Update 6/10/2017: Don’t usually show two lines per series unless there is something interesting.
Cubs have one more game with these Rockies tomorrow. The game is going on now and the Cubs are losing again 3-0 in the 6th. I expected the betting market to pull back on the Cubs and they did. Here is today’s final (2pm CST snapshot).
DATE 06_10 2:20_PM Jun_10_14:17 COL CHN
LINEAWAY COL [ 0.467 ] < 0.435 >
STARTAWAY 0.69(0.651) Jeff_Hoffman_COL
LINEHOME CHN [ 0.554 ] < 0.583 >
STARTHOME 0.27(0.551) Eddie_Butler_CHN
For some reason Maddon skipped Hendricks in the rotation and he doesn’t pitch until 6/14 in NYN. We showed Butler’s career numbers and they aren’t good. Both starters are slightly above average (just looking at WAA not WinPct) this season and according to this value system starting pitching should be a wash today at best, COL slightly better at worst. The above lineup value is about the same so COL has a big hitting advantage yet by making the Cubs 0.583 chance of winning they are still getting a premium. At best these teams should be considered equal so the Cubs line should have never went above 0.540 for any of these games. We saw this phenomenon when the Cubs played COL in Colorado, when the Cubs played the Yankees, when the Cubs played Milwaukee, a first place team at the time, and even when the Cubs played the Cardinals this last series which the Cubs swept.
It’s not the outcome that matters. According to this data model the Cubs have been over valued in the betting market. According to our research, the betting market is a very accurate predictor of a game’s winning probability over the long term but can be inaccurate in the short term. The question here is why which I don’t know. If bettors are using WAR and other Sabermetrics to make these decisions that can, as we have shown many times here, be extremely inaccurate. It could be irrational exuberance by Cubs fans but how can we detect this? How can we predict when this is happening with teams we don’t follow closely and all we have are these numbers?
If you know the probability of something is 1/2 or 0.500 and someone is willing to pay you 2-1 thinking the probability is greater than 2/(2+1)=0.667 then you will win money guaranteed in the long term. This is how blackjack card counters win. The hard part is knowing when the Ouija Board is wrong and whatever theory anyone comes up with can be tested on more than 6 years worth of data or almost 15,000 games. If that theory can come out ahead by a significant margin then money can be made at this. This is why we walk through this with the Cubs because 1) I follow the Cubs and 2) none of my crackpot theories can pass the above test.
The line yesterday with Montgomery on the mound, where the Cubs had a starter advantage, was almost the same as today where that’s a wash. This intrigued me which is why I had to update this matchup post. MLB leaders tomorrow for sure this time.