Cubs Mets Matchup

Cubs start a road series in NYN tonight so let’s take a look at the team that broke Ron Santo’s, and every Cubs fan’s, heart in 1969.

BAT PITCH Rs Ra W L UR LR TeamID
13.5 -29.2 299 317 28 33 0.1 -2.4 NYN

PITCH is lousy, BAT above average and they have a real team WAA=-5.  The Mets are struggling worse than the Cubs.  Last two years the Mets had a pitching team and terrible bat.  Baseball is funny like that.  Let’s see what the Ouija Board thinks so far (10am snapshot).

DATE 06_12 7:10_PM Jun_12_10:17 CHN NYN
LINEAWAY CHN [ 0.467 ] < 0.465 >
STARTAWAY -1.45(0.407) John_Lackey_CHN
LINEHOME NYN [ 0.558 ] < 0.556 >
STARTHOME -0.80(0.450) Jacob_deGrom_NYN

The Cubs are almost exactly away field disadvantage which is 0.460 which means the betting market views these two teams equal with these starters on the mound and thus throwing home field advantage to the Mets.  The Mets are at 0.560 because the house takes a cut so the lines always add to greater than 1.  Today the Mets bettors will pay the house.  We only care about the Cubs line unless you want to bet against the Cubs, then you have to bet the Mets line.

Both pitchers below average this season.  Lackey is having a worse year than deGrom.  Starting pitchers are an extremely important aspect to the game which is why they are listed prominently.  Although deGrom is having an off year  he’s had a very good career so far.

Year WAA Name_TeamID Pos Rank
2014 3.3 Jacob_deGrom_NYN PITCH +072+
2015 6.1 Jacob_deGrom_NYN PITCH +014+
2016 3.9 Jacob_deGrom_NYN PITCH +067+
2017 -0.8 Jacob_deGrom_NYN PITCH XXXXX
Total 12.5

If he keeps pitching like his last three years we’ll see deGrom in HOF one day.  Hopefully he doesn’t break out of his funk  today.  Let’s look at lineups yesterday since I don’t want to wait until tonight to post this.

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA 06112017
0.10 Jon_Jay_CHN CF 116
0.46 Kris_Bryant_CHN 3B 265
0.76 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B 274
-1.07 Ben_Zobrist_CHN LF 207
0.25 Jason_Heyward_CHN RF 192
0.90 Javier_Baez_CHN 2B 178
-0.21 Miguel_Montero_CHN C 86
-0.19 Addison_Russell_CHN SS 205
-0.44 Jake_Arrieta_CHN P 27
TOTAL WAA=0.57 PA=1550 WinPct=0.507

The Cubs lineup is completely average which isn’t bad but completely average (81-81) does not make the playoffs. These guys are talented so it should be a matter of when they break out not if. In a couple of days it will be time to do Cubs status again. Here are the Mets.

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA 06112017
2.65 Michael_Conforto_NYN LF 229
0.08 Juan_Lagares_NYN CF 86
0.27 Wilmer_Flores_NYN 1B 142
1.89 Jay_Bruce_NYN RF 251
1.01 Neil_Walker_NYN 2B 240
-0.02 Asdrubal_Cabrera_NYN SS 188
-0.32 Rene_Rivera_NYN C 111
-0.92 Jose_Reyes_NYN 3B 225
0.00 NO_ENTRY_NYN P 0
TOTAL WAA=4.64 PA=1472 WinPct=0.561

We saw in team status Mets had an above average BAT so their lineup reflects that.  Conforto is ranked #29 and Bruce ranked #60.  When the Mets acquired Jay Bruce last season to make a run for the playoffs he tanked for them.  It looks like he bounced back this year.  If it wasn’t for the Mets’ horrible pitching they could be contenders.  Let’s look at relief.

TeamID WAA IP WinPct
CHN 5.38 227.7 0.606
NYN -3.78 222.6 0.424

Ouch.  NYN has the third worst relief in MLB, the Cubs have the fourth best.  With two below average pitchers going, if it becomes a reliever’s match, the Cubs should win this easily.

Although it appeared that the Cubs were over valued in their last home stand — especially against the Rockies, today the probabilities predicted by the Ouija Board seem accurate or maybe the Cubs might be a tad under valued considering the disparity in relief staffs.  I don’t know.  Nobody knows.