Cubs Cardinals series analysis

I’m a little late as the Cubs Cardinals game starts at 1:20pm.  Let’s look at the current Cardinals team.

BAT PITCH Rs Ra W L UR LR TeamID
12.8 71.9 696 616 77 69 -5.0 -0.7 SLN

Hitting so so, pitching very good, possibly tier 1 and the Cardinals are +8 for the season.  The Cubs are now +14 thanks to the Mets.  DeltaWAA is 6 or the Cardinals are 3 games behind the first place Cubs.  We’ll do a complete playoff horse race soon.  According to our deltaWAA table that should give the Cubs a 0.54 advantage with no other information.  Let’s see what the Ouija Board says.

DATE 09_15 2:20_PM  SLN CHN
LINEAWAY SLN [ 0.500 ] < 0.495 >
STARTAWAY 4.51(0.608) Carlos_Martinez_SLN
LINEHOME CHN [ 0.545 ] < 0.528 >
STARTHOME -0.94(0.473) John_Lackey_CHN

Cardinals have a tier 1 starter in Martinez.  Lackey is tier 4 for the Cubs.  Pitchers pitch against lineups however.  Let’s look at the two lineups today.

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA 09152017
1.01 Matt_Carpenter_SLN 3B 573
4.18 Tommy_Pham_SLN LF 463
1.41 Paul_DeJong_SLN SS 380
2.29 Jose_Martinez_SLN 1B 261
1.24 Yadier_Molina_SLN C 509
-1.13 Stephen_Piscotty_SLN RF 356
0.32 Kolten_Wong_SLN 2B 378
0.00 Harrison_Bader_SLN CF 71
0.04 Carlos_Martinez_SLN P 61
TOTAL WAA=9.34 PA=3052 WinPct=0.559

Not bad.  Let’s call this a tier 2 lineup.

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA 09152017
-0.92 Ben_Zobrist_CHN 2B 440
2.42 Kris_Bryant_CHN 3B 610
5.21 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B 633
2.90 Willson_Contreras_CHN C 387
0.61 Kyle_Schwarber_CHN LF 450
-0.53 Jon_Jay_CHN CF 381
0.38 Jason_Heyward_CHN RF 438
3.13 Javier_Baez_CHN SS 467
-1.07 John_Lackey_CHN P 56
TOTAL WAA=12.12 PA=3862 WinPct=0.560

This looks like a tier 2 also.  We don’t have the code written yet to determine current year averages so have to guestimate this right now based upon past seasons on this day in the year.

SLN has a 2 lineup facing a CHN 4 starter.  According to the table posted here that gives them a 0.54 advantage.

CHN has a 2 lineup facing a 1 starter.  That gives them a 0.48 disadvantage.  The estimated probability in the deltaWAA table of 0.54 must move towards the Cardinals.   The Ouija Board might be right on the money so this game is a discard for both teams.  The CHN line might be a little high which would be consistent with other CHN lines when they played at Wrigley this season.

And finally, here are the pitchers SLN will throw at the Cubs during this series.

Starters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+018+ 5.56 Lance_Lynn_SLN PITCH
+037+ 4.49 Carlos_Martinez_SLN PITCH
+106+ 2.75 Luke_Weaver_SLN PITCH
XXXXX 1.28 Michael_Wacha_SLN PITCH
Total 14.08

Pretty good starting pitching!

Relievers

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+143+ 2.18 Tyler_Lyons_SLN PITCH
+126+ 2.10 Juan_Nicasio_PIT PITCH
+160+ 1.95 John_Brebbia_SLN PITCH
XXXXX 1.28 Sam_Tuivailala_SLN PITCH
XXXXX 0.67 Seung-hwan_Oh_SLN PITCH
XXXXX 0.46 Brett_Cecil_SLN PITCH
XXXXX 0.44 Matthew_Bowman_SLN PITCH
XXXXX 0.42 John_Gant_SLN PITCH
+126+ 0.13 Juan_Nicasio_SLN PITCH
+126+ 0.13 Juan_Nicasio_PHI PITCH
XXXXX 0.00 Ryan_Sherriff_SLN PITCH
XXXXX -0.04 Sandy_Alcantara_SLN PITCH
XXXXX -0.36 Zach_Duke_SLN PITCH
XXXXX -0.55 Jack_Flaherty_SLN PITCH
Total 8.81

Solid relief as well and a little better than the Cubs right now according to our last Cubs status report.