Cubs Reds Matchup

Cubs start a new series with the Reds today so let’s look at this matchup again.  Here’s what the Ouija Board says (noon snapshot).

DATE 06_30 7:10_PM Jun_30_12:17 CHN CIN
LINEAWAY CHN [ 0.559 ] < 0.512 >
STARTAWAY 2.48(0.693) Mike_Montgomery_CHN
LINEHOME CIN [ 0.461 ] < 0.512 >
STARTHOME 0.73(0.536) Scott_Feldman_CIN

It’s even steven.  No home field or away field advantage/disadvantage for anyone.  Flip a coin.  They don’t know.  The Cubs started out at 0.559 and have been falling. They have their best pitcher and best player on the mound today, Mike Montgomery. Feldman, another former Cub, is above average this year. We know who Montgomery is, who is Scott Feldman?

Year WAA Name_TeamID Pos Rank
2005 0.7 Scott_Feldman_TEX PITCH XXXXX
2006 0.6 Scott_Feldman_TEX PITCH XXXXX
2007 -1.1 Scott_Feldman_TEX PITCH XXXXX
2008 -3.4 Scott_Feldman_TEX PITCH -040-
2009 1.2 Scott_Feldman_TEX PITCH XXXXX
2010 -4.7 Scott_Feldman_TEX PITCH -017-
2011 0.0 Scott_Feldman_TEX PITCH XXXXX
2012 -3.1 Scott_Feldman_TEX PITCH -050-
2013 0.9 Scott_Feldman_CHN PITCH XXXXX
2013 -0.8 Scott_Feldman_BAL PITCH XXXXX
2014 0.1 Scott_Feldman_HOU PITCH XXXXX
2015 0.2 Scott_Feldman_HOU PITCH XXXXX
2016 1.7 Scott_Feldman_HOU PITCH XXXXX
2016 -1.5 Scott_Feldman_TOR PITCH XXXXX
2017 0.7 Scott_Feldman_CIN PITCH XXXXX
Total -8.5

Scott has had a tumultuous but overall below average career.  Let’s see the Reds’ team status.

BAT PITCH Rs Ra W L UR LR TeamID
15.0 -64.8 373 419 32 44 5.8 -2.1 CIN

Positive BAT, terrible PITCH, good fielding with a UR=+5.8 and all that boils down to them being 12 games under water — which is all that matters.  With a positive BAT we should expect a decent lineup for CIN.  Let’s look at lineups as of yesterday.

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA 06292017
-0.21 Jon_Jay_CHN LF 160
0.84 Ian_Happ_CHN RF 156
1.47 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B 342
0.46 Willson_Contreras_CHN C 235
0.55 Addison_Russell_CHN SS 252
-0.44 Jeimer_Candelario_CHN 3B 30
-0.38 Albert_Almora_CHN CF 167
0.67 Javier_Baez_CHN 2B 230
-0.40 Jon_Lester_CHN P 37
TOTAL WAA=2.56 PA=1609 WinPct=0.531

Cubs lineup still the same.

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA 06192017
-1.07 Billy_Hamilton_CIN CF 324
2.88 Scooter_Gennett_CIN 2B 187
3.23 Joey_Votto_CIN 1B 333
2.10 Adam_Duvall_CIN LF 307
1.62 Eugenio_Suarez_CIN 3B 301
0.02 Devin_Mesoraco_CIN C 121
-1.83 Jose_Peraza_CIN SS 292
-0.10 Arismendy_Alcantara_CIN RF 76
-0.02 Homer_Bailey_CIN P 1
TOTAL WAA=6.83 PA=1942 WinPct=0.567

As expected they have a very good lineup with several standout hitters and several not so good hitters.  A team that is 12 games below 0.500 cannot be filled with superstars.  The Reds have many players in the bottom 200 dragging those 4 players above into the cellar.  We don’t like to dwell much on that and CIN may have replaced those bad players already if they know who they are.

And finally, let’s look at relief.

TeamID WAA IP WinPct
CHN 6.01 est
 269.3 est 0.609
CIN 1.28 287.7 0.520

Cubs relief still chugging along.  They are the unsung heroes keeping this team afloat.  CIN has decent relief so if Feldman gets knocked out the guys replacing him are just as good or better.

The Cubs have been getting higher premiums with similar and worse matchups than they are getting today.  Montgomery has been a top notch pitcher this season.  Maybe the market is jittery about all the new players being brought up and Bryant being injured.  Interesting.

Tomorrow All Star picks part 3 listing our picks for top starting and relief pitchers.  I don’t think fans vote on this and it appears Joe Maddon is the NL manager this year.  Why?  Because the Chicago Cubs won a World Series.