Playoff Horse Race Part 3

There are only a few days left in the season.  Let’s take one final look at the playoff horse race before we actually dive into the playoffs.  As explained in Part1 and Part2, the following table is derived by taking current rosters and adding up players’ WAA into groups of hitters, starters, and relievers.  We add starters and relievers to get pitchers and pitchers and hitters to get a team total.  The last column is the only column that matters, real wins and losses.  Once in the playoffs even regular season wins and losses won’t matter anymore.

TeamID Hitters Pitchers Starters Relief Total W-L
LAN 9.96 35.75 21.55 14.20 45.71 44
CLE 16.07 33.23 15.27 17.96 49.30 39
HOU 25.82 10.24 15.20 -4.96 36.06 37
WAS 18.80 29.58 20.48 9.10 48.38 33
BOS 5.06 26.14 9.88 16.26 31.20 25
ARI 19.29 22.28 16.47 5.81 41.57 24
NYA 23.28 24.74 10.59 14.15 48.02 19
CHN 17.32 14.72 6.19 8.53 32.04 19
COL 17.53 2.23 -3.49 5.72 19.76 12
MIN 10.06 -5.27 -7.04 1.77 4.79 9
MIL 2.01 18.43 6.71 11.72 20.44 9
SLN 8.49 17.05 7.63 9.42 25.54 7
ANA 2.78 1.46 -3.94 5.40 4.24 -1

Teams colored in purple are division leaders, most of whom have already clinched, green are the 4 wild card teams.  MIL and SLN still might have a shot at overtaking COL.  The Cubs haven’t completely clinched the NLCS either.

Bold blue are top value scores for that category, regular blue second.  Bold red the worst, regular red second worst in the above list.  The Yankees will probably get in through a wild card yet on paper they are more or less tied having second best total value in MLB with the Nationals.  Cleveland has the best team on paper and MIN has the worst of the ten teams in post season (if the above stands).  Cleveland has the best relief and Houston has the worst.  Houston may start with Boston who has the second best relief squad in MLB.  The Dodgers still have the best set of starters and best overall pitching.  Houston and the Yankees have the best hitting of the bunch.

It’s hard to say which team will end up on top.  NYA should be heavily favored over MIN but then they’ll have to face the Cleveland Indians.  Can NYA’s hitting defeat CLE’s pitching?    The Dodgers will probably face ARI who have a similar total value and the Cubs will have to deal with the Nationals who have much better starters and hitting.  Dusty Baker conveniently chose not to let Cub hitters see Gonzalez or Scherzer during their last series.

More historical playoff data coming soon.  Had to rewrite some scripts to compile the event data but they’re almost finished.