The Cubs are playing the Marlins again but in Miami this time. We analyzed this matchup a little over two weeks ago. Here’s what the Ouija Board spit out today (noon snapshot).
DATE 06_22 7:10_PM Jun_22_12:17 CHN MIA
LINEAWAY CHN [ 0.600 ] < 0.565 >
STARTAWAY -0.48(0.472) Jake_Arrieta_CHN
LINEHOME MIA [ 0.417 ] < 0.455 >
STARTHOME -0.04(0.490) Jeff_Locke_MIA
Jeff Locke hasn’t had a good career:
| Year | WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | Rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | -1.0 | Jeff_Locke_PIT | PITCH | XXXXX | |
| 2012 | -1.2 | Jeff_Locke_PIT | PITCH | -252- | |
| 2013 | 1.2 | Jeff_Locke_PIT | PITCH | +261+ | |
| 2014 | -0.5 | Jeff_Locke_PIT | PITCH | XXXXX | |
| 2015 | -2.6 | Jeff_Locke_PIT | PITCH | -072- | |
| 2016 | -3.8 | Jeff_Locke_PIT | PITCH | -028- | |
| 2017 | -0.0 | Jeff_Locke_MIA | PITCH | XXXXX | |
| Total | -7.5 |
The Ouija Board is giving starting pitching to the Cubs today. As away field disadvantage they should have a 0.460 probability of winning and instead they’re getting 0.565. Let’s look at lineups for yesterday since we won’t get current ones until much later.
| WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | PA | 06212017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.60 | Anthony_Rizzo_CHN | 1B | 314 | |
| 0.25 | Kris_Bryant_CHN | RF | 296 | |
| -0.34 | Kyle_Schwarber_CHN | LF | 257 | |
| 0.27 | Addison_Russell_CHN | SS | 232 | |
| 0.53 | Ian_Happ_CHN | 2B | 126 | |
| -0.40 | Tommy_La_Stella_CHN | 3B | 41 | |
| 0.32 | Willson_Contreras_CHN | C | 214 | |
| -0.32 | Eddie_Butler_CHN | P | 13 | |
| -0.08 | Albert_Almora_CHN | CF | 146 | |
| TOTAL | WAA=1.83 | PA=1639 | WinPct=0.521 |
Cubs still hovering in the 0.520/0.530 range which is a little above average. Rizzo is their lone standout hitter.
| WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | PA | 06212017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1.47 | Dee_Gordon_MIA | 2B | 300 | |
| 2.02 | Giancarlo_Stanton_MIA | RF | 291 | |
| 0.69 | Christian_Yelich_MIA | CF | 298 | |
| 2.37 | Marcell_Ozuna_MIA | LF | 298 | |
| 2.18 | Justin_Bour_MIA | 1B | 231 | |
| -0.48 | Derek_Dietrich_MIA | 3B | 200 | |
| -0.67 | A.J._Ellis_MIA | C | 59 | |
| -0.15 | JT_Riddle_MIA | SS | 158 | |
| -0.55 | Dan_Straily_MIA | P | 30 | |
| TOTAL | WAA=3.95 | PA=1865 | WinPct=0.541 |
The Marlins have three positive standouts who may be difficult to get out and one negative who happens to be leading off for some reason. At 0.541 the Marlins have an edge in hitting as of all collected stats this season. Justin Bour is an ex-Cubbie who played for the Tennessee Smokies in AA Southern League. We mentioned him two weeks ago. This data model has him currently ranked #63 in MLB both pitchers and batters which is very very good and a career year for him. Let’s see the Marlin’s team status.
| BAT | PITCH | Rs | Ra | W | L | UR | LR | TeamID | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.7 | -5.0 | 329 | 340 | 31 | 38 | -4.7 | -0.6 | MIA |
The Marlins are 7 games under with slightly below average PITCH and average BAT. With those three highly ranked hitters they must have many very below average players dragging this team under. This is a problem the Cubs don’t have. Since most Cubs are hovering around average they don’t have many players in the bottom 200.
Here are relief squads.
| TeamID | WAA | IP | WinPct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHN | 5.0 (est) | 245 (est) | 0.612 | |
| MIA | 1.55 | 237.3 | 0.529 |
Miami has above average relief which they may need today unless the Cubs hitters can’t hit again. This is the point in the season when pitchers move from relief to starter and vice versa. Mike Montgomery is no longer a reliever so much of his value must come off the relief squad’s books. Soon we’ll have to parse rosters to find current day value for various sets of players.
Minor league coming as well as our All Star Picks for starting lineup. Until then….