Today we’ll show a single table tabulating Win% for all 25 lineup starter combinations. The win percentage is with respect to the lineup. So if it says 0.450 the starter Win % would be 1-0.450 = 0.550. Not too complicated.
The first column in the below table is lineup_tier – starter_tier. So a 1-1 means a tier 1 lineup facing a tier 1 starter. The second column shows how often the lineup wins.
Lineup-Starter Tiers | Win% | |
---|---|---|
1-1 | 0.511 | |
1-2 | 0.534 | |
1-3 | 0.546 | |
1-4 | 0.549 | |
1-5 | 0.560 | |
2-1 | 0.483 | |
2-2 | 0.502 | |
2-3 | 0.535 | |
2-4 | 0.538 | |
2-5 | 0.549 | |
3-1 | 0.455 | |
3-2 | 0.481 | |
3-3 | 0.505 | |
3-4 | 0.522 | |
3-5 | 0.522 | |
4-1 | 0.436 | |
4-2 | 0.446 | |
4-3 | 0.482 | |
4-4 | 0.510 | |
4-5 | 0.505 | |
5-1 | 0.434 | |
5-2 | 0.446 | |
5-3 | 0.468 | |
5-4 | 0.466 | |
5-5 | 0.476 |
These are raw numbers and haven’t been smoothed. We are also playing around with how averages get calculated so the above numbers might change a little. Or perhaps not.
From 1-1 to 1-5 the win percentage increase which is expected. From 5-1 to 5-5 it also increases with worse starting pitching. Since a tier 5 lineup is the worst it has a below average win percentage which also is expected.
What does this table mean? We don’t know. In the Cubs/Brewer series analysis be did yesterday the Cubs had a tier 2 lineup against a Brewer tier 2 starter or 2-2. That is even steven 0.500 for the lineup. The Brewers had a tier 3 lineup against a tier 4 starter, 3-4. The Brewers had a 0.522 advantage which goes against the 0.565 advantage the Cubs had in the real deltaWAA table. The should depress the Cubs’ probability but how much? We don’t know.
In the next part to this series we’ll count only runs a starter gives up against a lineup. Until then….