Cubs Blue Jays series analysis

Cubs start another series this afternoon so let’s look at the Blue Jays.   Here is their current status line.

-45.1 -25.4 517 593 59 62 -5.9 0.4 TOR

Terrible BAT, bad PITCH and they’re -3 for the season.  This is a team that is over performing their Pytahgorean Expectation estimation and has a bad UR.  This is what we said back during the Diamondback series analysis.

According to Pythagorean Expectation they should have around 3 more wins and 3 less losses.  We have observed a correlation between high negative unearned runs above average and a team under performing that estimation.  We’ll do a study on this later to prove, disprove, or can’t prove later in the season

TOR right now is an example that disproves the above.  We’ll look into that more later.  The Cubs are +6 and TOR is -2 so the deltaWAA is | 6 – (-2) | = 8 in favor of the Cubs.  According to the table shown here that gives the Cubs 0.565 out of the box, home/away advantage/disadvantage irrelevant.  Let’s see what the Ouija Board has to say.

DATE 08_18 2:20_PM  TOR CHN
LINEAWAY TOR [ 0.389 ] < 0.385 >
STARTAWAY 1.47(0.568) J.A._Happ_TOR
LINEHOME CHN [ 0.643 ] < 0.643 >
STARTHOME 2.06(0.566) Jake_Arrieta_CHN

Cubs are hovering once again around the 0.667 mark that is 2-1.  The starter differential is null as both Arrieta and Happ are above water.  <anti jinx on> Arrieta has been pitching well lately.  <anti jinx off>    Let’s look at the starters Cubs may face in this series.

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+018+ 4.79 Marcus_Stroman_TOR PITCH
+189+ 1.47 J.A._Happ_TOR PITCH
XXXXX -0.04 Nick_Tepesch_MIN PITCH
XXXXX -0.23 Nick_Tepesch_TOR PITCH
-036- -2.62 Marco_Estrada_TOR PITCH
Total 3.37

Happ is their second best starter and if they pitch Stroman the Cubs may be in trouble.  Here are their relievers who always get playing time.

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+153+ 1.74 Danny_Barnes_TOR PITCH
+183+ 1.51 Ryan_Tepera_TOR PITCH
+198+ 1.43 Roberto_Osuna_TOR PITCH
XXXXX 0.40 Chris_Rowley_TOR PITCH
XXXXX 0.17 Tim_Mayza_TOR PITCH
XXXXX -0.19 Aaron_Loup_TOR PITCH
XXXXX -0.80 J.P._Howell_TOR PITCH
XXXXX -0.97 Matt_Dermody_TOR PITCH
Total 3.29

Good relief.  Not as good as the Cubs’ relief but they won’t be easy to hit.  It’s the pitcher/hitter combo that matters.  Cubs relievers don’t play against TOR relievers.

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA 08182017
0.23 Jose_Bautista_TOR RF 524
1.32 Josh_Donaldson_TOR 3B 335
3.63 Justin_Smoak_TOR 1B 477
0.06 Steve_Pearce_TOR LF 273
-0.99 Miguel_Montero_TOT C 157
-3.38 Kevin_Pillar_TOR CF 484
-0.73 Ryan_Goins_TOR SS 317
-2.25 Darwin_Barney_TOR 2B 252
0.00 J.A._Happ_TOR P 0
TOTAL WAA=-2.10 PA=2819 WinPct=0.486

Their lineup is under water and they have extremes at both ends of MLB with Smoak and Pillar.  WAR has Pillar in the top 100 but I don’t want to get into that right now.  The above numbers are correct.

EditDarwin Barney’s 2012 WAR was the inspiration for developing this data model.   He’s batting 8th and I just noticed.  Welcome back Darwin!  BTW: WAR currently has Barney in their bottom 100.  His WAR shine wore off after 2012.

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA 08182017
-0.53 Albert_Almora_CHN CF 245
1.74 Kris_Bryant_CHN 3B 500
2.94 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B 524
-1.32 Ben_Zobrist_CHN LF 353
1.30 Ian_Happ_CHN 2B 290
-0.25 Victor_Caratini_CHN C 40
-0.02 Jason_Heyward_CHN RF 347
1.95 Javier_Baez_CHN SS 369
-0.59 Jake_Arrieta_CHN P 53
TOTAL WAA=5.23 PA=2721 WinPct=0.537

Cubs lineup has been increasing slowly for the last bunch of weeks and they’re almost at 0.540 which might be around their high for the season.  This is still a mid-tier lineup and when we explain lineup/pitcher combos we can place it into better context.

Irrational exuberance has been the norm for the Cubs playing at Wrigley Field.  The only number we know is 0.565 from a single table.  Cubs are fielding a better lineup and pitchers are a wash.   We don’t have any more information so the Ouija Board seems high for the Cubs line.

The probability for TOR is 1-0.565 = 0.435.  The TOR line is 0.385.  With what we don’t know this difference isn’t enough so this game would go into the discard bin.  We still are working on the pitcher/lineup combo tables which will use the value system defined by this data model.

Weekly state of the Cubs tomorrow or Sunday and then we’ll look at A+ and perhaps one day next week we’ll get these pitcher/lineup tables sorted out.  Until then….