle_Schwarber_CHN LF 218
TOTAL WAA=1.99 PA=1525 WinPct=0.525

The Cubs’ lineup is above water again   Since COL has such a poor starter going today they’ll probably/hopefully dip into relief early.  Let’s look at relief staffs.

TeamID WAA IP WinPct
COL 0.59 190.5 0.514
CHN 5.63 203 0.625

The Rockies have a little above average relief that is better than MIA which the Cubs hit but not enough yesterday.  So we have a below average starting pitcher facing a slightly above mediocre lineup vs.  slightly above average starter in Lester facing a top tier MLB lineup.  The Cubs are favored almost 2-1 (0.667) today far above standard home field advantage of 0.540.   The Rockies are a good team this year so we’ll see.  MLB leaders tomorrow.

Edit: MIA had better relief than COL.  The Cardinals were the team with bad relief  this home stand.