Cubs Reds series analysis

We just did this analysis 10 days ago and you can read it here.  There is no point rehashing all of that again because nothing much has changed.  It’s an away game so let’s see what the Ouija Board has to say.

DATE 08_22 7:10_PM  CHN CIN
LINEAWAY CHN [ 0.623 ] < 0.630 >
STARTAWAY -0.94(0.468) John_Lackey_CHN
LINEHOME CIN [ 0.408 ] < 0.400 >
STARTHOME -5.12(0.067) Homer_Bailey_CIN

Both pitchers below average but Bailey is way below average.  He’s #4 in the bottom 200, a list no one wants to be #1.  We did a brief write up about Bailey when he signed a $17.5M contract back in February 2014.  Let’s do a dump of his career.

Year WAA Name_TeamID Pos Rank
2007 -1.4 Homer_Bailey_CIN PITCH XXXXX
2008 -3.0 Homer_Bailey_CIN PITCH -063-
2009 -0.7 Homer_Bailey_CIN PITCH XXXXX
2010 -1.0 Homer_Bailey_CIN PITCH XXXXX
2011 -1.6 Homer_Bailey_CIN PITCH -169-
2012 1.5 Homer_Bailey_CIN PITCH XXXXX
2013 1.6 Homer_Bailey_CIN PITCH XXXXX
2014 0.2 Homer_Bailey_CIN PITCH XXXXX
2015 -0.4 Homer_Bailey_CIN PITCH XXXXX
2016 -1.3 Homer_Bailey_CIN PITCH XXXXX
2017 -5.1 Homer_Bailey_CIN PITCH -005-
Total -11.2

He’s having a career bad year this season and has been an overall below average pitcher even after 2013 when the Reds signed him.

Rank WAR Name_TeamID Pos
155 2.5 Homer_Bailey_CIN PITCH 2012
120 3.2 Homer_Bailey_CIN PITCH 2013

This is his two year split before his February 2014 contract signing.  There is a formula floating around somewhere that links WAR value with yearly $$$ value and it appears this is what the Reds were looking at then.

The betting market has the Cubs favored at 0.630 rising from its opening.  The Cubs are +9 right now in the real wins and losses that the Commissioner of MLB cares about.  The Reds are -19 therefore ….

deltaWAA= | -19 – 9 | = 28

Looking that up in our table post here we get the Cubs should be at 0.630.  Wow, spot on!  Are they reading this blog?  🙂   We haven’t figured out lineup/pitcher combos which would be using this data model to shift that number.  The Reds have either a slightly above average lineup or a well above average lineup depending upon who starts.  The Cubs still have a slightly above average lineup going against a bottom tier pitcher.  Not sure this would affect the 0.630 number because because lineup/pitcher combos are not independent from wins and losses.  A team with a far greater WAA than the other team will have far better players too.

If the Reds put up their good lineup against a sub average Lackey that could wipe out the slightly above average Cubs lineup going against the Reds’ bottom tier starting pitcher.  If those two are a wash should that depress the 0.630 number?  I don’t know.  This is a work in progress and all we have are past results.

A+ minor leagues coming soon, maybe tomorrow, and then … I don’t know.  Until then….