Cubs start a road series in NYN tonight so let’s take a look at the team that broke Ron Santo’s, and every Cubs fan’s, heart in 1969.
| BAT | PITCH | Rs | Ra | W | L | UR | LR | TeamID | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13.5 | -29.2 | 299 | 317 | 28 | 33 | 0.1 | -2.4 | NYN |
PITCH is lousy, BAT above average and they have a real team WAA=-5. The Mets are struggling worse than the Cubs. Last two years the Mets had a pitching team and terrible bat. Baseball is funny like that. Let’s see what the Ouija Board thinks so far (10am snapshot).
DATE 06_12 7:10_PM Jun_12_10:17 CHN NYN
LINEAWAY CHN [ 0.467 ] < 0.465 >
STARTAWAY -1.45(0.407) John_Lackey_CHN
LINEHOME NYN [ 0.558 ] < 0.556 >
STARTHOME -0.80(0.450) Jacob_deGrom_NYN
The Cubs are almost exactly away field disadvantage which is 0.460 which means the betting market views these two teams equal with these starters on the mound and thus throwing home field advantage to the Mets. The Mets are at 0.560 because the house takes a cut so the lines always add to greater than 1. Today the Mets bettors will pay the house. We only care about the Cubs line unless you want to bet against the Cubs, then you have to bet the Mets line.
Both pitchers below average this season. Lackey is having a worse year than deGrom. Starting pitchers are an extremely important aspect to the game which is why they are listed prominently. Although deGrom is having an off year he’s had a very good career so far.
| Year | WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | Rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 3.3 | Jacob_deGrom_NYN | PITCH | +072+ | |
| 2015 | 6.1 | Jacob_deGrom_NYN | PITCH | +014+ | |
| 2016 | 3.9 | Jacob_deGrom_NYN | PITCH | +067+ | |
| 2017 | -0.8 | Jacob_deGrom_NYN | PITCH | XXXXX | |
| Total | 12.5 |
If he keeps pitching like his last three years we’ll see deGrom in HOF one day. Hopefully he doesn’t break out of his funk today. Let’s look at lineups yesterday since I don’t want to wait until tonight to post this.
| WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | PA | 06112017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.10 | Jon_Jay_CHN | CF | 116 | |
| 0.46 | Kris_Bryant_CHN | 3B | 265 | |
| 0.76 | Anthony_Rizzo_CHN | 1B | 274 | |
| -1.07 | Ben_Zobrist_CHN | LF | 207 | |
| 0.25 | Jason_Heyward_CHN | RF | 192 | |
| 0.90 | Javier_Baez_CHN | 2B | 178 | |
| -0.21 | Miguel_Montero_CHN | C | 86 | |
| -0.19 | Addison_Russell_CHN | SS | 205 | |
| -0.44 | Jake_Arrieta_CHN | P | 27 | |
| TOTAL | WAA=0.57 | PA=1550 | WinPct=0.507 |
The Cubs lineup is completely average which isn’t bad but completely average (81-81) does not make the playoffs. These guys are talented so it should be a matter of when they break out not if. In a couple of days it will be time to do Cubs status again. Here are the Mets.
| WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | PA | 06112017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.65 | Michael_Conforto_NYN | LF | 229 | |
| 0.08 | Juan_Lagares_NYN | CF | 86 | |
| 0.27 | Wilmer_Flores_NYN | 1B | 142 | |
| 1.89 | Jay_Bruce_NYN | RF | 251 | |
| 1.01 | Neil_Walker_NYN | 2B | 240 | |
| -0.02 | Asdrubal_Cabrera_NYN | SS | 188 | |
| -0.32 | Rene_Rivera_NYN | C | 111 | |
| -0.92 | Jose_Reyes_NYN | 3B | 225 | |
| 0.00 | NO_ENTRY_NYN | P | 0 | |
| TOTAL | WAA=4.64 | PA=1472 | WinPct=0.561 |
We saw in team status Mets had an above average BAT so their lineup reflects that. Conforto is ranked #29 and Bruce ranked #60. When the Mets acquired Jay Bruce last season to make a run for the playoffs he tanked for them. It looks like he bounced back this year. If it wasn’t for the Mets’ horrible pitching they could be contenders. Let’s look at relief.
| TeamID | WAA | IP | WinPct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHN | 5.38 | 227.7 | 0.606 | |
| NYN | -3.78 | 222.6 | 0.424 |
Ouch. NYN has the third worst relief in MLB, the Cubs have the fourth best. With two below average pitchers going, if it becomes a reliever’s match, the Cubs should win this easily.
Although it appeared that the Cubs were over valued in their last home stand — especially against the Rockies, today the probabilities predicted by the Ouija Board seem accurate or maybe the Cubs might be a tad under valued considering the disparity in relief staffs. I don’t know. Nobody knows.