Cubs start a series with the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight so let’s take a look at them and what the market thinks of this game. Here is a team status line for ARI.
ARI is +15 in the win/loss columns. They have great PITCH, very high BAT, and a terrible UR. They flub the ball a lot in important situations. If you run Pythagorean Expectation on this run differential they should be around +24. I am starting to see a pattern of bad UR leading to a bad run distribution leading more games lost than necessary. This can be proven or disproven so we’ll write a script and see if there’s a true correlation. Bottom line, Arizona still has a top tier MLB team. Let’s see what the Ouija Board thinks of today.
DATE 08_01 8:05_PM ARI CHN
LINEAWAY ARI [ 0.400 ] < 0.383 >
STARTAWAY -0.15(0.494) Patrick_Corbin_ARI
LINEHOME CHN [ 0.630 ] < 0.632 >
STARTHOME 1.41(0.549) Jon_Lester_CHN
That’s quite a premium Cubs bettors must pay to bet the Cubs. Lester has had a few good starts lately and Corbin is pitching around average this season. Let’s look at his career.
He’s a below average career pitcher who had a terrible season last year. Considering ARI has such a high PITCH let’s look at their other pitchers for the rest of this series.
The pitchers in tan are their starters listed on their roster. These are the guys the Cubs face next. Let’s look at lineups from each team’s last game.
Now that’s a rock ’em sock ’em lineup.
Cubs were missing Rizzo in the lineup so it dropped to even steven. ARI has a clear lineup advantage today. Here is their relief.
As expected their relief staff is top notch so if Corbin gets hit the pitchers following him will be better. The Cubs have been over valued all season at home and it appears that may be the case again tonight. The Cubs are +8, ARI is +15 so they are +7 over the Cubs. According to my chart ARI should have a 51.5% chance of winning if no other information is available. ARI has the better lineup but that lineup is going against better pitching. Tonight might be the easiest game of the series. This is the type of team the Cubs need to defeat if they expect to advance in the playoffs. We’ll see.