Lineup Starter Combo Tables Part 3

Lineup starter combos are not independent from the real deltaWAA tables.  Real deltaWAA is calculated by

deltaWAA = | realWAA(home) – realWAA(away) |

The table posted here will provide a probability for the team with the higher WAA if there is no other information available.  We have other information in the value of starters and lineups which we have discussed throughout this season.  In each game there are two lineup starter combination, on for each team.   A very good team with a high WAA will also have either high value starters or high value lineups or both.

Today we’ll run some  numbers to find out what is the lineup starter composition of teams if each tier in their real deltaWAA tier.  Tiers are categorized into 5 groups.

  1. average + 1 standard deviation
  2. average + 1/2 standard deviation
  3. average
  4. average – 1/2 standard deviation
  5. average – 1 standard deviation.

We can do this for real team wins and losses which is a real WAA which is the most accurate measure in baseball and the only measure the Commissioner of MLB looks at when determining who goes to the playoffs.  From the average comes a standard deviation from which should get us 5 more or less equal sets.  Tier 1 is the best.  The Dodgers would be tier 1 as well as perhaps WAS and HOU.

The next step is evaluating strength of a team’s lineup and starter.  We have each separated into 5 tiers.  If we exclude lineup or starter from mattering meaning a 2 lineup, 3 starter is equivalent to a 3 lineup, 2 starter.  If the pairs are unordered we get 9 combinations which we’ll label 1 through 9 to make things simple.

The calculation of getting one through nine is simple.

Strength of team = lineup tier + starter tier  – 1

A 1-1 team would have a strength of 1 + 1 – 1 = 1.   A 5-5 teams would have a strength of 5 + 5 -1 = 9.  Not too complicated.

Now that is setup I present you two tables.   Here is the first table comments will follow.

realTier Stregth #Games % for Realtier
1 1 1519 0.085
1 2 2304 0.130
1 3 5384 0.303
1 4 3598 0.202
1 5 3359 0.189
1 6 1109 0.062
1 7 471 0.026
1 8 35 0.002
1 9 4 0.000
2 1 450 0.028
2 2 1029 0.063
2 3 3652 0.223
2 4 3625 0.222
2 5 4547 0.278
2 6 1929 0.118
2 7 964 0.059
2 8 123 0.008
2 9 29 0.002
3 1 345 0.009
3 2 884 0.023
3 3 5071 0.133
3 4 6940 0.182
3 5 11378 0.298
3 6 7126 0.187
3 7 4897 0.128
3 8 1182 0.031
3 9 375 0.010
4 1 35 0.002
4 2 139 0.009
4 3 915 0.059
4 4 1689 0.109
4 5 3987 0.256
4 6 3502 0.225
4 7 3621 0.233
4 8 1191 0.077
4 9 466 0.030
5 1 27 0.001
5 2 65 0.004
5 3 450 0.025
5 4 951 0.052
5 5 3327 0.184
5 6 3842 0.212
5 7 5612 0.310
5 8 2465 0.136
5 9 1387 0.077

That’s a lot of numbers and here is an abbreviated table.

real Tier Strength
1 3.58
2 4.30
3 5.02
4 5.78
5 6.43

Above are averages of strength with the real wins tier.  As tier increases strength decreases at almost the same rate.

That is all for today and I’m not sure what all this means.  Cubs start a new series with NYN tomorrow so we’ll do a series analysis.  Until then….