Cubs Giants series analysis

Cubs play the Giants in San Francisco and it’s a late late game.  They had to fly out there after yesterday’s day game so hopefully they’re not jet lagged.  Anyway, let’s take a look at this series.  Here is a current team status line for SFN.

-59.3 -43.1 453 559 44 69 -0.2 -3.4 SFN

BAT and PITCH underwater by a lot and that leads to them being -15 in the real win/loss columns.  The Cubs are +6 so  deltaWAA=21.  If we lookup this in the table published here the Cubs should have around a 62% chance of winning each of the next three games with no other information available.  Let’s see what the Ouija Board thinks (10am snapshot).

DATE 08_07 10:05_PM CHN SFN
LINEAWAY CHN [ 0.647 ] < 0.643 >
STARTAWAY 1.43(0.550) Jake_Arrieta_CHN
LINEHOME SFN [ 0.366 ] < 0.377 >
STARTHOME -4.60(0.331) Matt_Moore_SFN

Jake Arrieta is above water and Matt Moore is #6 in the bottom 200.  The pitching deltaWAA=6.  If we look at the table published here the Cubs have a 57% chance of winning with that pitcher differential and no other information known.  Right now the market has the Cubs at around 64% which doesn’t seem that outrageous with what we now know.  The irrational exuberance with Cubs bettors has mostly been confined to games at Wrigley.

Here are the  starters listed on SFN’s current roster.

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+137+ 1.81 Madison_Bumgarner_SFN PITCH
XXXXX 0.10 Albert_Suarez_SFN PITCH
XXXXX -0.17 Ty_Blach_SFN PITCH
-084- -1.97 Jeff_Samardzija_SFN PITCH
-024- -2.92 Matt_Cain_SFN PITCH
-006- -4.62 Matt_Moore_SFN PITCH
Total -7.77

Hello Jeff Samardzia.  Hopefully he doesn’t have an epiphany if he faces the Cubs in this series.  Let’s look at lineups from yesterday since this game is very very late.

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA 08062017
-0.63 Jon_Jay_CHN CF 252
1.18 Kris_Bryant_CHN 3B 445
2.25 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B 473
2.31 Willson_Contreras_CHN C 357
-0.27 Kyle_Schwarber_CHN LF 339
0.61 Ian_Happ_CHN 2B 261
0.15 Jason_Heyward_CHN RF 309
1.22 Javier_Baez_CHN SS 321
-0.23 Jon_Lester_CHN P 47
TOTAL WAA=6.57 PA=2804 WinPct=0.545

This might be the highest numbers for a CHN lineup all year.  These numbers do not include yesterday’s results.  Contreras is currently at +2.96 ranked #65 in MLB.

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA 08062017
-1.66 Gorkys_Hernandez_SFN CF 257
-0.23 Kelby_Tomlinson_SFN SS 108
0.15 Buster_Posey_SFN 1B 402
-0.53 Hunter_Pence_SFN RF 361
-0.38 Nick_Hundley_SFN C 179
-0.23 Miguel_Gomez_SFN 2B 27
0.08 Jarrett_Parker_SFN LF 27
-0.34 Ryder_Jones_SFN 3B 31
-0.82 Jeff_Samardzija_SFN P 46
TOTAL WAA=-3.95 PA=1438 WinPct=0.447

Lineup is underwater as expected.  Looks like Samardzija pitched yesterday so the Cubs won’t see him.  The WAAs for pitchers in these lineups are for their hitting.  Pitchers have a hitting WAA and a pitching WAA.  They are ranked only on  pitching even though their hitting counts against a team’s totals.

The deltaWAA for these two lineups is around 10.5 in favor of the Cubs.  We still don’t know what that means yet.  The Cubs relief staff had some hiccups recently.  Let’s look at the relievers the Giants have on their current roster.

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+086+ 2.46 Cory_Gearrin_SFN PITCH
+131+ 1.91 Hunter_Strickland_SFN PITCH
-135- 0.92 Sam_Dyson_SFN PITCH
XXXXX 0.63 Kyle_Crick_SFN PITCH
XXXXX -1.09 Chris_Stratton_SFN PITCH
XXXXX -1.11 Josh_Osich_SFN PITCH
-135- -2.50 Sam_Dyson_TEX PITCH
Total 1.22

Overall they have a positive relief staff even though they were probably sellers in the trade market this season.  Notice they acquired Sam Dyson from Texas who was at WAA=-2.50.  He has contributed +0.92 to the Giants so his total for the year is the sum of those two values.  Not sure which of the above is their long reliever should the Cubs knock their starter out early.

Still working on the lineup/pitcher combo tables and maybe we’ll do MLB leaders again.  Then we’ll do AAA, AA, and A+ to see what’s going on there.  Until then….