State of the Cubs 7/20/2017

Another week of baseball has passed and for the Cubs happy days are here again so we’ll do a weekly update.  Cue the trumpets.  Here are the status lines from last week and today.

BAT PITCH Rs Ra W L UR LR TeamID
-15.4 22.9 399 399 43 45 -9.3 1.9 CHN 7/12/2017
3.0 30.7 443 416 49 45 -8.0 1.3 CHN 7/20/2017

BAT up over +18, PITCH up +8 and that translates into what really counts, their W-L is up +6.  <anti jinx on> The Cubs have proven talent and they are finally showing it again this season. </anti jinx off>

Let’s look at their top players.

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+110+ 1.99 Carl_Edwards_CHN PITCH
+120+ 1.87 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B
+139+ 1.64 Brian_Duensing_CHN PITCH
+151+ 1.55 Wade_Davis_CHN PITCH
+185+ 1.26 Pedro_Strop_CHN PITCH
XXXXX 1.11 Willson_Contreras_CHN CR
XXXXX 1.07 Ian_Happ_CHN CF-2B-LF
XXXXX 0.97 Mike_Montgomery_CHN PITCH
XXXXX 0.94 Kris_Bryant_CHN 3B
XXXXX 0.94 Javier_Baez_CHN 2B-SS
XXXXX 0.92 Koji_Uehara_CHN PITCH
XXXXX 0.73 Jon_Lester_CHN PITCH

Still no guys in the top 100 and most everyone in the top 200 are relievers.   Carl Edwards keeps putting zeros up on the scoreboard and that translates into him being the best player on the Cubs right now.  Right now are the key words because there are a lot of players here that can easily be top 25 this season.  Sometimes mid relief guys don’t get the glory like a closer.  Mathematically a zero in the 7th or 8th counts just as much as one in the 9th.   This table looks far better than the halftime edition of this report last week.

Blast from the Past 2015

Since the Cubs are showing life let’s look back at one of their successful teams on this day in 2015 for comparison.

BAT PITCH Rs Ra W L UR LR TeamID
-28.9 49.1 349 329 49 42 0.0 -0.2 CHN  7/20/2015

The Cubs were +7 in the W/L columns today in 2015.  Their BAT was bad and that team’s fortunes rested on pitching.  The Cubs finish that year with 97 wins and still had to settle for the second wild card spot because the NL Central was so good.

BAT PITCH Rs Ra W L UR LR TeamID
-5.8 101.1 371 271 58 34 8.0 -1.2 SLN  7/20/2015
-6.4 68.1 373 317 54 38 -7.0 1.2 PIT  7/20/2015

Everyone in the NL Central was packed with pitchers that year.  The Cubs were able to steamroll through these teams in the playoffs.  As shown in the halftime edition post, the Cubs went +27 after ASG in 2015 and +24 last year.  Most the guys responsible for that are still playing for the Cubs now.  Here are the top Cubs this day in 2015.

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+019+ 3.88 Jake_Arrieta_CHN PITCH
+049+ 2.69 Kris_Bryant_CHN 3B
+071+ 2.27 Jason_Hammel_CHN PITCH
+108+ 1.78 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B
+135+ 1.57 Hector_Rondon_CHN PITCH
+172+ 1.24 Jon_Lester_CHN PITCH
XXXXX 1.03 Justin_Grimm_CHN PITCH
XXXXX 0.99 Jason_Motte_CHN PITCH
XXXXX 0.92 Kyle_Hendricks_CHN PITCH
XXXXX 0.71 Kyle_Schwarber_CHN C

Eerily Rizzo is almost the same value then as he is now.  Arrieta moves into the top 25 and finishes the year with a Cy Young award for his trophy case but more importantly by helping the Cubs win in Pittsburgh to make it to the real playoffs,  the NLDS.  Schwarber starts his rise which is also key to the Cubs winning 97 games by the end of the season.

That is all for now.  Normally this will be done every Friday now but since today is a day off and tomorrow starts another series there was no point in waiting because the data would be the same.  Matchup analysis tomorrow with a little discovery about home field advantage.