Handicapping Cubs Nationals 10/11/2017

Not really anything different from yesterday.  Still cold and humid.  This sudden change in weather can make people sick and that’s the reason given for why Strasburg isn’t starting.  Joe Maddon kept Arrieta in the rotation as well.   IMHO, successful managers manage people and people have feelings and must have their head in the game to be the success that put up the numbers that make managers want to pitch them as often as possible.   Neither Strasburg nor Hendricks were thinking of pitching in Chicago.  They are (hopefully not!!!) supposed to meet in Game 5, if there’s a game 5.  If not Hendricks starts against Kershaw.

This is a rather cold day so bats could be muted no matter who is on the mound.  This means Dusty would be wasting Strasburg by pitching him today on top of rearranging his head and maybe he really is sick.  Ditto for Hendricks/Arrieta.

So we have the same two pitchers, same two lineups let’s see if the Ouija Board looks any different.

DATE 10_11 4:05_PM WAS CHN
LINEAWAY WAS [ 0.400 ] < 0.485 >
STARTAWAY 7.46(0.691) Stephen_Strasburg_WAS
LINEHOME CHN [ 0.615 ] < 0.537 >
STARTHOME 3.17(0.585) Jake_Arrieta_CHN
------------------------------------
WAS 97 65 CHN 92 70
DELTAWAA 10 WINPCT 0.582 WAS

What’s this?  Strasburg is pitching!  WAS now has a Tier 1 lineup, Tier 1 starter facing a Tier2 Cubs lineup and Tier 2 Cubs starter.  On paper Washington should be favored but a rain delayed cold and miserable game may be too much of a wild card.   I had to manually check these lines and they are very tumultuous as one would expect.  🙂  The above may be different in 5 minutes.

I’m leaving the first three paragraphs in for posterity.  I’m not going to make any proclamations so as not to incur any jinxes or curses.  The game is in two hours and whatever happens happens.  Below are the two lineups according to this data model.  Past results do not affect future results, they merely show capability.  Until then….

WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA 10112017
1.49 Trea_Turner_WAS SS 447
-0.46 Jayson_Werth_WAS LF 289
6.89 Bryce_Harper_WAS RF 492
6.47 Ryan_Zimmerman_WAS 1B 576
4.89 Daniel_Murphy_WAS 2B 593
3.97 Anthony_Rendon_WAS 3B 605
-1.60 Matt_Wieters_WAS C 465
0.61 Michael_Taylor_WAS CF 432
-0.65 Stephen_Strasburg_WAS P 60
TOTAL WAA=21.61 PA=3959 WinPct=0.605
WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA 10112017
-0.25 Jon_Jay_CHN CF 433
2.96 Kris_Bryant_CHN 3B 665
4.85 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B 691
2.50 Willson_Contreras_CHN C 428
-0.86 Ben_Zobrist_CHN LF 496
0.50 Addison_Russell_CHN SS 385
0.57 Jason_Heyward_CHN RF 481
3.25 Javier_Baez_CHN 2B 508
-0.84 Jake_Arrieta_CHN P 64
TOTAL WAA=12.68 PA=4151 WinPct=0.559