ALCS Game 3

I’m reaching the point of burn out with the Cubs down 0-2 in NLCS and there aren’t many betting opportunities in the playoffs.  Betting opportunities only occur when there is irrational exuberance based upon fans wanting their team to win thus pushing the line away from its true probability.  The Yankees have not been given respect in these playoffs.  They play tonight so let’s look at what the Ouija Board says.

DATE 10_16 8:05_PM HOU NYA
LINEAWAY HOU [ 0.465 ] < 0.444 >
STARTAWAY 2.46(0.575) Charlie_Morton_HOU
LINEHOME NYA [ 0.556 ] < 0.574 >
STARTHOME 2.21(0.567) CC_Sabathia_NYA
HOU 101 61 NYA 91 71

Today both pitchers, same tier, and each starting lineup is Tier 1.  Below is the value chart again.

TeamID Hitters Pitchers Starters Relief Total W-L
NYA 23.76 27.71 11.05 16.66 51.47 20
HOU 25.58 20.83 17.85 2.98 46.41 40
LAN 12.18 33.80 19.90 13.90 45.98 46
CHN 18.85 20.93 7.41 13.52 39.78 22

Since the lineup-starter combo pairs are identical that makes this a 50/50 game or flip of a coin.  The Yankees have the best relief squad in MLB (if we listed all 30 teams).   Although slightly above average, HOU relief may be Tier 4.  This should push the line in the Yankees favor.

We won’t finish lineup-relief tables until off season.  Relief pitching typically represents 1/3 of each baseball game.   Normally relief squads aren’t that far apart.  The Dodgers and Cubs have similar valued relief squads.

There is one other wild card in this game, CC Sabathia, a pitcher who has been around for a very long time.  Here is his post season numbers.

Rank WAA IP ERA Gs Gr Name_TeamID Pos
-013- -2.50 107.3 4.53 18 4 CC_Sabathia_TOT PITCH

He’s ranked #13 in the bottom 200 of all players in the playoff season dating back to 1903.  He pitched well against Cleveland and NYA have the relievers to back him up.  Houston has a Tier 1 lineup and the above shows a Tier 5 pitcher in the playoffs.  If the Yankees lineup get into HOU relief the Astros will be in trouble.

If this is a even steven, flip of a coin game then HOU is under valued at 0.444 because our expected probability is 0.500 (for argument sake).  We typically want a margin between .07 to .10 to compensate for any errors and this wouldn’t quite cut it but it’s close.

That is all for now.  Until then….