Cubs Reds series analysis

Technically this Cubs Reds series is like pre-season  since none of these games  matter to either team.   Both teams will be trying out the new guys.  We covered the Reds a little over a month ago on 8/22 and 8/14.  The Reds’ status hasn’t changed much since and you can read about it here.   Here’s what the Ouija Board thinks of today.

DATE 09_29 2:20_PM CIN CHN
LINEAWAY CIN [ 0.385 ] < 0.377 >
STARTAWAY -0.86(0.451) Robert_Stephenson_CIN
LINEHOME CHN [ 0.649 ] < 0.643 >
STARTHOME 1.28(0.531) Jose_Quintana_TOT
------------------------------------
CIN 67 92 CHN 90 69
DELTAWAA 46 WINPCT 0.711 CHN

The deltaWAA Win% is about the highest that table goes right now.  The difference of 0.07 between our estimated probability and the actual line is less than our threshold of 0.10 which would make this a discard.   Quintana is a tier 3 starter and Stephenson is around tier 4.  With all the the new guys playing we can only assume each team is fielding a tier 3 lineup today.  We have these two pairs:

  1. 3-4  Tier 3 CHN lineup vs. Tier 4 CIN starter
  2. 3-3  Tier 3 CIN lineup vs. Tier 3 CHN starter

Because CHN has such a better record than CIN  the Cubs should have better than a 3 lineup and 3 starter playing today.  CIN is a tier 5 team so their fielding a tier 3 lineup with a tier 4 starter is above expectation.  This means the above two pairs should push the deltaWAA derived probability  in favor of the Reds making the CHN line even more of a discard.  Right now we don’t have anything proven that can more accurately determine how much the line moves.  That is a work in progress for the off season.  We only know the direction the line should move which is better than nothing.

That is all for now.  We have historical playoff events compiled and we’ll publish part 2 of the playoff season series tomorrow.  Cubs wrap up after these last three games with the Reds.  Until then….