NLCS Game 3

This is a must win game for the Cubs and here is what the Ouija Board says.

DATE 10_17 9:00_PM LAN CHN
LINEAWAY LAN [ 0.483 ] < 0.502 >
STARTAWAY 2.16(0.552) Yu_Darvish_TOT
LINEHOME CHN [ 0.539 ] < 0.522 >
STARTHOME 4.26(0.637) Kyle_Hendricks_CHN

The markets are calling this a 50/50 game with  Cubs bettors paying the juice.  Hendricks is a better pitcher than Darvish.  Let’s look at a bigger value table.

TeamID Hitters Pitchers Starters Relief Total W-L
WAS 22.21 32.34 21.09 11.25 54.55 32
NYA 23.76 27.71 11.05 16.66 51.47 20
CLE 19.30 28.61 17.35 11.26 47.91 42
HOU 25.58 20.83 17.85 2.98 46.41 40
LAN 10.42 31.72 19.90 11.82 42.14 46
ARI 15.99 24.49 15.98 8.51 40.48 24
CHN 18.85 19.74 7.41 12.33 38.59 22
COL 19.80 7.53 -0.11 7.64 27.33 12
BOS 7.56 19.71 8.69 11.02 27.27 24
MIN 9.41 -4.08 -6.51 2.43 5.33 8

Above is the value table of all 10 playoff teams using current rosters to provide some context.  The Yankees made some deals before the trade deadline that  boosted their team.  It doesn’t matter what the regular season win/loss says now, what matters is the current talent on each playoff roster.  The above table is sorted by team total value according to this data model.

The Cubs have a better lineup than LAN and a better starter on the mound tonight.  Relief is about the same.  The Cubs should be favored more than 0.522 but we can’t tell how much right now.   The best teams usually end up in the playoffs and we don’t have this handicapping model ready to discern between all these high Tiers each team has.   Eyeballing this I would guess the Cubs may be around 56% with the pitchers and lineup advantage.  There is also home field advantage that could push things towards the Cubs but we haven’t event figured out how to factor that in either.

That’s all I can write about this game.  We have been doing this all season and hopefully by next season we’ll have a very good and proven handicapping model in place.  The Cubs need to win at least two out of three at home and Hendricks is their best regular season pitcher.  Like last year when they were down 1-3,  take it one game at a time.  This year at least one of the final games will be in LA.