Cubs Brewers series analysis

Cubs start a series with the Brewers tonight.  We did this almost two weeks ago so this report will be abbreviated.

BAT PITCH Rs Ra W L UR LR TeamID
36.8 -3.4 221 190 24 18 2.5 0.1 MIL 5/19/2017
28.1 -1.7 504 478 55 50 -1.5 0.1 MIL 7/29/2017
-25.1 35.6 628 621 72 68 -3.9 0.4 MIL 9/8/2017
-15.6 57.5 693 653 81 71 -2.7 0.9 MIL 9/21/2017

Above are all four status lines from these Cubs Brewers series analysis posts.  You can clearly see how the Brewers went from a hitting centric team to pitching centric.  This is quite amazing.  Mid May they had a real WAA=+6 and today they’re at +10.  They gained 4 wins in all these months proving once again a baseball season is a marathon.

Let’s see what the Ouija Board has to say about tonight.

DATE 09_21 8:10_PM CHN MIL
LINEAWAY CHN [ 0.583 ] < 0.561 >
STARTAWAY 3.38(0.595) Jake_Arrieta_CHN
LINEHOME MIL [ 0.455 ] < 0.459 >
STARTHOME 1.95(0.549) Zach_Davies_MIL
------------------------------------
CHN 84 67 MIL 81 71
DELTAWAA 7 WINPCT 0.565 CHN

The two new lines added to this snippet shows all the numbers required to calculate deltaWAA and then the expected probability (WINPCT) from the deltaWAA lookup table described here.

Our expected probability almost exactly matches the Ouija Board making this a complete discard for both lines.  We need a clear advantage on the house to bet a game and if there’s no clear advantage then the bettor always loses in the long run.

The Cubs have a tier 2 starter in Arrieta and MIL has tier 3 starter in Davies.  WAR has them reversed BTW.  CHN has a tier 2 lineup.  MIL still has tier 3.  See lineups from our analysis two weeks ago.   Both teams are tier 2 based upon their respective real team WAA.  This should push the expected probability in favor of CHN somewhat but in no way enough to break the margin required for betting the CHN line.   A more exact amount is still a work in progress.

Not much is different from the last time we did this.  The playoff horse race post shows how the Brewers’ team value compares with the rest of playoff contenders.  We’ll do one more before the end of the season.  Weekly Cubs’ status tomorrow.

Below is a data dump of all pitchers the Brewers’ may throw at the Cubs the next couple of days.

Starters

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+029+ 4.83 Chase_Anderson_MIL PITCH
+168+ 1.95 Zach_Davies_MIL PITCH
XXXXX 1.57 Brent_Suter_MIL PITCH
XXXXX 0.90 Brandon_Woodruff_MIL PITCH
XXXXX 0.06 Taylor_Williams_MIL PITCH
XXXXX -1.13 Junior_Guerra_MIL PITCH
-160- -1.66 Matt_Garza_MIL PITCH
Total 6.52

Relivers

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos
+031+ 4.70 Corey_Knebel_MIL PITCH
+126+ 2.56 Josh_Hader_MIL PITCH
+063+ 2.50 Anthony_Swarzak_CHA PITCH
XXXXX 1.49 Jared_Hughes_MIL PITCH
+063+ 1.32 Anthony_Swarzak_MIL PITCH
XXXXX 0.57 Jeremy_Jeffress_MIL PITCH
XXXXX 0.29 Jacob_Barnes_MIL PITCH
XXXXX 0.15 Carlos_Torres_MIL PITCH
XXXXX 0.10 Oliver_Drake_MIL PITCH
XXXXX -0.08 Wei-Chung_Wang_MIL PITCH
XXXXX -0.29 Oliver_Drake_BAL PITCH
XXXXX -0.29 Aaron_Wilkerson_MIL PITCH
XXXXX -0.86 Jeremy_Jeffress_TEX PITCH
Total 12.16

Swarzak has two entries because he played for the White Sox at the beginning of the season.  He’s ranked on the sum of his WAAs for both teams.  The White Sox gave up a good pitcher.  Hopefully they got some decent prospects for him.