Cubs play the Giants in San Francisco and it’s a late late game. They had to fly out there after yesterday’s day game so hopefully they’re not jet lagged. Anyway, let’s take a look at this series. Here is a current team status line for SFN.
| BAT | PITCH | Rs | Ra | W | L | UR | LR | TeamID | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -59.3 | -43.1 | 453 | 559 | 44 | 69 | -0.2 | -3.4 | SFN |
BAT and PITCH underwater by a lot and that leads to them being -15 in the real win/loss columns. The Cubs are +6 so deltaWAA=21. If we lookup this in the table published here the Cubs should have around a 62% chance of winning each of the next three games with no other information available. Let’s see what the Ouija Board thinks (10am snapshot).
DATE 08_07 10:05_PM CHN SFN
LINEAWAY CHN [ 0.647 ] < 0.643 >
STARTAWAY 1.43(0.550) Jake_Arrieta_CHN
LINEHOME SFN [ 0.366 ] < 0.377 >
STARTHOME -4.60(0.331) Matt_Moore_SFN
Jake Arrieta is above water and Matt Moore is #6 in the bottom 200. The pitching deltaWAA=6. If we look at the table published here the Cubs have a 57% chance of winning with that pitcher differential and no other information known. Right now the market has the Cubs at around 64% which doesn’t seem that outrageous with what we now know. The irrational exuberance with Cubs bettors has mostly been confined to games at Wrigley.
Here are the starters listed on SFN’s current roster.
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +137+ | 1.81 | Madison_Bumgarner_SFN | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | 0.10 | Albert_Suarez_SFN | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | -0.17 | Ty_Blach_SFN | PITCH | |
| -084- | -1.97 | Jeff_Samardzija_SFN | PITCH | |
| -024- | -2.92 | Matt_Cain_SFN | PITCH | |
| -006- | -4.62 | Matt_Moore_SFN | PITCH | |
| Total | -7.77 |
Hello Jeff Samardzia. Hopefully he doesn’t have an epiphany if he faces the Cubs in this series. Let’s look at lineups from yesterday since this game is very very late.
| WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | PA | 08062017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.63 | Jon_Jay_CHN | CF | 252 | |
| 1.18 | Kris_Bryant_CHN | 3B | 445 | |
| 2.25 | Anthony_Rizzo_CHN | 1B | 473 | |
| 2.31 | Willson_Contreras_CHN | C | 357 | |
| -0.27 | Kyle_Schwarber_CHN | LF | 339 | |
| 0.61 | Ian_Happ_CHN | 2B | 261 | |
| 0.15 | Jason_Heyward_CHN | RF | 309 | |
| 1.22 | Javier_Baez_CHN | SS | 321 | |
| -0.23 | Jon_Lester_CHN | P | 47 | |
| TOTAL | WAA=6.57 | PA=2804 | WinPct=0.545 |
This might be the highest numbers for a CHN lineup all year. These numbers do not include yesterday’s results. Contreras is currently at +2.96 ranked #65 in MLB.
| WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | PA | 08062017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1.66 | Gorkys_Hernandez_SFN | CF | 257 | |
| -0.23 | Kelby_Tomlinson_SFN | SS | 108 | |
| 0.15 | Buster_Posey_SFN | 1B | 402 | |
| -0.53 | Hunter_Pence_SFN | RF | 361 | |
| -0.38 | Nick_Hundley_SFN | C | 179 | |
| -0.23 | Miguel_Gomez_SFN | 2B | 27 | |
| 0.08 | Jarrett_Parker_SFN | LF | 27 | |
| -0.34 | Ryder_Jones_SFN | 3B | 31 | |
| -0.82 | Jeff_Samardzija_SFN | P | 46 | |
| TOTAL | WAA=-3.95 | PA=1438 | WinPct=0.447 |
Lineup is underwater as expected. Looks like Samardzija pitched yesterday so the Cubs won’t see him. The WAAs for pitchers in these lineups are for their hitting. Pitchers have a hitting WAA and a pitching WAA. They are ranked only on pitching even though their hitting counts against a team’s totals.
The deltaWAA for these two lineups is around 10.5 in favor of the Cubs. We still don’t know what that means yet. The Cubs relief staff had some hiccups recently. Let’s look at the relievers the Giants have on their current roster.
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +086+ | 2.46 | Cory_Gearrin_SFN | PITCH | |
| +131+ | 1.91 | Hunter_Strickland_SFN | PITCH | |
| -135- | 0.92 | Sam_Dyson_SFN | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | 0.63 | Kyle_Crick_SFN | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | -1.09 | Chris_Stratton_SFN | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | -1.11 | Josh_Osich_SFN | PITCH | |
| -135- | -2.50 | Sam_Dyson_TEX | PITCH | |
| Total | 1.22 |
Overall they have a positive relief staff even though they were probably sellers in the trade market this season. Notice they acquired Sam Dyson from Texas who was at WAA=-2.50. He has contributed +0.92 to the Giants so his total for the year is the sum of those two values. Not sure which of the above is their long reliever should the Cubs knock their starter out early.
Still working on the lineup/pitcher combo tables and maybe we’ll do MLB leaders again. Then we’ll do AAA, AA, and A+ to see what’s going on there. Until then….