Cubs start a new series with the Reds today so let’s look at this matchup again. Here’s what the Ouija Board says (noon snapshot).
DATE 06_30 7:10_PM Jun_30_12:17 CHN CIN
LINEAWAY CHN [ 0.559 ] < 0.512 >
STARTAWAY 2.48(0.693) Mike_Montgomery_CHN
LINEHOME CIN [ 0.461 ] < 0.512 >
STARTHOME 0.73(0.536) Scott_Feldman_CIN
It’s even steven. No home field or away field advantage/disadvantage for anyone. Flip a coin. They don’t know. The Cubs started out at 0.559 and have been falling. They have their best pitcher and best player on the mound today, Mike Montgomery. Feldman, another former Cub, is above average this year. We know who Montgomery is, who is Scott Feldman?
| Year | WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | Rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | 0.7 | Scott_Feldman_TEX | PITCH | XXXXX | |
| 2006 | 0.6 | Scott_Feldman_TEX | PITCH | XXXXX | |
| 2007 | -1.1 | Scott_Feldman_TEX | PITCH | XXXXX | |
| 2008 | -3.4 | Scott_Feldman_TEX | PITCH | -040- | |
| 2009 | 1.2 | Scott_Feldman_TEX | PITCH | XXXXX | |
| 2010 | -4.7 | Scott_Feldman_TEX | PITCH | -017- | |
| 2011 | 0.0 | Scott_Feldman_TEX | PITCH | XXXXX | |
| 2012 | -3.1 | Scott_Feldman_TEX | PITCH | -050- | |
| 2013 | 0.9 | Scott_Feldman_CHN | PITCH | XXXXX | |
| 2013 | -0.8 | Scott_Feldman_BAL | PITCH | XXXXX | |
| 2014 | 0.1 | Scott_Feldman_HOU | PITCH | XXXXX | |
| 2015 | 0.2 | Scott_Feldman_HOU | PITCH | XXXXX | |
| 2016 | 1.7 | Scott_Feldman_HOU | PITCH | XXXXX | |
| 2016 | -1.5 | Scott_Feldman_TOR | PITCH | XXXXX | |
| 2017 | 0.7 | Scott_Feldman_CIN | PITCH | XXXXX | |
| Total | -8.5 |
Scott has had a tumultuous but overall below average career. Let’s see the Reds’ team status.
| BAT | PITCH | Rs | Ra | W | L | UR | LR | TeamID | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15.0 | -64.8 | 373 | 419 | 32 | 44 | 5.8 | -2.1 | CIN |
Positive BAT, terrible PITCH, good fielding with a UR=+5.8 and all that boils down to them being 12 games under water — which is all that matters. With a positive BAT we should expect a decent lineup for CIN. Let’s look at lineups as of yesterday.
| WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | PA | 06292017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.21 | Jon_Jay_CHN | LF | 160 | |
| 0.84 | Ian_Happ_CHN | RF | 156 | |
| 1.47 | Anthony_Rizzo_CHN | 1B | 342 | |
| 0.46 | Willson_Contreras_CHN | C | 235 | |
| 0.55 | Addison_Russell_CHN | SS | 252 | |
| -0.44 | Jeimer_Candelario_CHN | 3B | 30 | |
| -0.38 | Albert_Almora_CHN | CF | 167 | |
| 0.67 | Javier_Baez_CHN | 2B | 230 | |
| -0.40 | Jon_Lester_CHN | P | 37 | |
| TOTAL | WAA=2.56 | PA=1609 | WinPct=0.531 |
Cubs lineup still the same.
| WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | PA | 06192017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1.07 | Billy_Hamilton_CIN | CF | 324 | |
| 2.88 | Scooter_Gennett_CIN | 2B | 187 | |
| 3.23 | Joey_Votto_CIN | 1B | 333 | |
| 2.10 | Adam_Duvall_CIN | LF | 307 | |
| 1.62 | Eugenio_Suarez_CIN | 3B | 301 | |
| 0.02 | Devin_Mesoraco_CIN | C | 121 | |
| -1.83 | Jose_Peraza_CIN | SS | 292 | |
| -0.10 | Arismendy_Alcantara_CIN | RF | 76 | |
| -0.02 | Homer_Bailey_CIN | P | 1 | |
| TOTAL | WAA=6.83 | PA=1942 | WinPct=0.567 |
As expected they have a very good lineup with several standout hitters and several not so good hitters. A team that is 12 games below 0.500 cannot be filled with superstars. The Reds have many players in the bottom 200 dragging those 4 players above into the cellar. We don’t like to dwell much on that and CIN may have replaced those bad players already if they know who they are.
And finally, let’s look at relief.
| TeamID | WAA | IP | WinPct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHN | 6.01 est |
269.3 est | 0.609 | |
| CIN | 1.28 | 287.7 | 0.520 |
Cubs relief still chugging along. They are the unsung heroes keeping this team afloat. CIN has decent relief so if Feldman gets knocked out the guys replacing him are just as good or better.
The Cubs have been getting higher premiums with similar and worse matchups than they are getting today. Montgomery has been a top notch pitcher this season. Maybe the market is jittery about all the new players being brought up and Bryant being injured. Interesting.
Tomorrow All Star picks part 3 listing our picks for top starting and relief pitchers. I don’t think fans vote on this and it appears Joe Maddon is the NL manager this year. Why? Because the Chicago Cubs won a World Series.