Cubs Mets series analysis

Cubs start a series with the Mets tonight so let’s take a look at the Mets and what the Cubs will have to face these next three games.  Here is team status for the Mets.

BAT PITCH Rs Ra W L UR LR TeamID
-2.8 -65.6 663 741 63 80 -4.7 -4.9 NYN

According to run differential this team is -17 in the win/loss columns because of pitching.  Their hitting has been around average all season.  The Cubs are +11 so the deltaWAA between these two teams is 28 in favor of the Cubs.  According to our table that gives the Cubs a (let’s call it) 0.64 probability of winning tonight with no other information.  Let’s see what the Ouija Board thinks.

DATE 09_12 8:05_PM Sep_12_10:17:03 NYN CHN
LINEAWAY NYN [ 0.312 ] < 0.294 >
STARTAWAY -2.39(0.390) Robert_Gsellman_NYN
LINEHOME CHN [ 0.722 ] < 0.737 >
STARTHOME 0.15(0.504) Jose_Quintana_TOT

Yikes!  The Ouija Board either knows something or it’s another example of irrational exuberance over games played at Wrigley Field.  Quintana is a tier 3 average pitcher and Gsellman is tier 5.  Starters don’t play other starters, they play lineups.  Let’s look at the two lineups. (lineups from 9/10)

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA 09102017
-0.53 Jose_Reyes_NYN 2B 483
-0.27 Norichika_Aoki_TOT LF 258
-0.13 Brandon_Nimmo_NYN CF 134
-0.38 Travis_d’Arnaud_NYN C 327
-0.10 Dominic_Smith_NYN 1B 108
-0.99 Amed_Rosario_NYN SS 114
-0.34 Travis_Taijeron_NYN RF 26
-0.99 Matt_Reynolds_NYN 3B 106
-0.71 Jacob_deGrom_NYN P 70
TOTAL WAA=-4.43 PA=1626 WinPct=0.448

Eyeballing this that looks like a tier 4 lineup.  Notice the plate appearance total (in olive) is very low for this time of the season so  Mets are playing the new guys — as they should.  New guys can be inspired to play hard.  We’ll see.

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA 09102017
-0.67 Jon_Jay_CHN CF 371
0.42 Tommy_La_Stella_CHN 3B 127
1.55 Kris_Bryant_CHN LF 590
4.96 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B 614
2.18 Ian_Happ_CHN 2B 353
2.71 Javier_Baez_CHN SS 450
-0.02 Jason_Heyward_CHN RF 421
-0.50 Rene_Rivera_TOT C 221
-0.21 Kyle_Hendricks_CHN P 42
TOTAL WAA=10.42 PA=3189 WinPct=0.563

Cubs have a tier 2 lineup now.  So we have a tier 2 Cubs lineup against a tier 5 NYN starter.  According to this table that gives the Cubs (0.55).  The Mets have a tier 4 lineup against a tier 3 starter.  That table gives the Mets a 0.48 disadvantage.  What does that mean?  We don’t know.  It shows we have more information that should push the deltaWAA probability in favor of the Cubs somewhat.

Good teams will have good lineups and starters and the opposite with bad teams.  The strength table shown at the end of this post shows the average strength for the 5 tiers.  Right now the Cubs as a team are tier 2 using the real win/loss columns and the Mets are tier 4.

Strength = lineup tier + starter tier – 1

The Cubs are 2 + 3 – 1 = 4 strength.  The Mets have a strength of 4 + 5 – 1 = 8.  Not too complicated!   The average strength of a tier 2 team is 4.3 according to that table.  The Cubs  strength for tonight is above that.  A tier 4 team has an average strength of 5.8 and the Mets are well below that tonight.  With that knowledge it is appropriate to move the basic deltaWAA table in favor of the Cubs which is what the Ouija Board did.

The Ouija Board is at 0.737 and there is no way our extra information pushes the probability that high.  It could but we would need a probability of 0.84 or higher to bet the CHN line.  This is a discard game for Cubs fans.

For Mets’ fans the line is 0.294 and our deltaWAA table gives the Mets 1-0.64=0.36 probability of winning.  That’s greater than the Ouija Board and close to our margin threshold to bet.  You are getting a big premium if the Mets win tonight.  Unfortunately since our information will move this line in favor of the Cubs that lowers our predicted Mets probability of 0.36, making it closer to the line.  Thus, the Mets’ line is a discard also..

OK, enough of that.  Here are the Mets’ starters and relievers, many of whom we’ll see in the next three games.  Weekly Cubs status tomorrow or the next day.  Until then….

Starters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+073+ 3.38 Jacob_deGrom_NYN PITCH
XXXXX -0.48 Seth_Lugo_NYN PITCH
-028- -1.01 Tommy_Milone_MIL PITCH
-028- -2.29 Tommy_Milone_NYN PITCH
-077- -2.35 Robert_Gsellman_NYN PITCH
-055- -2.56 Matt_Harvey_NYN PITCH
-039- -2.94 Christopher_Flexen_NYN PITCH
Total -8.25

Relievers

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+198+ 1.55 Jerry_Blevins_NYN PITCH
XXXXX 0.71 AJ_Ramos_MIA PITCH
XXXXX 0.65 Chasen_Bradford_NYN PITCH
XXXXX 0.48 AJ_Ramos_NYN PITCH
XXXXX 0.29 Erik_Goeddel_NYN PITCH
XXXXX 0.23 Jacob_Rhame_NYN PITCH
XXXXX 0.06 Jamie_Callahan_NYN PITCH
XXXXX 0.02 Kevin_McGowan_NYN PITCH
XXXXX -0.23 Paul_Sewald_NYN PITCH
XXXXX -0.42 Hansel_Robles_NYN PITCH
XXXXX -0.53 Jeurys_Familia_NYN PITCH
XXXXX -1.26 Josh_Smoker_NYN PITCH
-173- -1.51 Rafael_Montero_NYN PITCH
Total 0.04