Playoff Horse Race Part 2

Today we’ll cover the playoff horse race with a table of the top 15 teams.  We published a similar table on August 30 showing valuations according to this data model using  current rosters.  With September call ups rosters will be expanded.  Here is a current table as of today.

TeamID Hitters Pitchers Starters Relief Total W-L
LAN 8.11 32.50 19.65 12.85 40.61 43  -10
CLE 15.20 31.36 13.10 18.26 46.56 36  +18
HOU 23.00 10.48 16.24 -5.76 33.48 33
WAS 12.63 27.87 20.20 7.67 40.50 31
ARI 15.63 24.88 19.20 5.68 40.51 24
BOS 4.22 25.14 10.54 14.60 29.36 21
CHN 16.45 13.55 5.94 7.61 30.00 17
NYA 19.33 21.91 11.10 10.81 41.24 15
COL 19.59 0.59 -4.60 5.19 20.18 14
MIL 3.70 17.40 5.60 11.80 21.10 9
MIN 6.70 -4.83 -5.17 0.34 1.87 7
SLN 8.39 22.06 12.91 9.15 30.45 5
ANA 4.15 1.80 -4.59 6.39 5.95 3
SEA 5.04 -0.87 -2.81 1.94 4.17 -2
TEX 15.52 -0.52 -2.16 1.64 15.00 -3

The layout of this table is the same as before.  Columns are team value for hitters, pitchers, starters, relievers and the total for the entire roster.  Teams are sorted from top to bottom by the  W-L column.

The 6 teams highlighted in purple are leading their division and green are  wild card leaders for each league.  Our data model does not discern AL or NL so neither does this table.  The bottom 15 teams have been eliminated for clarity.

Dodgers and Indians top MLB with their records.  The last notes column highlights their WAA (W-L) since August 30, part 1 of this series.  LAN has dropped 10 and CLE has added 18, both of which are incredible streaks in their respective directions.  The Dodgers won’t encounter the Indians until the World Series if they get there.   Teams that flat line into the playoffs may not perform very well.  We’ll look into that when we do historical playoff data.

The highlights above were hand colored so there may be mistakes.  Bold blue is top of that category, bold red bottom.  Regular blue second top (or close to tied for second),, regular red worst runner up.   We eliminated half of MLB so these bottoms are for the teams that are left.

LAN has the best pitching now they have Kershaw and Wood back but CLE is a very close second.  A LAN/CLE World Series could be a pitching duel.  Cleveland has the best relief and Washington the best group of starters.  Since the above includes call ups this will shift when playoff rosters are decided.  Right now Cleveland has the best total value according to our data model, Yankees second.   Yankees could get knocked out in WC round early unless they overtake Boston.  NYA needs to make up 6 real wins.

The worst teams are in red.  Amazing Minnesota is still eligible to be a wild card.   The  Cardinals have a +30 team and they’re currently not eligible for anything.  That  shows how diligent their front office is keeping them competitive throughout the season and most likely into the future.

That is all for now.  Cubs start a new series tomorrow.  We’re having problems with the historical playoff data which may take a couple of days to compile.  Playoffs are only a couple weeks away.  Until then….