Today the Cubs play the Phillies in Philadelphia. Let’s look at this series.
| BAT | PITCH | Rs | Ra | W | L | UR | LR | TeamID | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -76.6 | -36.3 | 515 | 626 | 46 | 80 | 2.0 | -1.3 | PHI |
Hitting terrible, pitching less terrible but bad, and their real WAA is -34 if I did the subtraction in my head correctly. Looks like Ryne Sandberg wasn’t the problem with this team after all. Since the Cubs are +10 the deltaWAA for these two teams is a whopping 44. Looking this up in our table published here the Cubs should have around a 0.67 chance today and that’s exactly what the Ouija Board says.
DATE 08_25 7:05_ CHN PHI
LINEAWAY CHN [ 0.643 ] < 0.667 >
STARTAWAY 0.29(0.509) Jose_Quintana_TOT
LINEHOME PHI [ 0.389 ] < 0.357 >
STARTHOME -0.10(0.496) Jerad_Eickhoff_PHI
Both pitchers hovering around average so according to current season data this pitching matchup is a wash. We know Quintana has proven upside potential due to his overall career numbers but what about Jerad?
| Year | WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | Rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 1.6 | Jerad_Eickhoff_PHI | PITCH | XXXXX | |
| 2016 | 2.5 | Jerad_Eickhoff_PHI | PITCH | +130+ | |
| 2017 | -0.1 | Jerad_Eickhoff_PHI | PITCH | XXXXX | |
| Total | 4.0 |
A very capable pitching career. Best season last year where he was ranked #130. Not bad at all. Let’s see PHI’s other starters who may face the Cubs next.
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +098+ | 2.54 | Aaron_Nola_PHI | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | 0.82 | Ben_Lively_PHI | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | -0.10 | Drew_Anderson_PHI | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | -0.13 | Jerad_Eickhoff_PHI | PITCH | |
| Total | 3.13 |
Pretty decent considering their PITCH value in team status. Here are their relievers.
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +141+ | 1.91 | Luis_Garcia_PHI | PITCH | |
| +187+ | 1.53 | Hector_Neris_PHI | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | 0.88 | Hoby_Milner_PHI | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | 0.76 | Mark_Leiter_PHI | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | 0.27 | Yacksel_Rios_PHI | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | -0.46 | Jake_Thompson_PHI | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | -0.46 | Adam_Morgan_PHI | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | -0.99 | Edubray_Ramos_PHI | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | -1.16 | Jesen_Therrien_PHI | PITCH | |
| Total | 2.28 |
Above average starters, above average relievers so their pitching is better than their seasonal run differential indicates. This is to be expected later in the season. Teams are constantly in flux. Let’s look at both lineups tonight.
| WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | PA | 08252017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1.16 | Ben_Zobrist_CHN | 2B | 370 | |
| 0.06 | Kyle_Schwarber_CHN | LF | 393 | |
| 1.60 | Kris_Bryant_CHN | 3B | 517 | |
| 3.23 | Anthony_Rizzo_CHN | 1B | 548 | |
| 1.53 | Ian_Happ_CHN | CF | 305 | |
| 0.42 | Alex_Avila_TOT | C | 314 | |
| 0.29 | Jason_Heyward_CHN | RF | 367 | |
| 2.42 | Javier_Baez_CHN | SS | 391 | |
| -0.29 | Jose_Quintana_TOT | P | 16 | |
| TOTAL | WAA=8.11 | PA=3221 | WinPct=0.548 |
This might be the best lineup for the Cubs all season so far. We’re going to do weekly Cubs status tomorrow which will show more. The Cubs have been piling players into the top 200 recently.
| WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | PA | 08252017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1.87 | Cesar_Hernandez_PHI | 2B | 422 | |
| -2.18 | Freddy_Galvis_PHI | SS | 520 | |
| 0.71 | Nick_Williams_PHI | RF | 190 | |
| 1.32 | Rhys_Hoskins_PHI | LF | 59 | |
| -0.84 | Tommy_Joseph_PHI | 1B | 464 | |
| -1.45 | Maikel_Franco_PHI | 3B | 504 | |
| 0.19 | Pedro_Florimon_PHI | CF | 17 | |
| -0.21 | Jorge_Alfaro_PHI | C | 37 | |
| -0.61 | Jerad_Eickhoff_PHI | P | 32 | |
| TOTAL | WAA=-4.93 | PA=2245 | WinPct=0.458 |
As expected the Phillies have a below average lineup. We’re still working on lineup/starter combo tables. Today would be a good (not great) tier 2 lineup going against a mediocre pitcher versus a bad tier 2 lineup going against a mediocre pitcher. These kind of matchups should be expected for two teams with a deltaWAA of 44 between them.
Ouija Board seems spot on for the Cubs which means you have no advantage betting them. The only time you make a bet is if your derived probability exceeds the line by a lot where the meaning of “a lot” is a work in progress. The probability of PHI winning tonight is 1 – 0.67 = 0.33 and the line for PHI is 0.36 so it’s a losing proposition betting them too. This game is a discard if it were up to an algorithm.
Weekly Cubs status tomorrow and then … I don’t know. Until then….