ALCS Game 1

Today the ALCS starts between Yankees and Astros.  NYA is coming off a tough 5 game ALDS and, like the Cubs tomorrow, they have to dig deep for pitchers.

TeamID Hitters Pitchers Starters Relief Total W-L
NYA 23.76 27.71 11.05 16.66 51.47 20
HOU 25.58 20.83 17.85 2.98 46.41 40
LAN 12.18 33.80 19.90 13.90 45.98 46
CHN 18.85 20.93 7.41 13.52 39.78 22

Above are their value lines according to this data model.  Houston has very weak relief, NYA has top of MLB relief.  Both HOU and NYA have the best hitting of the 4 teams left.  Each will field a Tier 1 lineup throughout the playoffs.   The Yankees have a weak set of starting pitchers as listed on their roster and it didn’t help burning their best starters at the end their 5 game ALDS.  Let’s see what the Ouija Board says about today.

DATE 10_13 8:05_PM NYA HOU
LINEAWAY NYA [ 0.370 ] < 0.379 >
STARTAWAY -1.72(0.457) Masahiro_Tanaka_NYA
LINEHOME HOU [ 0.643 ] < 0.635 >
STARTHOME 4.87(0.650) Dallas_Keuchel_HOU
NYA 91 71 HOU 101 61

The DeltaWAA line is a regular season lookup which isn’t applicable to post season.  It is displayed as an FYI.

Keuchel is Tier 1, Tanaka is Tier 4.  He had a bad season this year.  He came over after having a phenomenal year in the Japan Pacific League.  Even the Cubs bid on him in 2013.  Here are his MLB career numbers to put his capability into perspective.

Year WAA Name_TeamID Pos Rank
2014 3.1 Masahiro_Tanaka_NYA PITCH +089+
2015 1.5 Masahiro_Tanaka_NYA PITCH XXXXX
2016 5.4 Masahiro_Tanaka_NYA PITCH +023+
2017 -1.7 Masahiro_Tanaka_NYA PITCH -162-
Total 8.3

An overall above average solid career with one bad season which happens to be this year.  He was ranked #23 last season which is very very good.

That said we have the following lineup-starter combo pairs

  1. 1-1 Tier 1 NYA lineup vs. Tier 1 HOU starter —> 4.3 runs for NYA
  2. 1-4 Tier 1 HOU lineup vs. Tier 4 NYA starter —> 5.2 runs for HOU

That is quite a spread that should yield > 60% for HOU tonight which is where the betting market is at right now.  Both lines in this game are a discard, do not bet.

The Yankees have the best team according to this data model of the 4 teams left in the playoffs.  Both the Cubs and Yankees will be crippled the first two games  because their pitchers need time to recuperate and that won’t happen until Game 3 when their best starters can pitch again.

If Tanaka pitches according to his capability, what he showed pitching in JPL and for the Yankees last season, this becomes an even steven 50/50 game and the NYA line would be a betting opportunity.    If Keuchel flubs and the Yankees get into HOU relief this becomes a 50/50 game.  The betting market has undervalued the Yankees in these playoffs so far so there may be some true opportunities in upcoming games this series.  We don’t bet on ifs ands or buts so officially  game 1 is a discard.