Cubs start a new series with the top of the league Washington Nationals (WAS). This won’t be so easy as their last bunch of series. Let’s take a look at what the betting market thinks (noon snapshot).
DATE 06_26 7:05_PM Jun_26_12:17 CHN WAS
LINEAWAY CHN [ 0.426 ] < 0.413 >
STARTAWAY 0.17(0.520) Eddie_Butler_CHN
LINEHOME WAS [ 0.592 ] < 0.603 >
STARTHOME 3.09(0.647) Gio_Gonzalez_WAS
Butler is a close average pitcher and Gonzalez is top of the league right now. The Cubs are slightly below the standard away field disadvantage of 0.460 but they have been dropping from a start of 0.426 to 0.413. We posted Butler’s career and how he tore up AAA for the Iowa Cubs at the beginning of this season, let’s look at Gonzalez’ career.
| Year | WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | Rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | -2.6 | Gio_Gonzalez_OAK | PITCH | -082- | |
| 2009 | -3.3 | Gio_Gonzalez_OAK | PITCH | -037- | |
| 2010 | 4.1 | Gio_Gonzalez_OAK | PITCH | +057+ | |
| 2011 | 3.9 | Gio_Gonzalez_OAK | PITCH | +060+ | |
| 2012 | 4.9 | Gio_Gonzalez_WAS | PITCH | +027+ | |
| 2013 | 2.4 | Gio_Gonzalez_WAS | PITCH | +122+ | |
| 2014 | 0.4 | Gio_Gonzalez_WAS | PITCH | XXXXX | |
| 2015 | 0.8 | Gio_Gonzalez_WAS | PITCH | XXXXX | |
| 2016 | -1.8 | Gio_Gonzalez_WAS | PITCH | -162- | |
| 2017 | 3.1 | Gio_Gonzalez_WAS | PITCH | +021+ | |
| Total | 11.9 |
He has had a solid productive career as a pitcher. Stumbled a bit last season but right now he’s ranked #21 which is very good. He’ll be tough to hit today. Here is WAS team status.
| BAT | PITCH | Rs | Ra | W | L | UR | LR | TeamID | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 76.8 | 17.0 | 422 | 330 | 45 | 29 | 0.9 | -3.7 | WAS |
They’re +15 now mostly on their BAT. PITCH is above water but they have one of their best starters this year pitching and that’s all that matters. This is a very good team. Now let’s take a look at lineups yesterday because I don’t want to wait until game time for the current ones.
| WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | PA | 06252017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.43 | Anthony_Rizzo_CHN | 1B | 328 | |
| 0.44 | Kris_Bryant_CHN | RF | 313 | |
| 0.97 | Ian_Happ_CHN | CF | 142 | |
| 0.61 | Addison_Russell_CHN | SS | 248 | |
| -0.57 | Miguel_Montero_CHN | C | 106 | |
| -0.50 | Tommy_La_Stella_CHN | 3B | 45 | |
| 0.73 | Javier_Baez_CHN | 2B | 218 | |
| -0.25 | Mike_Montgomery_CHN | P | 10 | |
| -0.02 | Jon_Jay_CHN | LF | 152 | |
| TOTAL | WAA=2.83 | PA=1562 | WinPct=0.535 |
Cubs’ lineup still hovering in the 0.520 – 0.540 territory which is why they’re still around a 0.500 team. Rizzo is their only standout hitter which is why Maddon leads him off. The lead off hitter is guaranteed the most plate appearances per game.
| WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | PA | 06252017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.36 | Trea_Turner_WAS | SS | 292 | |
| 0.97 | Brian_Goodwin_WAS | LF | 98 | |
| 4.49 | Bryce_Harper_WAS | RF | 301 | |
| 3.44 | Daniel_Murphy_WAS | 2B | 301 | |
| 1.93 | Anthony_Rendon_WAS | 3B | 286 | |
| 1.85 | Adam_Lind_WAS | 1B | 113 | |
| 1.01 | Michael_Taylor_WAS | CF | 216 | |
| -0.76 | Jose_Lobaton_WAS | C | 74 | |
| -0.73 | Tanner_Roark_WAS | P | 30 | |
| TOTAL | WAA=13.57 | PA=1711 | WinPct=0.652 |
This is the kind of WinPct lineup the Yankees had when they swept the Cubs at the beginning of May. It might be the best lineup in MLB right now. We’re not set up to make those sorts. A WAA=+13.57 lineup is a typical end of season lineup for a playoff contender with good hitting.
And finally, here are relief.
| TeamID | WAA | IP | WinPct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHN | 5.80 est | 255 est | 0.600 | |
| WAS | -2.92 | 216.6 | 0.439 |
I didn’t expect WAS to have such poor relief. That may be their Achilles heel. If the Cubs can knock Gonzalez out early they may have a chance. Butler may not last more than a couple of innings either We’ll see.
Weekly Cubs status comes around again in two days. Until then….