Cubs Pirates series analysis

Tonight Cubs start a series with the Pirates at home. We have seen irrational exuberance over the Cubs in the markets for games at Wrigley throughout this season. Let’s see what today’s results bring. Note: Weekly Cubs status delayed for another day or so.

Let’s look at team status for the Pirates now and when the Cubs last played them.

-43.5 5.2 359 392 40 46 0.7 3.6 PIT 7/7/2017
-51.6 1.6 555 602 63 68 1.1 0.9 PIT 8/28/2017

BAT is down, PITCH is down and the Pirates went 23-22 going from -6 to -5 WAA in all those weeks of baseball games.  See how baseball is a marathon?  Let’s look at the Ouija Board and their players.

DATE 08_28 8:05_PM PIT CHN
LINEAWAY PIT [ 0.400 ] < 0.400 >
STARTAWAY -0.32(0.488) Trevor_Williams_PIT
LINEHOME CHN [ 0.630 ] < 0.623 >
STARTHOME 2.27(0.600) Mike_Montgomery_CHN

If you bet the PIT line, at 0.400, you’d get $1.50 for every dollar risked today.  Cubs have a clear starting pitching advantage today.  This would be a tier2 pitcher on CHN going against a tier3 pitcher on PIT.   There are 5 tiers, 1 the best, 2 between best and average, 3 average, 4 between average and worst, and 5 worst.   We’ll talk more about tiers when we start the series on lineup/pitcher tables.

Here are PIT pitchers listed as starters on their roster.

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
XXXXX 1.24 Ivan_Nova_PIT PITCH
XXXXX 1.18 Gerrit_Cole_PIT PITCH
XXXXX 0.02 Steven_Brault_PIT PITCH
XXXXX -0.32 Trevor_Williams_PIT PITCH
XXXXX -0.71 Chad_Kuhl_PIT PITCH
XXXXX -1.16 Jameson_Taillon_PIT PITCH
Total 0.25

None of their starters are in the top 200.  Ivan Nova had a bad couple of months dropping almost 2 wins on his own.  This might be a tier4 starting pitching staff.  Here is their relief staff.

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+024+ 4.58 Felipe_Rivero_PIT PITCH
+135+ 2.02 Juan_Nicasio_PIT PITCH
+189+ 1.57 A.J._Schugel_PIT PITCH
XXXXX -0.21 Angel_Sanchez_PIT PITCH
XXXXX -0.25 Johnny_Barbato_PIT PITCH
XXXXX -0.38 Daniel_Hudson_PIT PITCH
Total 7.33

Decent relief.  This looks like a tier2 relief staff.  Since we don’t have lineups we’ll just list the Pirates’ hitters according to their roster.   When we do weekly Cubs status we’ll list Cubs’ players.

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+082+ 2.83 Andrew_McCutchen_PIT CF-RF
+095+ 2.58 Josh_Bell_PIT 1B
XXXXX 1.24 Jose_Osuna_PIT RF-1B-LF
XXXXX 0.00 Elias_Diaz_PIT CR
XXXXX -0.13 Adam_Frazier_PIT LF-2B-RF
XXXXX -0.19 Starling_Marte_PIT LF-CF
XXXXX -0.19 Max_Moroff_PIT 2B
XXXXX -1.20 John_Jaso_PIT RF-1B-LF
-200- -1.30 Josh_Harrison_PIT 2B-3B
-144- -1.62 David_Freese_PIT 3B
-079- -2.08 Chris_Stewart_PIT CR
-076- -2.10 Jordy_Mercer_PIT SS
Total -2.16

PIT has a below average hitting squad.  At this time of season most teams have a positive total in their roster because bad players come off the books.  I would guess this is tier4.  Cubs have a tier2 lineup but lineups do not play lineups.

The Cubs have a real WAA of +9 and PIT is at -5 making the deltaWAA 14 in favor of the Cubs.  According to this table the Cubs should have a 0.600 chance of winning today.  PIT has  a 0.400 chance.  0.400 is exactly the PIT line right now and 0.600 is less than the CHN line so this game goes into the discard bin without any other information

We have a tier2 pitcher (CHN) against a tier4 lineup (PIT) and a tier3 pitcher (PIT)  against a tier 2 lineup (CHN).  In the generated tables this will bring up some, possibly different probabilities.  These two lineup/pitcher combo matchups are to be expected with a team deltaWAA/2 = 14/2 = 7 games ahead in the standings.  If one or both of the above two matchups were reversed that could push the probability in PIT’s favor away from the W-L table.

We’re almost ready to show some results in lineup/pitcher combos and weekly Cubs status coming.  Until then….