State of the Cubs 6/21/2017

Another week and another state of the Cubs post.  Here are team status lines last week and today’s snapshot.

BAT PITCH Rs Ra W L UR LR TeamID
-0.2 8.7 300 292 32 32 -3.5 3.0 CHN 6/14/2017
-3.7 21.1 330 313 36 34 -3.7 3.4 CHN  6/21/2017

They went 4-2 last week adding two wins.  BAT a little down but not much and PITCH way up.  They gained two games on pitching.  Unearned runs above average stagnate which isn’t bad.  It ends three weeks of gains so fielding is OK.  OK is better than bad and at 36-34 the Cubs are a little better than OK now.  The +2 wins gets divvied up amongst players so let’s see where they’re at.

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+036+ 2.54 Mike_Montgomery_CHN PITCH
+092+ 1.72 Carl_Edwards_CHN PITCH
+104+ 1.64 Wade_Davis_CHN PITCH
+110+ 1.60 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B
+176+ 1.11 Jon_Lester_CHN PITCH
+196+ 1.01 Koji_Uehara_CHN PITCH
XXXXX 0.82 Brian_Duensing_CHN PITCH
XXXXX 0.65 Javier_Baez_CHN 2B-SS
XXXXX 0.53 Ian_Happ_CHN CF-2B
XXXXX 0.44 Pedro_Strop_CHN PITCH
XXXXX 0.40 Kyle_Hendricks_CHN PITCH
XXXXX 0.32 Willson_Contreras_CHN CR
XXXXX 0.27 Addison_Russell_CHN SS
XXXXX 0.25 Kris_Bryant_CHN 3B
XXXXX 0.13 Jason_Heyward_CHN RF-CF
XXXXX 0.13 Jon_Jay_CHN LF-CF-RF

Cubs have 6 guys in the top 200 now and lots hovering around OK which isn’t bad and reflects their 36-34 record.  When this group rises the Cubs will win a lot of games which is all that matters when we get to the end of the season.  Also this guy is still doing OK.

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
XXXXX -0.34 Kyle_Schwarber_CHN LF

That’s still very average and he’s been hovering around that all season.  Maddon seems to be managing him well by sitting him.  Once Schwarber gets kick started along with Bryant this team will rise.  Rizzo is already rising fast and almost in the top 100 now.  Mike Montgomery is pitching just as well as a starter as he pitched as a reliever.

Don’t feel like blast from the past today.  Working on a minor league analysis of Cubs AA and AAA as well as an overall minors analysis.  The Cubs’ minor league teams are struggling a bit now and we’ll see why.  I don’t know  either until I crunch the data.

We did a lot of minor league analysis back in 2013. This time we’ll combine International with PCL to  into a single class encompassing AAA players from all 30 teams. We combine AL and NL here because they are both MLB class players.   A deeper dataset improves the accuracy of this model.  This will happen in a couple of days because all those old number crunching and databasing scripts had to be rewritten.  We did a lot of minor league analysis back then, even the Japanese leagues, and quit after the 2014 season.  Until then….