Handicapping Cubs 10/9/2017

We already covered the details of both Cubs and Nationals a few days ago.  Today we’ll simply handicap the Cubs game.

DATE 10_09 4:05_PM WAS CHN
LINEAWAY WAS [ 0.559 ] < 0.520 >
STARTAWAY 8.55(0.692) Max_Scherzer_WAS
LINEHOME CHN [ 0.461 ] < 0.500 >
STARTHOME 0.88(0.521) Jose_Quintana_TOT
------------------------------------
WAS 97 65 CHN 92 70
DELTAWAA 10 WINPCT 0.582 WAS

Note: The DeltaWAA bottom two lines above are regular season lookups which do not apply to post season. They are shown to provide context.

Cubs are underdogs today but not by much.  If you think CHN has a greater than  50/50  chance of winning bet the Cubs.  The number in [] is the starting quote so the line has been moving towards the Cubs from 0.461. Based upon the above WAS has a Tier 1 starter, CHN has a Tier 3 (average) starter pitching today.

Max Scherzer should win the NL Cy Young award this year but can he pitch in the playoffs?

Rank WAA IP ERA Gs Gr Name_TeamID Pos
XXXXX -0.36 74.7 3.74 12 4 Max_Scherzer_TOT PITCH  playoffs

Over almost 75 innings pitched he’s playoff season league average.  The above would drop him to Tier 3 along with Quintana.  Quintana has no playoff experience so he could go in any direction; up, down, or sideways today.  Let’s look at lineups

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA 10092017
1.49 Trea_Turner_WAS SS 447
6.89 Bryce_Harper_WAS RF 492
3.97 Anthony_Rendon_WAS 3B 605
4.89 Daniel_Murphy_WAS 2B 593
6.47 Ryan_Zimmerman_WAS 1B 576
-0.46 Jayson_Werth_WAS LF 289
-1.60 Matt_Wieters_WAS C 465
0.61 Michael_Taylor_WAS CF 432
-0.84 Max_Scherzer_WAS P 72
TOTAL WAA=21.42 PA=3971 WinPct=0.604

That’s a solid Tier 1 lineup.

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA 10092017
-0.25 Jon_Jay_CHN CF 433
2.96 Kris_Bryant_CHN 3B 665
4.85 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B 691
2.50 Willson_Contreras_CHN C 428
-0.86 Ben_Zobrist_CHN 2B 496
1.28 Kyle_Schwarber_CHN LF 486
0.57 Jason_Heyward_CHN RF 481
0.50 Addison_Russell_CHN SS 385
-0.19 Jose_Quintana_TOT P 33
TOTAL WAA=11.36 PA=4098 WinPct=0.553

This is a solid Tier 2 lineup.  Baez is missing here which would boost it a little higher but it would still be Tier 2.  Baez will probably come in to knock in runs when needed.

We have the following pairs for this game”

  1. 1-3  Tier 1 WAS lineup vs.  Tier 3 CHN starter  -> 5.1 runs for WAS
  2. 2-1  Tier 2 CHN lineup vs. Tier 1 WAS starter  -> 4.3 runs for CHN

Pair 1 yields 5.1 runs for Washington.  Pair 2 yields 4.3 runs for CHN.  CHN is an underdog according to lineup-starter combos.  According to our last playoff horse race CHN has better relief.  If Max Scherzer plays like playoff Max Scherzer then WAS starter drops to Tier 3 and pair 2 becomes 2-3 yielding 4.9 runs for CHN. The advantage CHN has with relief would then make this pretty much an even steven game which is almost exactly where the betting market is right now.  When our expected probability matches the betting market both lines are a discard, do not bet.

Now that has been taken care of let’s look at the other 3 games on this busy day.

HOU vs. BOS

DATE 10_09 1:05_PM HOU BOS
LINEAWAY HOU [ 0.535 ] < 0.519 >
STARTAWAY 2.46(0.575) Charlie_Morton_HOU
LINEHOME BOS [ 0.488 ] < 0.505 >
STARTHOME -1.97(0.456) Rick_Porcello_BOS
------------------------------------
HOU 101 61 BOS 93 69
DELTAWAA 16 WINPCT 0.616 HOU

Tier 3  HOU starter vs. Tier 4 BOS starter.  Here is Porcello in post season.

Rank WAA IP ERA Gs Gr Name_TeamID Pos
-147- -1.03 20.7 5.66 3 8 Rick_Porcello_TOT PITCH

HOU has a Tier 1 lineup, BOS Tier 3. We have the following pairs:

  1. 1-4  HOU 1 lineup vs. BOS 4 starter  –> 5.2 runs for HOU
  2. 3-3  BOS 3 lineup vs HOU 3 starter  –> 4.9 runs for BOS

Pairs 1 and 2 show a close matchup.  HOU has the worst relief of all teams left in the playoffs so the Ouija Board is right on the money with this.  Both lines a discard, do not bet.

CLE vs. NYA

DATE 10_09 7:05_PM CLE NYA
LINEAWAY CLE [ 0.392 ] < 0.408 >
STARTAWAY 0.69(0.518) Trevor_Bauer_CLE
LINEHOME NYA [ 0.623 ] < 0.615 >
STARTHOME 6.09(0.642) Luis_Severino_NYA
------------------------------------
CLE 102 60 NYA 91 71
DELTAWAA 22 WINPCT 0.631 CLE

Tier 1 NYA starter, Tier 3 CLE starter.  Both teams teams Tier 1 hitting.

  1. 1-1 yields 4.3 runs for CLE
  2. 1-3 yields 5.1 runs for NYA.

Both relief squads excellent.  If we had our simulations done they would most likely show the betting markets are again right on the money making both lines a discard, do not bet.

LAN vs.ARI

DATE 10_09 10:05_PM LAN ARI
LINEAWAY LAN [ 0.539 ] < 0.524 >
STARTAWAY 2.16(0.552) Yu_Darvish_TOT
LINEHOME ARI [ 0.483 ] < 0.500 >
STARTHOME 5.44(0.621) Zack_Greinke_ARI
------------------------------------
LAN 104 58 ARI 93 69
DELTAWAA 22 WINPCT 0.631 LAN

Greinke is Tier 2, Darvish Tier 3.  LAN has a Tier 2 lineup, ARI Tier 1 lineup.

Rank WAA IP ERA Gs Gr Name_TeamID Pos
XXXXX -0.02 58.3 3.55 9 2 Zack_Greinke_TOT PITCH

Greinke is an average pitcher post season and Darvish doesn’t have enough post season  playing time to make that determination.

  1. 1-3 yields 5.1 runs for ARI
  2. 2-2 yields  4.5 runs for LAN

Update 10/12/2017:  Yu Darvish should have been Tier 2 not Tier 3.  We were doing this manually.  This would make pair 1 a 1-2 combo which would yield 4.7 runs for ARI making the original pairs even closer to the betting markets.  Since we are from the future we know LAN wins this game.  Both lines would be even more of a discard with Darvish as Tier 2 instead of Tier 3.

If Grienke is considered Tier 3 based upon his post season numbers then pair 2 becomes 2-3 and LAN gets 4.9 runs evening this game out.  Right now LAN is favored so you wouldn’t bet that line.  In order to bet the ARI line they would need to have a 58% – 60% chance of winning and although the original two pairs may yield that result ( we haven’t done the simulations yet! ), Greinke’s poor playoff performance would nullify that making that line a discard as well.

tl;dr  Stay away from the sports book.  No games to bet on today.