I’m a little late as the Cubs Cardinals game starts at 1:20pm. Let’s look at the current Cardinals team.
| BAT | PITCH | Rs | Ra | W | L | UR | LR | TeamID | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12.8 | 71.9 | 696 | 616 | 77 | 69 | -5.0 | -0.7 | SLN |
Hitting so so, pitching very good, possibly tier 1 and the Cardinals are +8 for the season. The Cubs are now +14 thanks to the Mets. DeltaWAA is 6 or the Cardinals are 3 games behind the first place Cubs. We’ll do a complete playoff horse race soon. According to our deltaWAA table that should give the Cubs a 0.54 advantage with no other information. Let’s see what the Ouija Board says.
DATE 09_15 2:20_PM SLN CHN
LINEAWAY SLN [ 0.500 ] < 0.495 >
STARTAWAY 4.51(0.608) Carlos_Martinez_SLN
LINEHOME CHN [ 0.545 ] < 0.528 >
STARTHOME -0.94(0.473) John_Lackey_CHN
Cardinals have a tier 1 starter in Martinez. Lackey is tier 4 for the Cubs. Pitchers pitch against lineups however. Let’s look at the two lineups today.
| WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | PA | 09152017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.01 | Matt_Carpenter_SLN | 3B | 573 | |
| 4.18 | Tommy_Pham_SLN | LF | 463 | |
| 1.41 | Paul_DeJong_SLN | SS | 380 | |
| 2.29 | Jose_Martinez_SLN | 1B | 261 | |
| 1.24 | Yadier_Molina_SLN | C | 509 | |
| -1.13 | Stephen_Piscotty_SLN | RF | 356 | |
| 0.32 | Kolten_Wong_SLN | 2B | 378 | |
| 0.00 | Harrison_Bader_SLN | CF | 71 | |
| 0.04 | Carlos_Martinez_SLN | P | 61 | |
| TOTAL | WAA=9.34 | PA=3052 | WinPct=0.559 |
Not bad. Let’s call this a tier 2 lineup.
| WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | PA | 09152017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.92 | Ben_Zobrist_CHN | 2B | 440 | |
| 2.42 | Kris_Bryant_CHN | 3B | 610 | |
| 5.21 | Anthony_Rizzo_CHN | 1B | 633 | |
| 2.90 | Willson_Contreras_CHN | C | 387 | |
| 0.61 | Kyle_Schwarber_CHN | LF | 450 | |
| -0.53 | Jon_Jay_CHN | CF | 381 | |
| 0.38 | Jason_Heyward_CHN | RF | 438 | |
| 3.13 | Javier_Baez_CHN | SS | 467 | |
| -1.07 | John_Lackey_CHN | P | 56 | |
| TOTAL | WAA=12.12 | PA=3862 | WinPct=0.560 |
This looks like a tier 2 also. We don’t have the code written yet to determine current year averages so have to guestimate this right now based upon past seasons on this day in the year.
SLN has a 2 lineup facing a CHN 4 starter. According to the table posted here that gives them a 0.54 advantage.
CHN has a 2 lineup facing a 1 starter. That gives them a 0.48 disadvantage. The estimated probability in the deltaWAA table of 0.54 must move towards the Cardinals. The Ouija Board might be right on the money so this game is a discard for both teams. The CHN line might be a little high which would be consistent with other CHN lines when they played at Wrigley this season.
And finally, here are the pitchers SLN will throw at the Cubs during this series.
Starters
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +018+ | 5.56 | Lance_Lynn_SLN | PITCH | |
| +037+ | 4.49 | Carlos_Martinez_SLN | PITCH | |
| +106+ | 2.75 | Luke_Weaver_SLN | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | 1.28 | Michael_Wacha_SLN | PITCH | |
| Total | 14.08 |
Pretty good starting pitching!
Relievers
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +143+ | 2.18 | Tyler_Lyons_SLN | PITCH | |
| +126+ | 2.10 | Juan_Nicasio_PIT | PITCH | |
| +160+ | 1.95 | John_Brebbia_SLN | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | 1.28 | Sam_Tuivailala_SLN | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | 0.67 | Seung-hwan_Oh_SLN | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | 0.46 | Brett_Cecil_SLN | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | 0.44 | Matthew_Bowman_SLN | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | 0.42 | John_Gant_SLN | PITCH | |
| +126+ | 0.13 | Juan_Nicasio_SLN | PITCH | |
| +126+ | 0.13 | Juan_Nicasio_PHI | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | 0.00 | Ryan_Sherriff_SLN | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | -0.04 | Sandy_Alcantara_SLN | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | -0.36 | Zach_Duke_SLN | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | -0.55 | Jack_Flaherty_SLN | PITCH | |
| Total | 8.81 |
Solid relief as well and a little better than the Cubs right now according to our last Cubs status report.