The Cubs play the Tampa Bay Rays tonight. We know the Cubs so let’s take a look at the Rays. Here is their team status so far this season.
| BAT | PITCH | Rs | Ra | W | L | UR | LR | TeamID | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -57.3 | 48.7 | 635 | 659 | 73 | 77 | -11.1 | -6.4 | TBA |
Terrible hitting for the season, good pitching, and TBA is -4 for the season. Their UR of -11 shows they have had terrible fielding this season — worse than the Cubs. The Cubs may get some freebie runs this series more than the freebies they may let up. Let’s see what the Ouija Board thinks of today.
DATE 09_19 7:10_PM CHN TBA
LINEAWAY CHN [ 0.512 ] < 0.463 >
STARTAWAY 2.23(0.585) Mike_Montgomery_CHN
LINEHOME TBA [ 0.535 ] < 0.558 >
STARTHOME 1.24(0.530) Chris_Archer_TBA
------------------------------------
CHN 83 66 TBA 73 77
DELTAWAA 21 WINPCT 0.619 CHN
We added two new rows to highlight each team’s record, the deltaWAA which we discussed before and the expected probability derived from the deltaWAA table. The Cubs should have a 0.62 chance of winning solely based upon win/loss records.
Yikes! The Cubs are underdogs! How could that be? I double checked this with ESPN. This may be the first time in over two years where Cubs fans can legitimately bet on the Cubs. The CHN line of 0.46 is well below our margin of 0.1. Montgomery is better than Archer this season although Archer has a better overall career. Let’s call both starters tier 3 and look at each lineup tonight.
| WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | PA | 09192017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.55 | Jon_Jay_CHN | CF | 390 | |
| -0.97 | Ben_Zobrist_CHN | LF | 454 | |
| 5.27 | Anthony_Rizzo_CHN | 1B | 647 | |
| 2.86 | Willson_Contreras_CHN | C | 393 | |
| 0.61 | Kyle_Schwarber_CHN | DH | 458 | |
| 2.58 | Ian_Happ_CHN | 2B | 378 | |
| 0.48 | Jason_Heyward_CHN | RF | 446 | |
| 0.17 | Addison_Russell_CHN | SS | 353 | |
| 3.07 | Javier_Baez_CHN | 3B | 477 | |
| TOTAL | WAA=13.52 | PA=3996 | WinPct=0.565 |
That’s a tier 2 lineup and that’s without Kris Bryant. The Cubs have really improved hitting from earlier in the season.
| WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | PA | 09192017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.44 | Kevin_Kiermaier_TBA | CF | 385 | |
| 0.99 | Steven_Souza_TBA | RF | 579 | |
| -0.42 | Evan_Longoria_TBA | 3B | 635 | |
| 1.89 | Logan_Morrison_TBA | 1B | 555 | |
| -0.63 | Wilson_Ramos_TBA | C | 196 | |
| -0.06 | Lucas_Duda_TOT | DH | 455 | |
| -1.87 | Adeiny_Hechavarria_TOT | SS | 313 | |
| -0.42 | Corey_Dickerson_TBA | LF | 593 | |
| -2.37 | Brad_Miller_TBA | 2B | 378 | |
| TOTAL | WAA=-3.34 | PA=4089 | WinPct=0.484 |
This is a below average lineup, possibly tier 4 but we’ll call it tier 3.
We have a tier 2 CHN lineup going against a tier 3 TBA starter and a tier 3 TBA lineup going against a tier 3 CHN starter. This may or may not move the probability in favor of the Cubs but it certainly won’t make up the difference.
There has to be a reason for this and it could be the markets are using WAR. WAR has Archer unranked like we do so that’s not it. Let’s look at what WAR thinks of the current TBA batters.
| Rank | WAR | Name_TeamID | Pos | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +051+ | 4.0 | Kevin_Kiermaier_TBA | CF | |
| +064+ | 3.7 | Steven_Souza_TBA | RF | |
| +068+ | 3.6 | Evan_Longoria_TBA | 3B-DH | |
| +074+ | 3.5 | Logan_Morrison_TBA | 1B-DH | |
| +184+ | 2.1 | Corey_Dickerson_TBA | LF-DH | |
| XXXXX | 1.5 | Lucas_Duda_TOT | 1B-DH | |
| XXXXX | 1.3 | Mallex_Smith_TBA | CF-LF | |
| XXXXX | 0.9 | Adeiny_Hechavarria_TOT | SS | |
| XXXXX | 0.4 | Jesus_Sucre_TBA | CR | |
| XXXXX | 0.3 | Brad_Miller_TBA | 2B-DH | |
| XXXXX | 0.1 | Peter_Bourjos_TBA | CF-LF-RF | |
| -253- | -0.3 | Trevor_Plouffe_TOT | 3B-DH | |
| -141- | -0.5 | Wilson_Ramos_TBA | CR | |
| -009- | -1.4 | Danny_Espinosa_TOT | 2B | |
| Total | 19.20 |
WAR has their hitting squad ranked pretty high for a team that is so underwater in runs scored. Look at all the batters above in the top 100. That’s a lot for a team that’s -4 in the win/loss columns. It can’t be for exceptional fielding with TBA having a team UR=-11 can it?
I don’t know. We’re calling the CHN line as an opportunity. It should be noted we have not proven this system with the last 7 years of daily line data. One game will not prove or disprove any of this. If you’re going to bet anyway, you may as well bet the Cubs today. This is probably the first opportunity since early 2015.
Anyway, enough of that. Here is a roster pitcher dump of starters and relievers the Cubs will see these next couple of day.
Starters
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +103+ | 2.86 | Alex_Cobb_TBA | PITCH | |
| +146+ | 2.18 | Jacob_Faria_TBA | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | 1.24 | Chris_Archer_TBA | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | 0.23 | Blake_Snell_TBA | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | -0.17 | Matt_Andriese_TBA | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | -0.36 | Jake_Odorizzi_TBA | PITCH | |
| Total | 5.98 |
Relievers
| Rank | WAA | Name_TeamID | Pos | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +115+ | 2.62 | Tommy_Hunter_TBA | PITCH | |
| +181+ | 1.78 | Alex_Colome_TBA | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | 1.68 | Sergio_Romo_TBA | PITCH | |
| +159+ | 1.47 | Steve_Cishek_TBA | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | 1.20 | Chase_Whitley_TBA | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | 1.03 | Dan_Jennings_CHA | PITCH | |
| +159+ | 0.57 | Steve_Cishek_SEA | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | 0.48 | Andrew_Kittredge_TBA | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | 0.38 | Chaz_Roe_TBA | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | 0.25 | Brad_Boxberger_TBA | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | 0.19 | Jose_Alvarado_TBA | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | 0.02 | Dan_Jennings_TBA | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | -0.21 | Chaz_Roe_ATL | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | -0.90 | Ryne_Stanek_TBA | PITCH | |
| XXXXX | -1.03 | Sergio_Romo_LAN | PITCH | |
| -177- | -1.55 | Austin_Pruitt_TBA | PITCH | |
| Total | 7.98 |