Playoff Horse Race Part 4

This episode in our playoff horse race series shows a table listing the top MLB teams sorted by their total value based upon current roster.  There are only 8 teams left and a playoff roster is the most culled of any roster a manager has for an entire season.  It is expected that these will be much higher than regular season and they are.  Here is the current table listing the 8 MLB teams left in the playoffs.

TeamID Hitters Pitchers Starters Relief Total W-L
WAS 21.66 30.56 21.09 9.47 52.22 32
NYA 23.19 28.63 11.38 17.25 51.82 20
CLE 19.30 28.61 17.35 11.26 47.91 42
LAN 10.48 36.91 21.29 15.62 47.39 46
HOU 25.71 19.67 16.69 2.98 45.38 40
ARI 15.99 24.49 15.98 8.51 40.48 24
CHN 18.85 20.20 7.41 12.79 39.05 22
COL 19.80 7.53 -0.11 7.64 27.33 12
BOS 7.56 19.71 8.69 11.02 27.27 24

Correction 10/9/2017For some reason I left out BOS who are in the playoffs and left COL who got eliminated by ARI in the NL wild card gaem.  BOS has the worst total WAA of the 8 teams left.  As of now they’re down 2-1 in ALDS with one more home game.  This will be easier when there are only four teams.

Unlike Part one, two, and three, this table is sorted by best total WAA value according to this data model.  In part 3 made a couple days before the end of the season Cleveland led in total value with 49.3.  Now Washington is on top,.

Starters and relievers add to make pitchers, hitters and pitchers add to make total.  Bold blue is the top team in that category, regular blue second.  For starters WAS and LAN are close enough to be considered tied for the best starting staff.  This can be deceiving because some teams are placing relievers in as starters.   Right now the Yankees have the best relief with Dodgers second.  Dodger relievers as a squad helped win a playoff game yesterday.  Yankee relievers as a squad lost a playoff game yesterday and badly.

The numbers above represent past results based upon 162 games of data.  The playoff season can make great players play terribly.

Rank WAA IP ERA Gs Gr Name_TeamID Pos
-013- -2.50 107.3 4.53 18 4 CC_Sabathia_TOT PITCH  playoffs
-030- -1.91 89.0 4.45 14 4 Clayton_Kershaw_LAN PITCH  playoffs

Neither of the above pitched well last night.  Kershaw is arguably the best pitcher since Greg Maddux.

Rank WAA IP ERA Gs Gr Name_TeamID Pos
+182+ 1.16 197.7 3.28 30 8 Greg_Maddux_TOT PITCH

Maddux pitched almost 200 innings in post season.  Considering this is Greg Maddux he should be ranked at least in the top 100 or top 50.  He pitched well but even Greg Maddux didn’t pitch completely like Greg Maddux in the playoffs.

Note the Cubs have the second lowest total.  The Cubs were an average team at the All Star break and they climbed to their current total mostly in the second half of the season.  If we called the first half of the season a Mulligan and sorted on second half value the above table would look very different.  Perhaps that’s something to do for Part 5.  Until then….