Cubs Phillies series analysis

Today the Cubs play the Phillies in Philadelphia.  Let’s look at this series.

BAT PITCH Rs Ra W L UR LR TeamID
-76.6 -36.3 515 626 46 80 2.0 -1.3 PHI

Hitting terrible, pitching less terrible but bad, and their real WAA is -34 if I did the subtraction in my head correctly.  Looks like  Ryne Sandberg wasn’t the problem with this team after all.   Since the Cubs are +10 the deltaWAA for these two teams is a whopping 44.  Looking this up in our table published here the Cubs should have around a 0.67 chance today and that’s exactly what the Ouija Board says.

DATE 08_25 7:05_ CHN PHI
LINEAWAY CHN [ 0.643 ] < 0.667 >
STARTAWAY 0.29(0.509) Jose_Quintana_TOT
LINEHOME PHI [ 0.389 ] < 0.357 >
STARTHOME -0.10(0.496) Jerad_Eickhoff_PHI

Both pitchers hovering around average so according to current season data this pitching matchup is a wash.  We know Quintana has proven upside potential due to his overall career numbers but what about Jerad?

Year WAA Name_TeamID Pos Rank
2015 1.6 Jerad_Eickhoff_PHI PITCH XXXXX
2016 2.5 Jerad_Eickhoff_PHI PITCH +130+
2017 -0.1 Jerad_Eickhoff_PHI PITCH XXXXX
Total 4.0

A very capable pitching career.  Best season last year where he was ranked #130.  Not bad at all.  Let’s see PHI’s other starters who may face the Cubs next.

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+098+ 2.54 Aaron_Nola_PHI PITCH
XXXXX 0.82 Ben_Lively_PHI PITCH
XXXXX -0.10 Drew_Anderson_PHI PITCH
XXXXX -0.13 Jerad_Eickhoff_PHI PITCH
Total 3.13

Pretty decent considering their PITCH value in team status.  Here are their relievers.

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+141+ 1.91 Luis_Garcia_PHI PITCH
+187+ 1.53 Hector_Neris_PHI PITCH
XXXXX 0.88 Hoby_Milner_PHI PITCH
XXXXX 0.76 Mark_Leiter_PHI PITCH
XXXXX 0.27 Yacksel_Rios_PHI PITCH
XXXXX -0.46 Jake_Thompson_PHI PITCH
XXXXX -0.46 Adam_Morgan_PHI PITCH
XXXXX -0.99 Edubray_Ramos_PHI PITCH
XXXXX -1.16 Jesen_Therrien_PHI PITCH
Total 2.28

Above average starters, above average relievers so their pitching is better than their seasonal run differential indicates.  This is to be expected later in the season.  Teams are constantly in flux.  Let’s look at both lineups tonight.

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA 08252017
-1.16 Ben_Zobrist_CHN 2B 370
0.06 Kyle_Schwarber_CHN LF 393
1.60 Kris_Bryant_CHN 3B 517
3.23 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B 548
1.53 Ian_Happ_CHN CF 305
0.42 Alex_Avila_TOT C 314
0.29 Jason_Heyward_CHN RF 367
2.42 Javier_Baez_CHN SS 391
-0.29 Jose_Quintana_TOT P 16
TOTAL WAA=8.11 PA=3221 WinPct=0.548

This might be the best lineup for the Cubs all season so far.  We’re going to do weekly Cubs status tomorrow which will show more.  The Cubs have been piling players into the top 200 recently.

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA 08252017
-1.87 Cesar_Hernandez_PHI 2B 422
-2.18 Freddy_Galvis_PHI SS 520
0.71 Nick_Williams_PHI RF 190
1.32 Rhys_Hoskins_PHI LF 59
-0.84 Tommy_Joseph_PHI 1B 464
-1.45 Maikel_Franco_PHI 3B 504
0.19 Pedro_Florimon_PHI CF 17
-0.21 Jorge_Alfaro_PHI C 37
-0.61 Jerad_Eickhoff_PHI P 32
TOTAL WAA=-4.93 PA=2245 WinPct=0.458

As expected the Phillies have a below average lineup.  We’re still working on lineup/starter combo tables.  Today would be a good (not great) tier 2 lineup going against a mediocre pitcher versus a bad tier 2 lineup going against a mediocre pitcher.  These kind of matchups should be expected for two teams with a deltaWAA of 44 between them.

Ouija Board seems spot on for the Cubs which means you have no advantage betting them.   The only time you make a bet is if your derived probability exceeds the line by a lot where the meaning of “a lot” is a work in progress.   The probability of PHI winning tonight is 1 – 0.67 = 0.33 and the line for PHI is 0.36 so it’s a losing proposition betting them too.  This game is a discard if it were up to an algorithm.

Weekly Cubs status tomorrow and then … I don’t know.  Until then….